NCAA Tournament Regulars in Danger of Missing the Big Dance in 2015
Marquette tops our list of NCAA tournament regulars most in danger of missing the Big Dance in 2015.
To be defined as a tournament regular, schools need to have either competed in at least 10 of the 15 tournaments since 2000 or competed in at least seven of the past 15 tournaments with at least four of those invites coming in the past five years.
By that definition, there are 32 tournament regulars in the country.
Many of them—Arizona, Duke, Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina and Wisconsin, to name a few—couldn't possibly be in less danger of missing the 2015 tournament.
Others like BYU, Missouri and Temple would need a minor miracle to continue their recent trend of making the tournament more often than not.
Teams on the following slides are listed in ascending order of perceived likelihood of missing the 2015 NCAA tournament.
Star ratings courtesy of Rivals.com.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 12
Connecticut Huskies
It might seem crazy to even (dis)honorably mention UConn on this list, but the Huskies haven't exactly been a model of consistency. Even ignoring the year that they were banned from the tournament, they've missed the Big Dance as often as they have won it over the past 15 years.
Kevin Ollie lost a lot more from last year's roster than most people want to believe. If Ryan Boatright is unable to make the transformation from sidekick to hero, there will at least be cause for concern in Storrs.
Memphis Tigers
Memphis has been to 10 of the last 12 tournaments, but the Tigers lost a ton of crucial senior guards from what was already a 10-loss team.
We believe they'll make it behind the strength of a deep and talented frontcourt, but we also believe there will be struggles in their very inexperienced backcourt.
Syracuse Orange
Syracuse fans act like it's slander to suggest that Jim Boeheim could lead a team to the NIT, but the Orange have actually missed three tournaments in the past 13 years.
They should be OK if DaJuan Coleman is healthy enough to play, but let's not go pretending that Trevor Cooney is Carmelo Anthony or even Gerry McNamara. This is a team losing three of the leading scorers from a roster that didn't exactly set the nets on fire with offense in the first place.
11. Xavier Musketeers
2 of 12
Tournaments Since 2000: 12
Tournaments Since 2010: 4
Notable Departures: Semaj Christon, Justin Martin, Isaiah Philmore
We typically aim for 10 teams in these slideshows, but we're making an exception because Xavier is substantially more likely to miss the tournament than the honorably aforementioned.
The Musketeers made it into last year's tournament by the skin of their teeth. Were we still operating in the days of 65 teams instead of 68, they would have had to settle for being one of the favorites to win the NIT.
That just-barely-good-enough roster suffered some serious blows this summer when Semaj Christon (17.0 PPG, 4.2 APG) jumped to the NBA and Justin Martin (11.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG) transferred to SMU.
Head coach Chris Mack has a very strong incoming class headlined by Trevon Bluiett and Edmond Sumner, but his list of noteworthy returning players is pretty much limited to Matt Stainbrook and Dee Davis.
If the Musketeers were still in the A-10, they'd be just fine. But in a Big East that should be more formidable than last season, it's not hard to picture this roster missing the cut.
10. Illinois Fighting Illini
3 of 12
Tournaments Since 2000: 11
Tournaments Since 2010: 2
Notable Departures: Jon Ekey, Joseph Bertrand
Of the 283 teams who missed the tournament this past season, the Illini aren't quite the favorites to get there in 2015. That honor belongs to either Georgetown, SMU or Utah. But Illinois definitely belongs in the top five.
Though the Illini graduated two of their four leading scorers from last season and lost another for the year to a torn ACL, they still have a deep and talented rotation headlined by Rayvonte Rice. Last year's top scorer will be joined in the backcourt by top 2013 recruits Kendrick Nunn and Malcolm Hill as well as Seton Hall transfer Aaron Cosby and Oregon State transfer Ahmad Starks.
In addition to those five guards, Illinois should have a formidable frontcourt made up of Nnanna Egwu, 4-star recruit Leron Black and sophomores Austin Colbert and Maverick Morgan.
Led by Rice and Egwu, Illinois had one of the best defenses in the nation last season. If Cosby, Nunn and Starks can provide enough three-point shooting to help improve the offense, the Illini should be able to continue their eight-year streak of oscillating between making and missing the tournament by going dancing this March.
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9. Cincinnati Bearcats
4 of 12
Tournaments Since 2000: 10
Tournaments Since 2010: 4
Notable Departures: Sean Kilpatrick, Justin Jackson, Titus Rubles, Jermaine Lawrence
These are the kind of seasons that can really make or break a coach's career.
