1 Key Stat Each Undefeated Team Should Know to Avoid Upset This Week
Did you know that Alabama was ranked No. 106 in turnover margin coming into last Saturday’s game with Ole Miss?
It’s a statistic that makes the 23-17 upset loss more understandable, especially since the game ended with Alabama quarterback Blake Sims throwing an interception on the Ole Miss 32-yard line with two minutes remaining.
The Tide’s tale of woe reminds us that each of the 10 programs which have survived to Week 7 without a loss have a weakness, something that’s just waiting to be exposed.
It’s there, no matter how invincible a team may look on the surface.
Here’s a look at a simple number for each perfect program, a telling statistic that could become the foreshadowing we should have been looking for in the first place.
Florida State
1 of 10
Week 7 Opponent: at Syracuse
Line: Florida State -24
Key Stat: Better than minus-three in turnover margin
The Seminoles haven’t lost a football game since Nov. 24, 2012, when 10-1 Florida State—ranked No. 10 in the nation—fell 37-26 to No. 6 Florida.
The loss to the Gators was also the last time Florida State posted a single-game turnover margin of worse than minus-two.
The Seminoles turned the ball over five times in the loss (two fumbles and three interceptions) and forced only one turnover (a fumble), for a minus-four margin.
Florida State was minus-one in turnover margin in the following game—a 21-15 win over unranked Georgia Tech in the ACC championship—but managed to post a zero or better margin in the next 17 games, all wins.
The run included the entire 2013 BCS title season when the Seminoles went plus-17 in turnover margin, finishing tied for No. 2 in the FBS.
The streak ended this year with a minus-one performance in the narrow 23-17 win over Clemson in Week 3 and then a minus-two day in the 56-41 win at NC State in Week 4.
Florida State is minus-two in turnover margin in 2014, ranked No. 95 in the FBS and No. 11 in the ACC. If the Seminoles continue to struggle in giveaways versus takeaways—posting a turnover margin of minus-three or worse—they’ll drop a game they shouldn’t.
Syracuse ranks No. 24 in turnover margin, at plus-four with nine takeaways versus only five giveaways.
Georgia Tech
2 of 10
Week 7 Opponent: Duke
Line: Georgia Tech -3
Key Stat: Allowing fewer than 245 passing yards
Georgia Tech’s passing defense has improved from a No. 85 finish in the FBS last season to a No. 38 rank five games into 2014.
Though the net effect is only 30 fewer passing yards allowed per game, it’s a key benchmark for the Yellow Jacket defense.
Georgia Tech hasn’t lost a game when it gives up fewer than 245 passing yards since last October when it allowed 244 through the air in a 38-20 loss to BYU.
In the final three losses of last season—including the 25-17 defeat to Ole Miss in the Music City Bowl—the Yellow Jackets gave up an average of 313 passing yards.
This year, Georgia Tech has only gone over the 245 mark once, coughing up 297 yards through the air in its Week 4 upset win at Virginia Tech. But that was more of a magical win, requiring 17 fourth-quarter points, including a 41-yard pick-six and a 24-yard field goal as time expired.
The good news for the Yellow Jackets is that Duke is averaging 220 passing yards per game, No. 81 in the nation.
Baylor
3 of 10
Week 7 Opponent: TCU
Line: Baylor -8
Key Stat: Allowing fewer than 460 yards offense
The key to Baylor winning the Big 12 last season and hitting 11 wins for the first time in school history wasn’t gaining more and more yards, it was allowing fewer.
Before 2013, the Bears’ best finish in total defense in the Art Briles era was in 2008 when they were ranked No. 86 among the 120 FBS teams. In 2012, the season prior to the 11-win year, Baylor ranked No. 123, or second-to-last in the nation, giving up over 500 yards per game.
This makes the Bears’ meteoric rise to No. 27 in total defense last season—allowing only 360 yards per game—seem almost miraculous.
Despite the huge improvement overall, there were still hiccups, bumps in the road that cost the once-struggling program a shot at a national championship.
Baylor’s defense allowed more than 460 yards of total offense only twice last season: 594 in the 49-17 blowout loss at No. 11 Oklahoma State and 556 to No. 15 UCF in the 52-42 BCS Fiesta Bowl loss.
The Bears’ fifth-worst performance last season came against TCU, giving up 410 yards in a narrow 41-38 win in Fort Worth.
