Week 6 NFL Picks: Home Favorites Guaranteed to Cover Spread

No one will ever say that winning a game in the NFL is easy, but if there's one way that victory comes easier it's by playing in the friendly confines of your home stadium. There's a comfort level with the field and weather, as well as your fans' ability to disrupt the opposing team, that makes winning feel natural. 

When you have a week with as many big games as Week 6 does, home-field advantage becomes more critical. The NFL can't plan for marquee matchups in the middle of the season, but it has to be pleased with the volume of key battles on Sunday's schedule. 

Since we know you are buzzing with anticipation for kickoff on Sunday afternoon, we've got picks for all the games and an in-depth look at the home favorites that will have no problem covering the spread. 

Matchup	Pick
New England Patriots (-1) at Buffalo Bills	Patriots, 27-17
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)	Bengals, 28-20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (Pick 'Em)	Browns, 23-20
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins	Packers, 31-17
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (Pick 'Em)	Vikings, 24-21
Denver Broncos (-10) at New York Jets	Broncos, 34-14
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Buccaneers, 27-24
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-4)	Titans, 24-20
San Diego Chargers (-7.5) at Oakland Raiders	Chargers, 31-13
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3)	Falcons, 34-31
Washington at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)	Washington, 26-20
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)	Seahawks, 28-17
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)	Eagles, 28-24
San Francisco 49ers (-3) at St. Louis Rams	49ers, 23-17

Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

This might seem silly considering the Bengals are coming off a blowout loss against New England last week and wide receiver A.J. Green will reportedly not play with a toe injury, per Bob Holtzman of ESPN. 

The Panthers are coming off a nice comeback win against Chicago last week, though this team still doesn't look right. Cam Newton's still fighting the injuries that kept him out in Week 1 and has completed under 60 percent of his passes the last two weeks. He's not running because his body is fragile and the offensive line isn't very good. 

In fact, no one on the Panthers is running. They are 30th in the NFL with 74.8 yards per game on the ground. DeAngelo Williams, who is out with an ankle injury, is the only Carolina back with at least 10 carries who is averaging more than four yards per carry.

Carolina's defense, which played so well in 2013, has been a disappointment this season. The Panthers are allowing 368.4 yards and 24 points per game.

While the Bengals may not be a perfect team, especially with Green missing on offense, they have been fantastic at home. In two games, Marvin Lewis' defense has given up a combined 17 points to Atlanta and Tennessee. 

Until the Panthers show any kind of consistency on either side of the ball, you can't trust them to cover in a big spot. Plus, the Bengals are just a better team at this point in the season. 

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)

The biggest game of the day also looks like a mismatch because Dallas' strength on offense has been Seattle's strength on defense. DeMarco Murray has been a one-man wrecking crew with 670 rushing yards through five weeks. 

According to Fox Sports 1 America's Pregame on Twitter, Murray leads the NFL in four key rushing categories:

Those numbers are incredible, especially when you consider how much the Cowboys used to rely on Tony Romo to win games. However, Murray faces his toughest test of the season against a Seahawks defense that hasn't been run on. 

Pete Carroll's defense has been susceptible to opposing quarterbacks, allowing the 12th-most passing yards per game, and it is tied for 15th with eight passing touchdowns allowed. It's against the run where this team has shined, allowing the fewest yards per game (62.3) and yards per carry (2.6) in the NFL. 

If the Cowboys aren't able to run the ball, that leaves Romo with the task of trying to conquer Seattle's defense. Even though the Seahawks are giving up yards through the air, do you really want to call on Romo to produce in a big spot against Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor?

By the way, Seattle's offense operates on another level at home. The  Seahawks have racked up 62 points and 782 yards in wins over Green Bay and Denver. 

Russell Wilson just keeps getting better. Even though the Seahawks aren't known as a passing team, the third-year quarterback has been money all year, especially in the red zone, per Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk:

Oh yeah, the Seahawks also have the league's best rushing attack (167.3 yards per game). The Cowboys have allowed the second-most yards per carry (5.2) and 122 total yards per game on the ground. 

You can understand why the Cowboys are putting so much into this game, but they are in uncharted waters and it will show when the game is over. 

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

If someone wanted you to sum up the Giants or Eagles in five words or fewer, would you be able to do it in different terms than "uh, I don't really know"?

The Giants have good vibes coming their way thanks to a three-game winning streak in which they've scored 105 points. Yet what do we really know about a team that's beaten Houston, Washington and Atlanta? It's nice that Eli Manning finally seems comfortable in an offense for the first time in two years. 

There are obvious positives to take away from Manning's performance, as Peter King pointed out on The MMQB website:

"

But during the Giants’ three-game winning streak, Manning has been 12% more accurate than his career average—can you believe he completed 70% of his throws against Houston, Washington and Atlanta? Manning has accepted throwing the ball short and letting his receivers, backs and tight ends make plays after the catch. Via Pro Football Focus, check out his release times: He averaged 2.65 seconds after the snap in 2013, but that’s plummeted to 2.26 this fall.

"

Contrast Manning and the Giants with the Eagles, which is really hard to do because they are mirror images in being able to drive you nuts. LeSean McCoy has fallen to pieces with 2.9 yards per carry this season. You can try to blame the injury-plagued offensive line, but how does that explain Darren Sproles averaging 6.9 yards per carry?

Nick Foles hasn't been terrible this year, though ESPN Stats & Info highlighted his miscues on deep throws.

As much of a problem as DeSean Jackson might have been in the locker room, his importance in Chip Kelly's offense can't be overstated. With him in Washington, Foles is still trying to find the rhythm he had in 2013. 

The Eagles have been very good at home with 105 points scored in three games. Again, though, how do you judge wins over Jacksonville, Washington and St. Louis? 

Since 2011, the Giants and Eagles have played six times. They are 3-3 in those games. Last year they split the season series, with each winning on the road. 

There's so much talent on the Eagles' offense that there will come a game when it all clicks into place. It may not be this week, but at least they will right the ship with a good-enough performance. 

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