Last year's team was the best one Mick Cronin has assembled in his 11 years as a head coach, but the three most important players graduated, and his top 2013 recruit transferred to Manhattan.
What's left behind is less than a shell of that 2013-14 team.
Players like Troy Caupain and Ge'Lawn Guyn essentially just had to stay out of the way of the guys who could actually score last year, but now they'll need to be integral pieces in the offense. Shaquille Thomas (6'7") is the only returning player taller than 6'5", meaning the Bearcats will need to rely heavily on incoming freshmen and JUCO transfers.
If it works and they make the tournament, Cronin starts getting mentioned in the conversation about great coaches of this generation. If it doesn't, we're left to wonder if he just got lucky with Sean Kilpatrick.
Put this team in the Big East circa 2010-13 and it would be lucky to even win five conference games. In the AAC, though, Cincinnati should at least have a reasonable chance of remaining a tournament regular.
8. Pittsburgh Panthers
5 of 12
Tournaments Since 2000: 12
Tournaments Since 2010: 4
Notable Departures: Lamar Patterson, Talib Zanna
The Panthers only lost two players from last year's 26-win team, but they were unquestionably the most important pieces on the roster.
Lamar Patterson and Talib Zanna were top two on the team in both points and rebounds. Zanna led the team in blocked shots. Patterson led the team in assists and was the only player to make more than 25 three-pointers on the season.
They aren't anywhere close to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in terms of talent, but asking Pittsburgh to dance without them is about as promising as expecting the Oklahoma City Thunder to make the playoffs without their dynamic duo.
A rotation anchored by Cameron Wright, James Robinson and a healthy Durand Johnson could be formidable, but average seems like a more reasonable expectation.
Whether the Panthers actually make the 2015 tournament will very likely depend on their trip to Hawaii.
Aside from the Maui Invitational, their best nonconference game is either at Indiana or at home against Florida Gulf Coast—neither of which figures to really boost their RPI. But after playing Chaminade in the Maui opener, they could potentially play games against San Diego State and Arizona that actually would help ye olde computer profile.
Considering Pittsburgh's best-case conference scenario is probably a sixth-place finish in ACC play, it'll need all the nonconference help it can get.
7. UNLV Rebels
6 of 12
Tournaments Since 2000: 7
Tournaments Since 2010: 4
Notable Departures: Khem Birch, Roscoe Smith, Bryce Dejean-Jones, Deville Smith, Kevin Olekaibe
UNLV missed the tournament last season and lost all five of the leading scorers from that team due to either transfer, graduation or an ill-advised early departure for the NBA draft.
So how are the Rebels not No. 1 on the list, you ask?
There are two big reasons.
First off, Dave Rice has one of the best recruiting classes in the country. Rashad Vaughn is a 5-star player who may lead the Mountain West Conference in scoring. Goodluck Okonoboh and Dwayne Morgan are 4-star big men who will help soften the blow of losing Khem Birch and Roscoe Smith.
UNLV is also gaining a crucial transfer in Cody Doolin, a graduate senior whose veteran leadership will help offset the inexperience of all the freshmen who will play significant minutes.
The second reason for UNLV optimism is the continued decline of the MWC. San Diego State lost a number of key players. New Mexico lost virtually everything from last year while adding virtually nothing in the process. It's a conference that any number of teams could conceivably win.
We obviously don't have a ton of faith in the Rebels since they're here in the top 10, but it feels like they are far more likely to make the tournament than these other teams in the top six.
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys
7 of 12
Tournaments Since 2000: 10
Tournaments Since 2010: 3
Notable Departures: Marcus Smart, Markel Brown, Brian Williams, Kamari Murphy
Oklahoma State had just about everything go wrong in 2013-14.
Devastating injury? Junior big man Michael Cobbins tore his Achilles in December.
Off-the-court distractions? Freshman point guard Stevie Clark was dismissed from the team in early February after several run-ins with the law.
On-the-court altercations? Provided having Marcus Smart shove a fan a few feet away from the court counts as on the court, um, yeah, go ahead and check that box in dark ink.
People begging for the head coach to be fired? Pretty regularly.
Yet, the Cowboys made the tournament as a No. 9 seed.
Their biggest challenge is yet to come.
They lost the three games while Smart was suspended, but he was one of the most valuable players in the country during the 31 games he was allowed to play. How will they adjust to life without their All-World point guard while simultaneously losing their starting small forward and primary center?
Adding Anthony Hickey from LSU, Jeff Newberry from JUCO and 4-star recruits Joe Burton and Mitchell Solomon will certainly help, but there's no question that Oklahoma State is expected to finish outside the top five in the 10-team Big 12.