To beat No. 9 TCU this weekend, Baylor will have to hold a Horned Frog offense which is averaging 516 yards a game to fewer than 460.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
TCU
4 of 10
Week 7 Opponent: at Baylor
Line: TCU +8
Key Stat: Gaining 200-plus yards of rushing
Before knocking off No. 4 Oklahoma last week, the last time TCU beat a ranked team was Nov. 22, 2012, when it traveled to Austin and shocked No. 18 Texas 20-13.
It was also one of only seven times the Horned Frogs have rushed for more than 200 yards in a game since they joined the Big 12.
TCU is 6-1 in 200-plus rushing yard games since 2012, the only loss coming early in 2013 at Texas Tech when the Horned Frogs rushed for 207 but also gave up 10 points in the final four minutes to lose 20-10.
Take a look at TCU’s final rank in rushing yards versus its final record: 2010, No. 10 in rushing, 13-0 final record. 2011, No. 19 in rushing, 11-2 final record. 2012, No. 66 in rushing, 7-6 record. 2013, No. 111 in rushing, 4-8 record.
The Horned Frogs are ranked No. 41 in rushing yards through four games this season, averaging 196 yards per game, 78 yards more than what they averaged in 2013.
TCU rushed for 151 yards in last week’s 37-33 upset win over Oklahoma, and this Saturday it will need to try and hit 200 against a Baylor defense that is giving up only 102 ground yards per game in 2014.
Marshall
5 of 10
Week 7 Opponent: Middle Tennessee
Line: Marshall +24.5
Key Stat: Keeping opponents below 50 percent on third down
One of the less-celebrated reasons that Marshall managed double-digit wins last season (the first time since 2002) is defense. Yes, say what you will about Rakeem Cato and the No. 4 scoring offense in the FBS, but this is a program that’s improved its win-loss total with better play on the other side of the ball.
Marshall was upset three times last season: as seven-point favorites at Ohio (a 34-31 loss), as eight-point favorites at Middle Tennessee (a 51-49 loss) and as six-point favorites in the C-USA title game at Rice (a 41-21 loss).
The three defeats were also the only times in 2013 that the Thundering Herd defense allowed an opponent a third-down conversion rate of 50 percent or better.
Ohio was 57.89 percent on third down, Middle Tennessee was 50 percent and Rice was 57.14 percent.
To compare, Marshall held Virginia Tech to 12.5 percent on third down in a narrow 29-21 triple-overtime defeat in Blacksburg, and it held Maryland to 14.29 percent in the 31-20 Military Bowl win.
The Thundering Herd finished 2012 at 5-7, ranked No. 99 in opponent third-down conversions. In 2013, the final record jumped to 10-4, and the rank in third downs went to No. 17.
This season, Marshall is at No. 6 through five games, holding opposing offenses to a 26.58 percent rate on third down. Only Mississippi State, USC, Tennessee, Virginia Tech and Louisville are better.
This Saturday, the Herd will be squaring off with a Middle Tennessee offense that ranks a scary No. 14 in the FBS on third down—successful 48.84 percent of the time.
Notre Dame
6 of 10
Week 7 Opponent: North Carolina
Line: Notre Dame -17
Key Stat: 30-plus rushing attempts
Notre Dame has only lost five total games since 2012, all in the 2013 calendar year. The losing started with the 42-14 beatdown vs. Alabama in the BCS title game and then extended with losses at Michigan, vs. Oklahoma, at Pitt and at Stanford last season.
The common thread that ties the five defeats together is rushing attempts: The Irish ran the ball fewer than 30 times on each occasion.
Notre Dame ran the ball 19 times against Alabama and Michigan, 29 times against Oklahoma and then 24 times each against both Stanford and Pitt.
In all 26 wins since 2012, the Irish have run the ball 30-plus times.
The regression signals a drop in rushing production: Notre Dame ranked No. 38 in the FBS is rushing yards in 2012 (averaging 189 yards per game), dropped to No. 81 last season (151 yards per game) and is at No. 80 through five games this year (153 yards per game).
Upsetting the Irish will mean shutting down their running game, an attack which doesn’t need to be all-world but does need to be called on at least 30 times.
The good news in Week 7 is the Tar Heels’ run defense is ranked No. 93 in the FBS, coughing up 186 yards per game this season and allowing each of its first five opponents 35 or more attempts.
Arizona
7 of 10
Week 7 Opponent: USC
Line: Arizona +3
Key Stat: Allowing fewer than 300 yards passing
Even though No. 10 Arizona (5-0) is technically a three-point underdog this Saturday night, a loss to unranked USC (3-2) in Tucson would be considered an upset.
