Fantasy Football 2014: Top 10 RBs to Target or Avoid in Trades

Fantasy football trade season is in full swing. Researching the running back strength of schedule reveals which ones are best to target and which ones are best to avoid. Read this list so you’ll know if you should keep or deal studs like Giovani Bernard, Marshawn Lynch and LeSean McCoy.

The most important aspect of weighing any trade is knowing when the trade deadline is in your league. All the speculation below is moot if you don’t get the deal done before the deadline.

CBS Sports’ trade deadline strikes during Week 11; ESPN, Yahoo and NFL.com block trades during Week 12.

Guidelines

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

The running backs on this list are ranked based on strength of schedule from Week 7 on, according to Fantasy Pros.

Strength of schedule is determined by Fantasy Pros’ points allowed to RBs statistics. The average RB PA is 18.4. Atlanta comes in last, allowing 29.4 points per game. Buffalo is the toughest, permitting only 10.1 PPG.

Individual fantasy scoring is reported from ESPN’s standard scoring list.

Bye weeks are figured into this assessment.

The end of the fantasy regular season for this ranking is considered Week 13. The fantasy playoffs are Weeks 14-16, ignoring the often chaotic Week 17. If your league plays through Week 17, all I can do is offer my condolences.

Honorable Mention

Cliff McBride/Getty Images

Target

Joique Bell first, then Reggie Bush as an alternative or handcuff. The rest of Detroit’s opponents average 18.3 PPG in RB PA, including Tampa Bay (23.1 points per game), Minnesota (24.0) and Chicago (16.7) in the fantasy playoffs.

Justin Forsett first, then Bernard Pierce as an alternative or handcuff. Baltimore’s toughest opponent in RB PA is San Diego (16.3) in Week 13.

Avoid

Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman or whoever is toting the rock for the Broncos. Denver’s passing rate is 58 percent, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). That number is sure to increase considering a Week 10 date with Miami (18.6) is the easiest of the final six games.

Rashad Jennings and/or Andre Williams. The Giants' passing game lost its top playmaker when Victor Cruz tore his patella tendon in Week 6. Seattle (14.6), San Francisco (11.6), Washington (11.7) and St. Louis (13.2) will devote even more attention to stopping the run without the star slot receiver.

10. Target: Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers

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Lacy is the ultimate boom-or-bust candidate on this list, which is why he rounds out the bottom of the rankings.

He’s already sustained two concussions a year-and-a-quarter into his NFL career, according to Sports Injury Predictor. SIP ranks him the No. 2 injury risk among RBs.

James Starks crept onto the field in several games this season to trouble Lacy owners about a potential committee situation, according to Pro Football Reference:

Lacy and Starks' 2014 rushing attempts

Player	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4	Wk 5	Wk 6	Total
Lacy	12	13	11	17	13	14	80
Starks	7	0	8	0	12	8	35

Starks could be a legitimate time-stealing concern, especially considering he outpaces Lacy in yards per attempt 4.3 to 3.8, according to Pro Football Reference.

So why would someone want to trade for this potential bust?

Lacy’s ceiling is high in this powerful Packers offense, as evidenced by his sixth-place finish among fantasy RBs in 2013. If he can stay healthy and keep Starks on the bench, Green Bay faces the third-most generous schedule of defenses in RB PA, averaging 18.9 PPG.

Lacy becomes a more palatable trade target the lower the asking price or the higher the selling price. Make sure you’re comfortable with this high-risk/high-reward scenario.

9. Avoid: Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals

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Ellington’s name is synonymous with “questionable” so far this season. The nagging foot injury only kept him out of practice, which he missed again Wednesday, according to Rotoworld.

SIP ranks him the No. 1 NFL RB most likely to be injured this season.

He’s averaging 11.2 PPG through five games, tied for eighth with Justin Forsett (!). Part of his success is thanks to a lack of competition at RB—Rashard Mendenhall retired, and the team suspended Jonathan Dwyer.

Lack of consistency at quarterback is another factor. Drew Stanton took more snaps than Carson Palmer through the first five games (181-149) due to Palmer’s odd nerve ailment.

