NFL Week 6 Picks
It's Week 6, and the NFL playoff picture couldn't be murkier. Every division is up for grabs, making this weekend of particular interest. Eight divisional games will set the stage for what looks to be one of the most competitive seasons in recent memory.
Though there's plenty of time left for teams to make up ground, teams like the Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings and Miami Dolphins could find themselves in a deep hole if they fall Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles have a great chance to separate themselves. A win over the New York Giants and a Dallas Cowboys loss to the Seattle Seahawks would put them in the NFC East driver's seat.
With many more exciting games on the slate, there's no reason to leave your couch Sunday. Let's dive in and make some picks.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
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In a battle for first place in the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills will host the New England Patriots on Sunday. Though the Patriots have won 20 of the last 21 meetings between the two teams—let that sink in for a moment—this one feels different.
And it is.
The Bills boast a team with significantly more skill than most people will acknowledge and need only average quarterback play to stay in football games. The defense ranks fifth in points per game, second in rushing yards per game and second on third downs.
That being said, it looks like that Tom Brady guy is still pretty good.
The Patriots are riding high after dismantling the Bengals on Sunday Night Football, jumping off to a quick lead and never looking back. On top of that, this is their best defense in years. Chandler Jones and Vince Wilfork will cause trouble for Buffalo's offensive line, and you can bet that Darrelle Revis will be shadowing Sammy Watkins.
This game will be won in the trenches. If the Bills can get to Brady—something they've been unable to do for seemingly a decade—they will win this football game. After watching Marcell Dareus's performance without Kyle Williams alongside him in Detroit, I have no doubt that they will.
Prediction: Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
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Over/Under on how many seconds I'll spend watching this game: one second.
I'll take the under. This game is a matchup of two of the NFL's worst teams, and it could be instrumental in deciding draft order.
It's hard to say what the score will be in this game, as both teams struggle offensively and defensively. Tennessee is 27th in the scoring defense and 29th in scoring offense, while Jacksonville ranks 32nd and 31st respectively.
Jake Locker is questionable for this game, and if he doesn't get the nod, it'll be Charlie Whitehurst. Hopefully, the Titans will feed the ball to Bishop Sankey, the rookie running back with significantly more upside than veteran plodder Shonn Greene.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville has a little bit of promise on offense. Blake Bortles has thrown a gruesome six interceptions, but has shown flashes, sporting a 67.0 completion percentage. Young receivers like Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, and Marqise Lee offer upside, while running back Storm Johnson may seize the starting job sooner rather than later.
The Jags have hung close in a few of their games, putting a scare in both the Eagles and Steelers. This one could go either way, but my gut says this is the week that they close one out.
Prediction: Jaguars
Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the joke of the NFL for the first quarter of the season, but they are a different team with Mike Glennon under center. The fact that Lovie Smith hasn't named him the starter going forward is mind-boggling, but that's a topic for another day.
The Baltimore Ravens come to town after being shown up by the Colts. Indy's defense brought the Ravens offense to a standstill, but that should not be a problem this weekend.
In this writer's opinion, Baltimore is one of the few elite teams in the AFC. The defense has gotten younger and more talented on the fly, and it shows. Ozzie Newsome has done a superb job retooling this unit, which ranks third in the NFL, allowing a paltry 16.0 points per game.
Look for Haloti Ngata to continue to eat up offensive linemen and for C.J. Mosley to make plays in the open field against a Bucs offense that struggles to establish the run.
Meanwhile, Joe Flacco will be airing it out against a defense that is miserable against the pass. This one is all Baltimore.
Prediction: Ravens
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Denver Broncos at New York Jets
4 of 14
Poor Geno Smith.
I don't believe that Geno Smith is the answer at quarterback in New York, but there aren't many guys who could succeed with his supporting cast. Jeremy Kerley as your second receiver? Good luck.
The Denver Broncos are fresh off of a beatdown of the Arizona Cardinals, moving the ball 479 yards through the air. Imagine what they will do to a secondary that is vastly inferior to Arizona's.
Denver won't be able to run the ball against the Jets, but it's OK. That won't be an issue until playoff time. On the other side of the ball, Denver's defense ranks ninth against the pass and third against the run.
What are the Jets to do?
Prediction: Broncos
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
5 of 14
In one of the more intriguing games of the weekend, the Detroit Lions make the trek to Minnesota. Teddy Bridgewater returns as the savior for a team that was mercilessly beaten on Thursday Night Football last week by Green Bay.
The Lions, fresh off their signing of Matt Prater, shouldn't have any kicking issues this weekend. Still, they could be without Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush, a scenario that did not bode well for Matthew Stafford in Week 5. They will rely heavily on Golden Tate against a Minnesota secondary that boasts some talented players.
