Predicting the Preseason AP All-American Teams for the 2014-15 Season

It's odd to ask a writer with his own idiosyncratic rules for preseason All-American selection to try to handicap who the Associated Press will choose as its top 15 college basketball players in America.

However, this is where we find ourselves today. The AP is preparing its ballots as we speak, and it's a crapshoot as to which way the votes will fall. This is a wide-open season in which any number of players could earn a spot among the best in America. After all, there's not a single returning player who made any of the AP's All-American quintets in 2013-14.

We won't know exactly how the AP will vote until the ballots get counted, but here's our best guess.

Third Team

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F Cliff Alexander, Kansas

We could probably flip a coin between Alexander and teammate Perry Ellis. Alexander could average a double-double, which is the kind of gaudy stat that will get voters' attention. Consider this a vote for the new and exciting over the proven and steady.

G Aaron Harrison, Kentucky

Harrison's shooting heroics in the NCAA tournament will put him in voters' minds just ahead of his twin brother. Truthfully, it'll be hard for any Wildcat to put up All-American caliber numbers if John Calipari stays with the reported two-platoon system. If more than one player does, it probably means UK's averaging 90-plus points per game and Big Blue Nation is intoxicated with 40-0 talk.

F Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Arizona

Hollis-Jefferson will still be one of the West's top defenders whether his promised shooting improvement comes about. If it does, he'll be one of the nation's most difficult players to stop on either end.

G Caris LeVert, Michigan

LeVert's played a very strong supporting role for Michigan during his first two seasons. Now, he gets to be a versatile leader for a talented young Wolverine backcourt. If he can remain a 40 percent three-point shooter without Nik Stauskas to draw attention, he'll contend for Big Ten Player of the Year.

F Terran Petteway, Nebraska

Petteway returns in search of his second straight Big Ten scoring title and leads a team looking to continue one of last year's top feel-good stories. He'll have to contribute even more on the glass, and it'll help if he doesn't repeat last year's late-season shooting slump.

Second Team

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F Sam Dekker, Wisconsin

Dekker could easily replace the shooting lost through Ben Brust's graduation, and he's a much more difficult matchup at 6'9". Defending both he and Frank Kaminsky will be nearly impossible when both have their shots falling.

F Stanley Johnson, Arizona

If Hollis-Jefferson is a lottery pick, Johnson is a contender for No. 1. While not a dominant shooting threat, Johnson at least has to be respected. That's more than defenses were willing to do for Hollis-Jefferson last season. And Johnson's every bit as dedicated to his defense and rebounding.

G Juwan Staten, West Virginia

If WVU hadn't lost any transfers from last year's squad, it would be a near-lock to make the NCAA tournament. The fact that there's still a chance is a testament to coach Bob Huggins and indomitable point guard Staten. The rare double of Big 12 scoring and assist crowns should be very well within Staten's reach, especially if he overcomes his allergy to the three-point line.

G Fred VanVleet, Wichita State

Wichita State still carries top-10 potential, largely due to VanVleet's steady leadership. Here's an interesting number from Wichita's lengthy unbeaten run: VanVleet played 511 more minutes as a sophomore than he did as a freshman. In all that extra time, he committed two more turnovers. He'll rarely score 20 points in a game, but he won't cost his team any games either.

G Delon Wright, Utah

Now here's a point guard who'll score 20 points for his team. Wright posted eight 20-point nights for the Utes, six of them in Pac-12 play. With Arizona being much more than the sum of its individual parts, Wright should be considered one of the favorites—if not the favorite—for Pac-12 Player of the Year.

First Team: F Montrezl Harrell, Louisville

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2013-14 Stats: 14.0 points, 8.4 rebounds, 60.9 FG%

Most first-team All-Americans are their teams' top scoring options. Louisville junior forward Montrezl Harrell might be, or he could end up third on the team. After all, senior guard Chris Jones likes his shot a lot—only Harrell took more shots among returnees—and even coach Rick Pitino told The Courier-Journal's Jeff Greer that he expects a breakout sophomore season from his other guard, Terry Rozier.

