NFL Week 6 Picks: Final Overview of Consensus Picks

NFL consensus picks on a week-to-week basis offer bettors a nice cushion to fall back on and some wiggle room to make mistakes on other matchups. 

The return on consensus picks is obviously never as great as properly nailing an underdog call, but bettors confident enough in the consensus can throw down enough cash to cover any potential losses on said underdog decisions.

Be wary, though, as the teams involved in consensus matchups change each week. This week it is inadvisable to consider Seattle a consensus. The Seahawks are at home, but Dallas is too strong this year to write them off so easily.

Below is a look at the full Week 6 slate and a few surefire consensus picks.

NFL Week 6 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Jacksonville at Tennessee	TEN - 6	TEN	Tennessee is slowly incorporating all of its talented wideouts, meaning Jacksonville won't keep up.
Baltimore at Tampa Bay	BAL - 3.5	TB	At home, Tampa Bay has a developing pass game that will give Baltimore some issues.
Denver at NY Jets	DEN -10	DEN	See analysis below.
Detroit at Minnesota	DET -3	DET	Detroit stops the run well and should have few issues scoring on the Minnesota defense.
New England at Buffalo	NE -3	NE	Tom Brady and Co. are back to effective two-tight end sets and quality play in general.
Carolina at Cincinnati	CIN -7	CAR	Carolina remains one of the better teams in the league, whereas Cincinnati is coming off a crushing loss.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland	CLE -1	PIT	These two put together a classic a few weeks back, but Ben Roethlisberger can scrape out another win on his own.
Green Bay at Miami	GB - 3.5	GB	Aaron Rodgers will have few issues moving the ball down the field as long as his offensive line holds up.
San Diego at Oakland	SD -7.5	SD	See analysis below.
Chicago at Atlanta	ATL -3	ATL	Atlanta gets a major home advantage and should be able to torch a hobbled Chicago secondary.
Dallas at Seattle	SEA -9	DAL	Dallas is one of the best rushing teams in the league and should be able to counter Seattle in that manner to keep things close.
Washington at Arizona	ARI -4	ARI	Arizona's defense will force more than a few mistakes from Kirk Cousins.
NY Giants at Philadelphia	PHI -3	NYG	New York has a prolific offense at the moment and a pass rush that eats most offensive lines alive.
San Francisco at St. Louis (Mon., Oct. 9)	SF -3.5	SF	Austin Davis has played great, but all San Francisco has to do is ride an elite ground game to a telling victory.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 6 p.m. ET, Oct. 11.

Week 6 Top Consensus Picks

Denver Broncos (-10) at New York Jets

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

At first pass, bettors may take issue with Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos away from home and against a usually stout New York Jets defense led by Rex Ryan. That comes along with the fact that MetLife Stadium happens to be the site of Denver's epic Super Bowl letdown.

Rest easy—the Jets are putrid against the pass this season, having allowed the second-most touchdowns passes this year (12). Ryan himself understands the issues that come with encountering Manning, as illustrated by NFL on ESPN:

Manning has been his usual self this year with 12 touchdowns to three interceptions. He was strong in a recent loss in Seattle while completing 63.3 percent of his passes and more recently torching a usually strong Arizona defense for four touchdowns.

New York will clearly attempt to keep things on the ground with its sixth-ranked rushing attack that averages 139.2 yards per game, but Chris Ivory and a stable of backs may find it difficult to be effective against a Denver defense that just so happens to rank No. 7 against the run, allowing just 88.3 yards per game.

That is where things get dicey for the Jets. There is a bit of a quarterback competition on going on at the moment between Geno Smith and Michael Vick, even if Ryan chooses not to admit it. The former was pulled for the latter in a 31-0 loss to San Diego last week, which is really all that needs to be said on the matter.

Against a one-win Jets team with turmoil at the most important position of all, expect Manning and the Broncos to jump comfortably ahead, effectively eliminating New York's biggest offensive strength.

Prediction: Broncos 34, Jets 10

San Diego Chargers (-7.5) at Oakland Raiders

This one is sure to get out of hand. 

Oakland ranks No. 5 overall against the pass this year, but that likely has more to do with the fact that opposing teams are too busy chalking up major yardage on the ground against a unit that ranks second-to-last, allowing 158.3 rushing yards on average.

That, and the fact that the Jets, Houston, New England and Miami are not exactly passing teams, except for the Patriots, a team that started the year in a major slump.

Philip Rivers, who might just be the hottest player in the league so far this season, will have few issues moving the ball against the Oakland secondary—as usual. Look at some data compiled by STATS:

Should Rivers want to lean on the ground game for help, though, many will be quick to point out that the Chargers backfield has been decimated by injuries. Just do not tell that to the upstart Branden Oliver, who rushed for 114 yards and a touchdown against that Jets defense that still ranks in the top 10 after he did his damage.

For Oakland, this is a matter of somehow finding a way to keep up. But the team has run the football just 72 times this year, with Darren McFadden seeing 45 totes—which has resulted in 151 yards and a score on a 3.4 per-carry average.

It sounds as if rookie signal-caller Derek Carr will be back under center, too. That is a scary proposition against a San Diego defense that touts the league's second-best pass defense and held Seattle to just 21 points in Week 2.

Any way this one is viewed, San Diego is walking away with a win. 

Prediction: Chargers 35, Raiders 17

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).