What makes the Wildcats look vulnerable is a pass defense that ranks No. 119 in the FBS, giving up an average of 297 yards per game through the air this season.
Arizona has given up 300-plus yards passing in each of its last three wins, games it won over Nevada, Cal and Oregon by a total of 19 points.
The last time the Wildcats suffered an upset loss was last season, as 11-point favorites against Washington State, a game they dropped 24-17. It’s no surprise that this was also the game where Arizona’s No. 70-ranked pass defense gave up the most yards of the season: 319.
If the Wildcats can find a way to shore up their secondary and hold each of their next seven opponents to under the 300-yard passing mark, they will have a chance to hit double-digit wins for the first time since going 12-1 in 1998.
Up first is USC, a team which is ranked No. 33 in the FBS in passing yards, averaging 282 yards per game.
Auburn
8 of 10
Week 7 Opponent: at Mississippi State
Line: Auburn -3
Key Stat: Gaining 4.5-plus rushing yards per carry
If Auburn falls this season, it will be to a team with a stifling run defense.
Since Gus Malzahn took over in 2013, the Tigers have averaged fewer than 4.5 rushing yards per attempt on only four occasions—three times last season and once this year.
Last season's subpar performances came in the narrow 24-20 win vs. Mississippi State (3.3 yards per carry), the 35-21 loss at LSU (4.1 yards per carry) and in the BCS title loss to Florida State (4.4 yards per carry).
This year it’s only happened once, in the Week 4 visit to K-State when the Tigers held on to win 20-14, despite managing only 2.8 yards per carry.
Auburn is 2-2 since 2013 when earning fewer than 4.5 yards per carry and 15-0 when going over the 4.5 mark.
This paints a scary picture for this Saturday’s showdown with Mississippi State, a team that not only held the Tigers to the least total rushing yards in a game since Malzahn took over (120) last season, but ranks No. 11 against the run this year.
The Bulldogs have given up an average of 98 rushing yards per game, holding each of their first four opponents to under 2.63 yards per carry.
On the upside for Auburn is Mississippi State’s performance against Texas A&M last week, a game it won 48-31 but not without giving up 161 yards rushing to the Aggies, or 5.2 yards per carry.
Mississippi State
9 of 10
Week 7 Opponent: Auburn
Line: Mississippi State +3
Key Stat: 1.5 interceptions per game
Despite a 5-0 record, top 25 rankings in scoring offense and scoring defense and back-to-back wins over No. 8 LSU and No. 6 Texas A&M, Mississippi State is vulnerable.
The Bulldogs rank No. 126 among the 128 FBS teams in pass defense, giving up an average of 328 yards per game through the air. Only Bowling Green at 345 and Cal at 428 are worse.
Included in Mississippi State’s resume is coughing up 435 passing yards to UAB in Week 2, 314 to a young LSU offense in Week 4 and then 365 to Texas A&M last Saturday.
How are the Bulldogs still undefeated? Well, they’ve also scored nine interceptions this season, tying them for the third most in the FBS.
The biggest day came against the Aggies, when Mississippi State gave up four passing touchdowns but nabbed three interceptions, winning 48-31.
If Mississippi State can’t dramatically improve its secondary, it will have to continue to force turnovers to the tune of either maintaining or improving its average of 1.5 interceptions per game.
This may not prove costly against run-dominated Auburn this weekend, but things will get dicey against Kentucky, Alabama and Ole Miss.
Ole Miss
10 of 10
Week 7 Opponent: at Texas A&M
Line: Ole Miss +2
Key Stat: Gaining 150-plus yards rushing
Ole Miss rushed for fewer than 150 yards in six games last season—five of them resulted in losses.
The only win came when the Rebels posted 103 yards rushing against Arkansas and still won 34-24. Of course, the season-high 428 yards of passing didn’t hurt.
This year, Ole Miss has slipped under the 150-yard mark twice, registering 71 yards in the 35-13 opening win against Boise State and hitting 72 yards in last week’s epic win over Alabama.
In both cases, the Rebels also came out ahead in the turnover margin battle, scoring a critical plus-one mark in each win.
Though Ole Miss is a pass-dominant team—ranked No. 22 in passing yards versus No. 87 in rushing—success on the ground is likely to equal wins.
That means pounding on Texas A&M this weekend, a program that ranks No. 87 against the run and is giving up an average of 179 rushing yards per game.
Stats courtesy of CFBStats.com. Lines courtesy of Odds Shark.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