To show you how rare Harrell's return to Louisville is, consider this: According to Sports-Reference.com's Player Season Finder, only one power-conference player in the past five years has recorded back-to-back seasons of more than 14 points and eight rebounds per game. That player? Ohio State's Jared Sullinger.

Sullinger made first-team All-American both years. With the elevation of Harrell's profile after his return to school and Louisville's move to the ACC, it would be a surprise if Harrell doesn't reach the same level.

First Team: C Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin

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2013-14 Stats: 13.9 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, 37.8 3-pt. FG%

It would only be fair for Frank Kaminsky to donate a portion of his first NBA paycheck to the University of North Dakota. After all, Kaminsky's school-record 43 points against the Team Formerly Known as the Fighting Sioux put the Wisconsin 7-footer on the national radar. One catchy nickname ("Frank the Tank"), 34 games and one Final Four trip later, his profile has skyrocketed.

Kaminsky aims to become the second Badger to lead the team in scoring and rebounding twice in a row under coach Bo Ryan. The first was forward Jon Leuer, who was named an honorable mention All-American after his senior season in 2011.

Here's the rub, though: Leuer didn't lead his team to a Final Four. Kaminsky has a chance to make two. Winning in March gets the voters' attention in April, and it does the same the following October.

First Team: F Georges Niang, Iowa State

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2013-14 Stats: 16.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists

March was a rough month for Iowa State star Georges Niang. First, he took an elbow to the eye in a Big 12 semifinal win over Kansas that left him bleeding like Ric Flair in his prime. Then, he suffered a broken foot in an NCAA tournament win over North Carolina Central.

With an eye (sorry) toward reducing the burden on his feet and increasing his explosiveness on the court, Niang set about losing 25 pounds this offseason. He's set to play somewhere around 230 this year, down from 255 last season.

His shrinking waistline will coincide with an expanded role, as the Cyclones will carry on without Melvin Ejim and DeAndre Kane this year. Potential replacements Dustin Hogue and Bryce Dejean-Jones are solid performers, but defenses will key much more on Niang and dare others to beat them.

It's not inconceivable that Niang could lead Iowa State in scoring and assists, even with point guard Monte Morris carrying a bigger load. He'll enter the year as a Big 12 Player of the Year favorite.

First Team: C Jahlil Okafor, Duke

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2013-14 Stats: DNP

The lone freshman on the first team, Duke big man Jahlil Okafor still stands head and shoulders above the rest of the class of 2014. He'll enter a team that's a Final Four favorite, but only if Okafor plays to the level that most observers expect.

CBSSports.com named Okafor its preseason National Player of the Year, and there's little reason to expect he can't reach those heights. Gary Parrish's explanation of the Okafor selection indicates that no one at Duke is even attempting to pump the brakes on expectations for the Chicago native, so why would the AP?

Okafor's the closest thing college basketball has to a guaranteed All-American, at least at this point of the season. If he's still in this rarefied air by season's end, it's likely that Duke had a very successful season. Blue Devil fans at least hope it lasts a weekend or two longer this year.

First Team: G Marcus Paige, North Carolina

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2013-14 Stats: 17.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 38.9 3-pt. FG%, 87.7 FT%

Even though Marcus Paige was the only truly reliable scorer North Carolina had last season, he was still able to produce nearly every time the Tar Heels needed him. Paige routinely seemed invisible in first halves of games, only to explode in the second. He averaged a cool 10.5 points per second half in ACC regular-season games.

With the arrival of sweet-shooting freshman Justin Jackson and the expected breakthroughs of sophomore center Kennedy Meeks and junior forward Brice Johnson, Paige shouldn't have to carry nearly as much of the scoring load this year. He could, however, contend for the ACC assist crown.

Either way, he'll still be the key playmaker for a UNC team that, like ACC rivals Duke, Virginia and Louisville, harbors Final Four ambitions. And he'll be even harder for defenses to focus on in those tense late-game situations. Those buzzer-beating highlights won't hurt his profile one bit.

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