Arsenal vs. Hull City Preview: Mesut Ozil Injury a Blessing in Disguise?
Arsenal resume Premier League action on Saturday at home to Hull City, and they'll be looking to add another win to a column that appears fairly light on victories thus far.
With just one three-point haul from their last six games—including ties with Leicester City and 17th-placed Everton—fans at the Emirates will be expecting a positive, apologetic performance.
Hull, meanwhile, are showing major inconsistencies and frailties in their defensive setup, but continue to eke out meaningful points where possible and currently sit 11th in the table.
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Let's take a tactical look at this match.
Arsenal Setup
According to The Daily Mail, Arsenal have 10 first-team players unavailable for this fixture.
Laurent Koscielny, Olivier Giroud, Mesut Ozil, Mathieu Debuchy, Aaron Ramsey and Yaya Sanogo are all out. Tomas Rosicky, David Ospina, Mikel Arteta and Abou Diaby are doubts, while Calum Chambers is suspended.
It leaves Arsene Wenger, for want of a better phrase, in a bit of a hole. He's faced with the prospect of playing Nacho Monreal at centre-back alongside Per Mertesacker, else he risks Isaac Hayden's debut.
Hector Bellerin will likely come in on the right flank, and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain should nail a wing role in the absence of Ozil due to knee ligament damage.
Crippling injuries, selection issues and potential youth debuts. This couldn't be more Arsenal.
Hull City Setup
Steve Bruce will have to work out whether he wants to play 3-5-2 or a variation of a four-man defence. He's tried both this season with varying results despite nailing the three-man line in 2013-14.
Against Crystal Palace the 3-5-2 worked a treat, leading to a 2-0 victory, but perhaps one of the Tigers' more impressive showings this season came against West Ham in a 4-4-2 diamond.
Bruce is still trying to work out how to add his new, luxury attacking options into his workmanlike side, with Hatem Ben Arfa and Gaston Ramirez both arriving on deadline day despite Hull's midfield looking fairly packed.
There is some clarity up front, though, as Abel Hernandez and Nikica Jelavic seem likely to continue as an effective striking pair.
Key Point 1: Sans Ozil
It feels like we've run this race 1,000 times, but we'll give it one last hurrah: Mesut Ozil was misused by Wenger and, as a result of that mismanagement, played poorly, out-of-position and in a timid, restrained fashion.
Fans reached their wits' end with Wenger after watching Ozil play well from his natural role (the No. 10 slot) against Aston Villa and Galatasaray, only to see him restored to the wings again to turn in drab showings against bigger, better opposition.
The use of the German on the flanks has become incomprehensible, and his injury has essentially removed a giant headache from the equation for both manager and fans.
Now, Arsenal are set to line up in a 4-3-3 formation with the correct personnel: Alexis Sanchez and Oxlade-Chamberlain wide, and capable, flat central midfielders in Jack Wilshere and Santi Cazorla.
No longer is the flank Ozil plays on a target for opposing teams to funnel the ball through, and no longer will his lack of athleticism hinder the Gunners moving the ball up the wings.
Key Point 2: Hull City's Pressure Points
A conservative guess on how possession will split is about 65-35 percent in favour of Arsenal, and Hull will try and lock the gate if possible, defending first and foremost with men behind the ball.
Where Arsenal can be a serious threat, though, is they can effectively punish Hull in what Jose Mourinho calls the "fourth phase." There's attacking, defending, counterattacking and, finally, countering the counter.
The Gunners showed glimpses of what they can do against a three-man line vs. Galatasaray, with Alexis and Danny Welbeck combining to torture the Turks in the channels. The gaps between wing-backs and outside centre-backs widen when a team in a 3-5-2 counters; if Arsenal can steal the ball while being countered and countered back, they'd split Michael Dawson in two with ease.
That fourth phase countering is something both Mourinho and Andre Villas-Boas value highly, and much of Chelsea's 2013-14 success (despite not winning a title) was built on it. Hull, on paper, look the perfect victim for this method.
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