10 College Basketball Players Who Should Expect Statistical Regressions in 2014
It's fair to assume that as college basketball players progress through their careers, their statistics will improve or at least hold steady. But that's not always the case, as a variety of circumstances can impact a player's numbers.
A year after being a team's No. 1 scoring option, a player might find himself taking fewer shots, thanks to an influx of support. Joining a new team or being on a team that moves into a new, more difficult conference can also impact a player's stats.
We have identified 10 players who put up solid numbers in 2013-14 but should expect to see their production decrease this season. Don't agree? Let us know why in the comments section.
Ian Chiles, Tennessee
1 of 10
Position: Guard
Year: Senior
2013-14 stats (per game): 15.8 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 41.9% FG, 31.4% 3-point FG, 67/.7% FT
Ian Chiles won 26 games in three seasons at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis, a low-major school from the Summit League, and he was the team's top scorer a year ago. Once he got his degree, he decided to move closer to his Louisville home, and Tennessee just happened to need a veteran guard.
That position is more or less his, as the Volunteers are thin in the backcourt under new coach Donnie Tyndall. But the 6'1", 200-pound Chiles won't be leading the team in scoring—not with the balanced approach Tyndall brings with him from his previous job.
At Southern Mississippi, Tyndall's team averaged 71 points per game but didn't have anyone contribute more than 11.3 points per contest. He did, however, have five guys with at least 9.6 points per game. Chiles figures to fit well into that system, where he'll get his points but not all the points.
Quinn Cook, Duke
2 of 10
Position: Duke
Year: Senior
2013-14 stats (per game): 11.6 points, 2.2 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 43.2% FG, 37.1% 3-point FG, 82.7% FT
Quinn Cook faces the strong possibility that his production peaked during the second of four years in college. His playing time will likely be cut significantly in his senior season thanks to the arrival of a true point guard in freshman Tyus Jones.
Jones, the No. 8 overall prospect in the 2014 class, according to 247Sports, figures to fill a major hole that plagued Duke last season. His point guard skills will get him plenty of minutes, and Cook stands to lose out the most, though his time went down from 2012-13 to last year as well.
Cook averaged 11.7 points in 33.6 minutes as a sophomore, starting 34 games. Last year, he made 22 starts and averaged 29.8 minutes per game. He may not start at all this year, instead taking on the role of the veteran reserve who spells Jones and others.
Bryce Dejean-Jones, Iowa State
3 of 10
Position: Guard
Year: Senior
2013-14 stats (per game): 13.6 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 42.7% FG, 32.3% 3-point FG, 64.3% FT
Bryce Dejean-Jones led UNLV in scoring and assists last season, but after graduating, he joined several other players who had left the program via transfer, graduation or early entry into the NBA draft. He found himself in a great situation by joining Iowa State's roster of Division I castoffs, but there's so much talent on the Cyclones roster that his minutes might not make it possible for him to reach double figures.
Iowa State graduated its top two scorers, but it brings back Georges Niang and Dustin Hogue. And when Marquette transfer Jameel McKay becomes eligible in December, another person will be in the mix for production and will cut into what Dejean-Jones is able to contribute.
The 6'6", 210-pound Dejean-Jones may end up being more of a role player than a go-to scorer, which will make his numbers drop significantly.
.png?w=256 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
Yogi Ferrell, Indiana
4 of 10
Position: Guard
Year: Junior
2013-14 stats (per game): 17.3 points, 3.0 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 41.3% FG, 40.0% 3-point FG, 82.4% FT
Indiana will be one of the youngest teams in the country this season, with only four juniors and no seniors working alongside 11 underclassmen. Leading scorer Yogi Ferrell will take on an even larger leadership role this season while also taking a back seat when it comes to scoring.
In 2013-14, Ferrell was the Hoosiers' main offensive weapon, but nearly 54 percent of his shots came from three-point range. He hit them at a good clip, but Indiana lacked efficiency on offense and finished a disappointing 17-15.
Indiana's strong freshman class, led by James Blackmon Jr.—a 5-star guard, per 247Sports—is supposed to help balance out the offense. This was seen during the Hoosiers' August exhibition trip to Canada. In five up-tempo games, Ferrell averaged 15.4 points but was third on the team, behind Blackmon and forward Troy Williams, according to Jessica Hunt of Fansided.
Sterling Gibbs, Seton Hall
5 of 10
Position: Guard
Year: Junior
2013-14 stats (per game): 13.2 points, 2.9 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 41.0% FG, 34.4% 3-point FG, 72.4% FT
Seton Hall lost three starters from last year's 17-17 team, which didn't make a postseason tournament but did have a big win at the end when it knocked off Villanova in the Big East tourney. The Pirates have a lot of production to replace, with leading scorer Fuquan Edwin and two other double-digit scorers gone.
Top returning scorer Sterling Gibbs isn't likely to make up much of that lost production. In fact, Gibbs stands to see his scoring decrease with the arrival of highly touted guard Isaiah Whitehead.
Whitehead—a 5-star guard, per 247Sports—averaged 23 points, eight rebounds and five assists in high school last year, and he figures to try to put up similar numbers with the Pirates. Scott Henry of Bleacher Report has predicted him to lead the Big East in scoring as a freshman, which likely means the 6'2", 185-pound Gibbs will spend more time passing to Whitehead for scoring opportunities than taking his own shots.