On the defensive side of the ball, Detroit has been dominant. The defensive line clamps down on the running game, allowing the team's skilled coverage linebackers to drop back and stifle the pass. Teddy Bridgewater will have to be quick in his drops and get rid of the ball for Minnesota to have a chance.
I'm a believer in Teddy, but I firmly believe that this Detroit team is for real.
Prediction: Lions
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals
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This matchup should tell us a lot about two teams that have proven difficult to read. The Panthers jumped off to a 2-0 start before struggling their way to 3-2. Meanwhile, the Bengals looked elite at 3-0 before getting embarrassed by the Patriots.
It's time for these teams to prove it.
The Bengals could be at a severe disadvantage this weekend, as it looks like A.J. Green and Marvin Jones will not play. Add that to Tyler Eifert's dislocated elbow, and you have limited passing weapons. Look for Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill to run the ball early and often against a Panthers defense that allows a league-worst 5.4 yards per carry.
Carolina struggles running the ball, too, though it's mostly due to the barrage of injuries they've incurred at running back. Cam Newton may have to win this game with his arm, and it appears he has better weapons than anticipated. Kelvin Benjamin has been a revelation at wide receiver, and veteran tight end Greg Olsen has had a breakthrough year thus far.
This game is going to be very close, but I have a hard time going against the Bengals at home with a chance to run all over the Panthers.
Prediction: Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
7 of 14
This week, the Steelers head to Cleveland to take on a Browns squad that gave them a run for their money in Week 1, when Pittsburgh triumphed 30-27. Since then, Brian Hoyer and company have done nothing besides hang tough, beating New Orleans and Tennessee, while dropping a close one to Baltimore.
The Steelers, on the other hand, have played a game of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. They looked like a playoff team against Carolina, but got pummeled by Baltimore. We don't know what to expect in Week 6.
With Ben Tate healthy and running well, both teams should be able to move the ball well. Le'Veon Bell will set the tone for Pittsburgh's aerial attack, which should have no problems with Cleveland's 30th-ranked pass defense in terms of yards per attempt.
Hoyer should feel comfortable in the underdog role as always, but I think the Steelers take an early lead and hold on. This division is going to be a dogfight.
Prediction: Steelers
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins
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Though the Packers have turned in back-to-back strong performances against the Bears and Vikings, they've shown that they are beatable if pass-rushers can get after Aaron Rodgers. With the continuously underrated Cameron Wake and rising star Olivier Vernon, the Miami Dolphins may have just the right recipe to pull off an upset.
Miami and Green Bay will match strength for strength when the Packers take to the air; the Dolphins rank third in the league against the pass and the Packers rank 12th in yards per attempt. That ranking would be higher if not for understandably meager outputs on the road in Detroit and Seattle.
If the Dolphins are to pull off an upset, it should be on the wings of a strong rushing attack. Knowshon Moreno looks like he'll play this weekend, and Lamar Miller performed admirably in his absence. Both backs should have room to run, as the Packers have allowed a league-high 815 rushing yards through five weeks.
Ultimately, quarterbacks can iron out the kinks on flawed football teams, and Rodgers has been doing that for years. Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill—as talented as he is—has proven to be anything but consistent in his young career. Coming off of a bye week and playing at home, ex-Packers coordinator Joe Philbin should have his team well-prepared and motivated to keep pace in the AFC East.
Prediction: Dolphins
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders
9 of 14
In this AFC West divisional matchup, the Chargers will look to assert their elite status by putting a beating on the Raiders. Oakland, coming off a Week 5 bye, was throttled in London by a Dolphins team that many had left for dead. I think we can all agree that San Diego presents even bigger issues.
Oakland boasts the NFL's 20th-ranked pass defense and 17th-ranked rushing defense. Neither of those are playoff-caliber units, but they aren't miserable, either. The problem for the Raiders, though, is that their offense is awful—they average 3.4 yards per carry and 5.7 yards per pass attempt. Even if their defense makes some stops, Derek Carr is going to have to put up over 20 points to beat Philip Rivers and company.
Look for the Chargers to carry out a balanced offensive attack. Rivers will spread the ball to his array of weapons, and Branden Oliver will serve as a dual threat as a runner and pass-catcher. Simply put, Oakland will need to put forth a dominant defensive effort at home to have a chance at the upset.
Given how San Diego has looked lately, I just don't see that happening.
Prediction: Chargers
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
10 of 14
In this week's "What have you done for me lately?" game, the Bears and Falcons will look to right the ship and get back to .500. Both teams boast prolific offenses that, when clicking, can make up for their significant deficiencies on defense.