If the injury concerns landed Ellington on the “sell-high” list, than his playoff schedule throttles him into the top five.

Arizona faces St. Louis (13.2 PPG) and Seattle (14.6) twice in the last seven games, adding an unfavorable tilt against Detroit (14.2) for good measure. Atlanta (29.4) offers the only reprieve in Week 13.

Ellington’s playoff slate against Kansas City (15.1), St. Louis and Seattle is tied for the toughest in the league, averaging 14.3 RB PA per opponent.

Ellington should pad his stats over the next two weeks, facing Oakland (22.8) and Philadelphia (20.1).

Sell him high while you still can.

8. Target: Ben Tate, Cleveland Browns

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

Tate would be higher ranked on this list if he hadn’t already missed 27 games in just his fifth year out of Auburn. That’s a lot of games missed considering he topped 200 touches only once—215 in 2013—serving primarily as Arian Foster’s backup in Houston.

Cleveland’s offensive strength is up front, boasting the top offensive line in the league according to PFF’s first offensive line rankings of 2014. The problem is that unit lost its leader to a broken fibula in Week 6.

Pro Bowler Alex Mack—ranked third among centers, according to PFF—might be lost for the season. This is a devastating blow, sending ripples throughout the Browns offense, as noted by SI.com’s Greg A. Bedard:

"

For starters, he has been the definition of reliable. Since Cleveland took him 21st overall in 2009, Mack has started all 85 games and played 5,279 snaps before Sunday’s injury late in the second quarter on Sunday.

He’s one of the smartest offensive linemen in the league. Since his first NFL game, Mack has been in charge of setting protections and run-blocking assignments. As far as pre-snap adjustments, Mack has had as much on his plate as any of Cleveland’s quarterbacks during his tenure.

"

It remains to be seen how the Browns O-line rebounds with guard John Greco moving to center and reserve veteran Paul McQuistan stepping in at guard.

All this uncertainty is really a shame since Cleveland is already beyond its bye and only faces one tough defense in RB PA the rest of the season: Buffalo in Week 13 (10.1 PPG). Keep an eye on Tate and the reworked O-line’s progress against a spongy Jaguars run defense (30th in RB PA, 23.5 PPG).

Rookie Isaiah Crowell—undrafted out of Alabama State (Go Hornets!)—is the obvious handcuff if Tate continues to struggle with injuries.

7. Target: Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills

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Few will lift the caveat from Jackson as long as C.J. Spiller lingers in his shadow. Jackson is once again the lead back in Buffalo, as exposed in Week 6 (stats listed according to PFR, except snap count, which is provided by PFF):

Jackson vs. Spiller, Week 6

Player	Snaps	Touches	Yards	TDs	Fumbles
Jackson	52	14	43	1	0
Spiller	12	6	19	0	1

General manager Doug Whaley initiated a “win-now-or-else” approach when he traded next year’s first- and fourth-rounders to move up and take Sammy Watkins in the 2014 draft. Head coach Doug Marrone confirmed it when he benched franchise prospect EJ Manuel for the journeyman Kyle Orton in Week 5.

All this haste is predicated on Terry Pegula’s $1.4 billion purchase of the Bills franchise from the estate of founder Ralph Wilson Jr. It’s often a new owner’s prerogative to clean up a floundering franchise. Buffalo qualifies as the last remaining NFL team that hasn’t participated in the postseason during the 21st century.

With that said, why would Marrone and Whaley trust this guy with their jobs when they have a capable and talented veteran presence in Jackson?

They don’t.

If Jackson maintains his expanded role, he’s got a lot of daylight ahead of him Weeks 13-16: Cleveland (22.2), Denver (19.1), Green Bay (21.1) and Oakland (22.8). Those four defenses combined average 21.3 PA, the most favorable four-game stretch of any back on this list.

The Jackson owner in your league probably doesn’t know what’s going on in media-forsaken Buffalo.

Take advantage, and buy low on Jackson while the price is right.

6. Avoid: Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs

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Savvy fantasy owners knew it would be a tougher season for 2013’s top rusher (18.4 PPG).