Andrew Harrison, Kentucky
6 of 10
Position: Guard
Year: Sophomore
2013-14 stats (per game): 10.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 36.7% FG, 35.1% 3-point FG, 76.4% FT
Kentucky coach John Calipari intends to use a platoon of two five-man units during the upcoming season, subbing one group for the other, almost like shift changes in hockey. That means the starters back for the Wildcats figure to see their minutes decrease, none more so than Andrew Harrison.
The 6'6", 210-pound Harrison averaged 31.7 minutes per game last season despite his poor field-goal shooting. With freshman point guard Tyler Ulis showing how flashy he can be during summer workouts and Kentucky's trip to the Bahamas, Harrison stands to lose out to the 5'9" Ulis.
Harrison has acknowledged what he faces this season, telling Kyle Tucker of The Louisville Courier-Journal, "That could really mess up a team."
Who knows how long the platoon system will last? But as long as it does, Harrison figures to be one of the players most likely to feel its effects.
Jonathan Holmes, Texas
7 of 10
Position: Forward
Year: Senior
2013-14 stats (per game): 12.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, 50.5% FG, 33.3% 3-point FG, 74.4% FT
The Texas frontcourt was already formidable last season, but it got even more imposing when the Longhorns signed Myles Turner—a 5-star center, per 247Sports—in April. The frontcourt is now crowded, however, and with Turner in the mix, someone has to move.
That's most likely going to be Jonathan Holmes, who played the 4 last season. The 6'8", 240-pound Holmes has the ability to handle the 3, assuming he can improve on his shooting, but that means he will get fewer touches in the paint and likely won't average as many rebounds or shoot as well as he did in 2013-14.
Holmes could score more, though, which would make him one of the few people on this list who might see that statistic improve while others decrease.
Antoine Mason, Auburn
8 of 10
Position: Guard
Year: Senior
2013-14 stats (per game): 25.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 44.0% FG, 28.6% 3-pt FG, 72.8% FT
Antoine Mason is the top returning scorer in the nation after finishing second in that category a year ago behind Creighton's Doug McDermott. But that production came at Niagara, a Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference school that went 7-26. Mason was responsible for 31 percent of field-goal attempts and 34 percent of the Purple Eagles' points.
Now, the 6'1", 216-pound Mason will be part of a more balanced offense at Auburn, where he transferred after graduating in the spring. One of many newcomers to the Tigers program, along with coach Bruce Pearl, Mason isn't likely to get nearly as many shots. Second-leading scorer KT Harrell is back, and fellow grad transfer K.C. Ross-Miller from New Mexico State plays a similar position as Mason.
Auburn's acquisition of Mason was a huge get to help the program rebuild, but his value will come in more than just scoring. As a result, he isn't likely to be the Tigers' top scorer this season.
Marcus Paige, North Carolina
9 of 10
Position: Guard
Year: Junior
2013-14 stats (per game): 17.5 points, 3.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.5 steals, 44.0% FG, 38.9% 3-point FG, 87.7% FT
Marcus Paige's breakout 2013-14 season was as much a product of necessity as it was a product of his development, as North Carolina lost scorers P.J. Hairston and Leslie McDonald to NCAA suspensions. McDonald eventually returned, but Paige had already asserted himself as basically the first, second and third scoring options for the Tar Heels, and that continued all season.
Paige led Carolina in scoring and assists, and he attempted and made more three-pointers than the rest of the team combined. But the 6'1", 175-pound Paige is going to have a lot more help this season thanks to a strong recruiting class, not to mention an improved frontcourt, so he might only have to be No. 1 on that list.
The Heels bring in three freshmen—forwards Justin Jackson and Theo Pinson and point guard Joel Berry—who are all expected to contribute right away. Jackson will give Carolina the wing scorer it lacked last year, while Berry can allow Paige to move over to the 2 and not have to be the primary ball-handler and the main shooter.
Paige will still be the most important piece of UNC's lineup, which is why he's getting named to numerous preseason All-American teams, but if he makes similar postseason lists, he's apt to be the only one whose production went down from a year ago.
QJ Peterson, VMI
10 of 10
Position: Guard
Year: Sophomore
2013-14 stats (per game): 19.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 40.4% FG, 32.0% 3-point FG, 75.8% FT
For those who didn't follow college basketball super closely last season, Virginia Military Institute led Division I in scoring at 88.3 points per game. The Keydets went 22-13, losing to Yale in the semifinals of the CollegeInsider.com tournament.
QJ Peterson was one of three dazzling scorers on VMI, but forward D.J. Covington and point guard Rodney Glasgow have graduated. That leaves Peterson as the lone holdover from a trio that scored 58 points per game as the Keydets move from the Big South into the tougher Southern Conference.
The 6'0", 190-pound Peterson wasn't afraid to take shots last year, attempting a team-high 549 in 35 games. He'll probably take even more this season without the help around him, but he's apt to struggle to have as many good looks without a veteran point guard to feed him and with no inside presence (Covington averaged 9.3 rebounds) to kick it out to him.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.png?w=480 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