Which version of Jay Cutler will we see this Sunday? For me, the answer to that question dictates exactly who will win. If Cutler can cut down on turnovers and the Bears make an actual attempt to get Matt Forte going, they should have no issues outgunning the Falcons and their hapless defense.
Meanwhile, Chicago's defense isn't as bad as you think. It is vulnerable through the air, but ranks 16th in the NFL against the run and third in takeaways. That's bad news for an Atlanta squad that has the league's second-most giveaways and refuses to commit to the run. Unless the Falcons finally realize they should give the ball to Antone Smith—sporting a staggering 16.3 yards per touch—I think this matchup favors the Bears.
Prediction: Bears
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks
11 of 14
I know that I'm not alone in anticipating this matchup as the game of the week. The Dallas Cowboys are riding high at 4-1 and will look to take down the defending Super Bowl Champions in Seattle.
This will be a clash of the league's best run defense—Seattle allows a disgustingly low 2.6 yards per carry– against the best offensive line and most productive running back in football, DeMarco Murray. The Cowboys have found a successful formula, but will undoubtedly rely more on Tony Romo this week. If Dez Bryant can continue to be a clutch performer, we'll have ourselves a close one.
On the other side of the coin, Dallas was supposed to have the worst defense of all time. Rod Marinelli and his unit have not been great by any stretch of the imagination but have shown to be respectable. Russell Wilson and Seattle's balanced attack will be their most difficult task yet.
If Marshawn Lynch can continue to be effective on the ground and Wilson plays like his efficient self, the Cowboys may not be able to keep up. Count me among those who believe the Seattle offense is just as good as its D.
Prediction: Seahawks
Washington at Arizona Cardinals
12 of 14
So, here's the deal. I think the Arizona Cardinals are a great football team when Carson Palmer is at the helm. Drew Stanton has proven to be acceptable as a fill-in when the defense holds its own, but the loss of Calais Campbell to injury is a devastating blow to a unit that has taken hit after hit.
Meanwhile, everyone is down on Washington, and understandably so. It is porous defensively. However, we know that Washington can score points, and I think it'll do just that this weekend. Kirk Cousins has many weapons at his disposal, including DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jordan Reed, and Alfred Morris. The Cardinals should be worried.
Drew Stanton may very well perform admirably, but I don't think he's ready for a shootout. Jay Gruden and Co. know that they can win the game if it's not all on Kirk Cousins. Expect a heavy diet of Alfred Morris, and if Washington gets a quick lead, it's that team's ballgame to lose.
Prediction: Washington
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
13 of 14
It's time to admit that we were wrong; the NFC East ain't bad. The Giants travel to Philadelphia in the first major divisional tilt of the year and look to take a share of first place by week's end.
Eli Manning looks extremely comfortable in Ben McAdoo's West Coast offense. Eli has always been a good quarterback with a turnover problem, and these quick drops have made life much easier on him. Additionally, the Giants have established a running game, and though Rashad Jennings is out for Week 6, Andre Williams is a strong and patient runner between the tackles. Add in Odell Beckham to the equation, and this offense just got way more potent.
Philadelphia is off to a 4-1 start, but that's largely due to an unsustainable number of special teams and defensive touchdowns. Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy have not looked like world-beaters, and that's largely due to poor line play. The Giants, on the other hand, have gotten great play in the trenches with Jason Pierre-Paul returning to elite form.
New York has been aided by the play of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Prince Amukamara and a defense that leads the NFL with eight interceptions. Philly has proven very beatable on that side of the ball, allowing 26.4 points per game. I think this game presents a poor matchup for the Eagles.
Prediction: Giants
San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams
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Before I get into my pick, let's do a fun little QB comparison exercise. The two starting quarterbacks for this game are anonymously represented below:
| CMP % | YDS | TD:INT | |
| QB #1 | 67.8 | 1129 | 2 |
| QB #2 | 64.7 | 1113 | 1.75 |
Austin Davis is QB #1 and Colin Kaepernick is QB #2. Since taking over for Shaun Hill, Davis has performed above and beyond expectations for a Rams squad that seemed absolutely hopeless after Sam Bradford went down. On the other hand, Colin Kaepernick has struggled. I'm not trying to tell you that Davis is better, but understand that Kaepernick is still very much a developing quarterback.
This game will be won by defensive play, and through five weeks, not many teams are doing it better than the 49ers. They rank sixth against the run and first against the pass in terms of yards per attempt. St. Louis has been a very average team in both respects, sporting a better-than-expected aerial attack and a running game with zero explosiveness.
Despite the injuries and suspensions incurred by the San Francisco defense, we're still looking at an elite unit. It's improved week after week, and though the Rams are a feisty young squad, they will have issues against the perennial NFC West power.
Prediction: 49ers
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