Left tackle Branden Albert (Miami) and guards Jon Asamoah (Atlanta) and Geoff Schwartz (New York Giants) all skipped town as soon as the 2014 free-agency period opened. That wrecked any semblance of last year’s No. 8-ranked O-line, leaving a tattered, seventh-worst-ranked shadow in its place, according to PFF.

Not surprisingly, Charles is producing at nearly half the rate he was last year at this time.

Charles burst into his 2013 season blistering defenses for 18.7 PPG through Week 6. He’s on a 9.5 PPG pace this year, not including the Week 3 game he missed due to injury.

This would seem enough evidence to classify Charles as a bust, but the experts still have him ranked third among RBs, according to Fantasy Pros’ rest of the season list.

Is potential weighted higher than any other metric?!

Maybe the experts don’t realize Kansas City encounters five brutal run defenses through the next five weeks: San Diego (16.3), St. Louis (13.2), the Jets (13.5), Buffalo (10.1) and Seattle (14.6).

If you’re really shrewd, you’d sell Charles high now, only to buy him back low in Week 12. Read some Gordon Gekko quotes (NSFW) for inspiration.

5. Avoid: Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers

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Conventional wisdom states that workhorse RBs have a shorter shelf life than full-time starters at other positions. Gore bucks that trend at 31 years old.

But San Francisco hedged its bets just in case.

The 49ers spent a 2014 second-round draft pick on Carlos Hyde from Ohio State, the third RB selected (No. 57 overall). The rookie nearly halved Gore’s carries so far—45 to 93—and doubled him in rushing touchdowns—two to one.

But Gore is still tops in yards per attempt, leading Hyde 4.3 to 3.4.

The problem for Gore owners is Hyde presents the first legitimate San Francisco RB2 who can vulture the all-important goal-line carries. Whereas Gore reaped most of the red-zone opportunities over his previous backups—like Kendall Hunter and Anthony Dixon—Hyde actually leads Gore in chances and production, according to CBS Sports:

Gore vs. Hyde in red-zone production

Player	Att.	Yds.	Avg.	TDs	Pts.	Rank
Hyde	14	36	2.6	2	15	T-19th
Gore	9	18	2.0	1	7	T-42nd

San Francisco rides a roller coaster of a schedule down the stretch in terms of its opponents' RB PA. The 15.7 PPG over the next 10 weeks ranks second worst on this list and 26th out of the top 30 RBs, according to Fantasy Pros.

If you can pawn Gore off to an unsuspecting owner, you probably won’t regret it.

4. Target: Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers

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Bell is quietly lighting up the fantasy scoreboard in Pittsburgh, ranked fifth with 79 total points.

This top-five performance remains undetected partially because he’s only scored once, keeping him off SportsCenter’s radar.

Bell ranks second in yards from scrimmage, piling up 790 through six games. PFF grades him second overall among running backs, in between Ahmad Bradshaw and Marshawn Lynch.

Pittsburgh signed free agent LeGarrette Blount this offseason presumably to compete with Bell for RB1. But there’s no comparison, with Bell outpacing Blount 133 to 40 in overall touches, according to PFR.

A Week 12 bye will be painful for Bell owners, but his next four opponents average 20.1 PPG allowed to RBs.

The only blemish on Bell’s 2014 resume is his arrest for suspicion of DUI in August. His defense attorney Robert Del Greco Jr. told The Associated Press' Joe Mandak Bell won’t serve the two-game suspension the NFL will likely impose until the court proceedings wrap up early next year.

Bell would be the top-ranked target if Pittsburgh’s scoring offense weren’t an uninspiring 23rd in the league, averaging 20.7 PPG.

Still, trading for Bell is really a no-brainer, especially if you can deal one of the more avoidable players on this list.

3. Target: Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals

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Like Gore, Bernard watched as his team drafted a running back in the second round—Jeremy Hill from LSU, the second RB taken (No. 55 overall).

The difference is Cincinnati was looking to replace BenJarvus Green-Ellis, not Bernard—its 22-year-old all-purpose fantasy stud.

Bernard’s 5’9”, 208-pound frame disguises his capability as an every-down back, not a third-down change of pace. He ranks third in average RB scoring at 15.2 PPG.

