Which Streaking UFC Fighters Are About to Hit a Wall?
The UFC has a sizable list of fighters who are working their way up with significant win streaks. This list includes champions Jon Jones (11 wins), Chris Weidman (eight wins) and Demetrious Johnson (seven wins). UFC 179 headliners Jose Aldo (six wins) and Chad Mendes (five wins) will eliminate one lengthy streak next Saturday.
But which non-champions are about to hit a wall in their quest to wear gold?
First, we had to assess the fighters on win streaks. We set a baseline of five consecutive UFC victories, but there were two exceptions to that loose rule. Next, we had to establish how to judge if the fighter would hit a wall. The best way is to take an educated look at the fighter, his recent wins, potential opposition and outside factors. We need some probabilities.
Rafael Assuncao is a great test subject.
He is on the brink of earning a title shot. If not for Dominick Cruz's return to the division, he would be next in line for T.J. Dillashaw's title. Will he hit a wall? Perhaps, but he also holds a split-decision win over the champion. He has a great shot to become the man at 135 pounds, and as such we will not include him as a fighter about to hit the wall.
Without further ado, here are the six fighters who do not have a great probability of keeping their UFC streaks alive as we move closer to 2015.
Dennis Bermudez
1 of 6
UFC Win Streak: Seven
Defeated Fighters: Pablo Garza, Tommy Hayden, Matt Grice, Max Holloway, Steven Siler, Jimy Hettes, Clay Guida
If there is one fighter in the featherweight division who is deserving of a top-tier fight, it is Dennis Bermudez.
Not only is he on a seven-fight win streak, but he has been beating quality competition during the run. So, why does he have a low probability of continuing his winning ways?
The featherweight division is deep. Very deep. Even still, the elite of the division is on another playing field, and Bermudez is about to step through that gate. He will be a significant underdog against any of the fighters ranked above him, as he sits as the No. 8-ranked contender.
Defeating Ricardo Lamas or even Conor McGregor does not look likely for Bermudez. His run is impressive, and he has earned a big fight, but don't expect an eighth win if the UFC books him against one of the upper-echelon featherweights.
Conor McGregor
2 of 6
UFC Win Streak: Four
Defeated Opponents: Marcus Brimage, Max Holloway, Diego Brandao, Dustin Poirier
McGregor is one of our exceptions. He is one short of having five consecutive wins but finds his way here because of his quick rise. After dispatching Poirier in his last outing, he jumped to being the No. 5-ranked featherweight.
The Irishman will go to Brazil to watch Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes. While a title shot for McGregor is not guaranteed, it appears that is what the UFC is looking toward. And that is why he will struggle to move to five wins under the bright lights of the UFC.
McGregor's development has surprised most, if not all, viewers. He came in with hype and has exceeded it in a short amount of time. Even so, taking on the likes of Aldo, Mendes, Edgar and Swanson is a big jump.
His brashness has earned him a premier spot in the UFC, but it has also earned him a beating against the featherweight elite.
Cub Swanson
3 of 6
UFC Win Streak: Six
Defeated Opponents: George Roop, Ross Pearson, Charles Oliveira, Dustin Poirier, Dennis Siver, Jeremy Stephens
The No. 2-ranked featherweight is a curious case. He is clearly one of the best featherweights going right now, but he has a November date against No. 3-ranked Frankie Edgar.
Swanson is fun, but Edgar is just a perfect foil for this streak. He is too technical and smart. Swanson has failed every time going up against top-tier fighters. He was close to a WEC title shot, and Jose Aldo beat him in eight seconds. He was set to introduce himself to the UFC audience, and Ricardo Lamas finished him violently.
He has grown as a fighter since those losses, but Edgar is a very tall task. Swanson is a live underdog in that fight but more so based solely on his big power. He is capable of landing the blow that will shut off Edgar's lights. The odds are just not in his favor.
Getting to seven victories would be a major surprise.
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Donald Cerrone
4 of 6
UFC Win Streak: Five
Defeated Opponents: Evan Dunham, Adriano Martins, Edson Barboza, Jim Miller, Eddie Alvarez
The No. 4-ranked fighter in the lightweight division is one of the UFC's most entertaining fighters. He is a character outside of the cage and a furious competitor inside of it.
Four of his five wins during this streak have come in 2014, and he is looking for another fight before the end of the year. With Anthony Pettis and Gilbert Melendez booked and Khabib Nurmagomedov on the mend, that doesn't leave many top-tier options for Cerrone.
So, why is he on this list?
Fighting this often takes a toll, and so do Cerrone's antics outside of the cage like wakeboarding during fight week. And now he is in a position where he is taking on the upper echelon of the division consistently. In fact, it appears Myles Jury is next.
Jury has a favorable matchup against Cerrone. He is more conservative and well-rounded. He won't go for the home run shot that leaves him open. They share the same 73" reach, which will make it more difficult for Cerrone to pick him apart. This particular matchup is also what will keep Jury off this list.
The combination of factors for Cerrone spells doom for his win streak. The toll on his body and high level of opposition will catch up to him very soon.
Yoel Romero
5 of 6
UFC Win Streak: Five
Defeated Opponents: Clifford Starks, Ronny Markes, Derek Brunson, Brad Tavares, Tim Kennedy
Romero has leaped to No. 6 in the middleweight division, but his last outing was very controversial.
Arguably, he should have lost to Kennedy by not answering the bell after being rocked at the end of the second round. The referee and commission officials may have made a mistake, but the end result was a TKO win for Romero.
Does he rematch Kennedy next? If so, the last fight seemed to favor Kennedy until the final round. If the UFC continues to move Romero up the ladder, that means a bout with a Top Five fighter is next. If that is the case, bye-bye streak.
Romero has excellent wrestling and big power, but the Top Five middleweights are exceptional: Luke Rockhold, Lyoto Machida, Vitor Belfort, Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza and Anderson Silva (plus champion Chris Weidman). Those are his potential opponents outside of Kennedy. There is a low possibility Romero wins any of those matchups.
At 37 years old, his window is closing fast, and against that level of competition, his title hopes are almost assuredly shut and locked.
Cat Zingano
6 of 6
UFC Win Streak: Two
Defeated Opponents: Miesha Tate, Amanda Nunes
Zingano is undefeated at 9-0 and is one of the feel-good stories of 2014. Two big TKO wins inside the UFC have earned her a shot at Ronda Rousey and the UFC women's bantamweight strap.
That's why she is listed here. Her odds of defeating Rousey are slim at best.
Zingano is one of the few true athletes in the division. She also has fantastic jiu-jitsu and good power in her strikes. She is a dangerous opponent, but Rousey is just on a whole other level. With her undefeated record and back-to-back wins in the Octagon, Zingano is in danger of being embarrassed. Because that's what Rousey does.
It would be a huge shock if Zingano managed to walk away with the belt.
She is walking into the lion's den against the fiercest competitor on the roster. The feel-good ride comes to an end in early 2015 when the cage door shuts.
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