Cincinnati’s stretch run looks spectacular because the bye week is already past and Baltimore (12.2 PPG) is the only strong defense in RB PA left (Week 8).

The toughest part of targeting Bernard in a trade is he’s really a “buy-high” type who most likely won’t come cheap. But if you’ve got the reserves to make a bold move, Bernard should carry your backfield well in the money rounds.

2. Avoid: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks

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Lynch is arguably the largest focal point of his offense compared to the others on this list. But Seattle’s shift in usage might be the key to his long-term durability, according to PFR. (Percentage of total stat is Lynch's percentage of Seattle's total yardage gained).

Lynch rushing/receiving distribution

Season	YPG Rush	YPG Recv.	% of Total
2014	73.4	25.4	28.3
2013	78.6	19.8	27.6
2012	99.4	12.3	30.7

Lynch’s contribution to Seattle’s offensive performance diminishes as do his rushing yards per game. This is to be expected of a 28-year-old NFL RB.

But offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell found a new role for Lynch as a primary pass-catcher, as demonstrated by his receiving yards per game doubling from two seasons ago.

This strategy worked particularly well against Washington—ranked third in RB PA at 11.7 PPG—in Week 5. Lynch supplemented merely 79 rushing yards with 45 receiving and a touchdown.

But Dallas revealed to the league how to successfully stop Lynch’s new style—yielding 61 yards on 10 rushes and one yard on one reception.

A defense with a versatile linebacker like Rolando McClain can impede the run game while eliminating the short passing game. Then the team can play an old-school, ball-control style offense like the one Dallas unveiled this year with DeMarco Murray. The Cowboys dominated time of possession—37:39 to 22:21—and mitigated Lynch’s impact by keeping him on the sidelines.

Kansas City (15.1 PPG), Arizona (11.9) and San Francisco (11.6) can reasonably mimic the Cowboys' model. That’s bad news for Lynch owners, because Seattle faces these three teams five times in the last six weeks.

Lynch is a perfect sell-high candidate with favorable matchups against Carolina (23.1), Oakland (22.8) and the New York Giants (23.0) in Weeks 8-10.

Don’t hang on to him too long, especially if you can score a couple of studs in return.

1. Avoid: LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles

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Crazy, right?

It’s not like I’m saying you should dump the consensus No. 1 overall draft pick, according to Fantasy Pros’ average draft position composite. But if you can sell high, you might want to in order to avoid future disappointment.

McCoy just isn’t playing the same all-purpose role with Darren Sproles added to Chip Kelly’s quiver this season, according to PFR.

McCoy's receiving stats through Week 6

Year	Tgt.	Avg.	Recp.	Avg.	Yds.	Avg.	TDs	Fum.
2014	19	3.2	16	2.7	74	4.6	0	2
2013	64	4.0	54	3.4	539	10.4	2	1

McCoy’s diminished yards per reception is the most notable change from his spectacular 2013 campaign.

Those missing 5.8 YPC and then some belong to Sproles, who’s flaunting 12.4 YPC on 16 receptions. It will be the highest YPC of the 5’6”, 181-pound speedster’s explosive career if he maintains this pace. His previous high is 11.8 in 2008 with San Diego, according to PFR.

Philadelphia’s troubles start up front, where last year’s top-rated O-line tumbled to 17th in PFF’s rankings. The optimum starting five—Jason Peters, Evan Mathis, Jason Kelce, Todd Herremans and Lane Johnson—won’t reunite until late in the season, which is exactly when the Eagles’ schedule intensifies.

McCoy and the Eagles face Seattle (14.6), Dallas (16.5) and Washington (11.7) in the fantasy playoffs. That trio ties Arizona for the toughest opposing run defenses in RB PA combined at 14.3.

I’m not an advocate for selling McCoy at any price, but now is the time to reap some top-tier talent in return. Otherwise, your fellow owners might realize his No. 19 ranking among fantasy RBs is not a fluke.

Running backs are still the most coveted commodity in fantasy football. Explore your options carefully, and maybe consult an expert or two before ultimately making moves involving these high-impact pieces.