Maybe the conference gets to send seven teams to the tournament again, but the Cowboys will be very much at the mercy of the selection committee after scheduling only one nonconference game (at Memphis) against a team with any realistic hope of dancing.
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
8 of 12
Tournaments Since 2000: 9
Tournaments Since 2010: 4
Notable Departures: Eric Atkins, Garrick Sherman
On the one hand, Notre Dame was a train wreck last season. The Fighting Irish went 6-12 in their inaugural year in the ACC and went just 1-10 against teams that finished the year ranked in the KenPom top 45. From that lackluster roster, they lost two of the players who averaged at least 13.5 PPG.
On the other hand, 12 of their 17 losses came by eight or fewer points, and they were forced to play their entire conference slate without their best player, Jerian Grant. Had he been on the roster all season, it legitimately could have made a difference of at least 6-8 wins.
The big question is whether the return of Grant will be more than enough to outweigh the loss of Eric Atkins and Garrick Sherman.
Notre Dame doesn't add a single 4- or 5-star recruit this season. Nor do the Irish have a single incoming transfer. If they're going to suddenly turn things around, it'll have to come from within.
Despite the time off, we're expecting great things from Grant. Pat Connaughton was fantastic last season and should continue to be a more-than-reliable source of offense.
Beyond that, however, Mike Brey is forced to bank on players like Zach Auguste, Demetrius Jackson and Steve Vasturia—guys who played pretty well in limited roles last season but who may or may not have what it takes to contribute for 30-35 minutes per game.
4. BYU Cougars
9 of 12
Tournaments Since 2000: 10
Tournaments Since 2010: 4
Notable Departures: Matt Carlino, Eric Mika
Dave Rose has done a fantastic job by landing four 4-star recruits between the 2013 and 2014 classes.
Unfortunately, not a single one of them will be playing this season, as Eric Mika, Nick Emery, T.J. Haws and Payton Dastrup are all serving in their LDS missions.
That leaves the 2014-15 Cougars with one outstanding player in Tyler Haws, one very good player recovering from a torn ACL in Kyle Collinsworth and a whole lot of question marks.
They'll have plenty of nonconference chances to prove themselves between the Maui Invitational and home games against Massachusetts, Stanford and Utah, but a team relying heavily on Nate Austin, Chase Fischer, Skyler Halford and Anson Winder is far from a guarantee to prove anything good.
If they don't win at least a couple of those marquee early-season games and/or score a huge win or two against Gonzaga, it's highly unlikely we'll see the Cougars sneaking into the tournament again this year.
3. Temple Owls
10 of 12
Tournaments Since 2000: 8
Tournaments Since 2010: 4
Notable Departures: Anthony Lee, Dalton Pepper
Last week, I nominated Temple as an under-the-radar team that could do some damage in 2014-15.
Now, let's look at the flip side of that coin to acknowledge why the Owls aren't getting much love from anywhere.
They lost 22 games last season while displaying a complete and utter inability to play defense. Four players on the roster averaged at least 13.5 PPG, but two of them are gone.
They add two transfers this year in Jaylen Bond and Jesse Morgan, but Bond was nothing special two years ago for Texas, and Morgan hasn't played in a game since January 2013.
Temple has a couple of noteworthy players in Will Cummings, Quenton DeCosey and Daniel Dingle, but this is an undersized team that might be lucky to finish in sixth place in what could be a three- or four-bid conference.
The Owls should bounce back soon, but it's not likely to happen this year.
2. Missouri Tigers
11 of 12
Tournaments Since 2000: 9
Tournaments Since 2010: 4
Notable Departures: Jabari Brown, Jordan Clarkson, Earnest Ross
Three players averaged better than 6.0 PPG last season for the Tigers.
One other thing those players have in common is they are each listed above as notable departures.
The Tigers suffered another blow when Notre Dame transfer Cameron Biedscheid left the program last week without ever playing a game.
It's not entirely doom and gloom for Missouri. The Tigers add three 4-star recruits and return their pair of 4-star recruits from the class of 2013 (Johnathan Williams III and Wes Clark). But that is an exceptionally young group of players trying to dig this program out of a temporary hole.
Kim Anderson and Company should be set up pretty nicely for success starting in 2015-16, but this coming season will be a transitional one to say the least.
Not only will Missouri miss the 2015 NCAA tournament, but I wouldn't even go betting on it to finish in the top 10 in the SEC.
1. Marquette Golden Eagles
12 of 12
Tournaments Since 2000: 10
Tournaments Since 2010: 4
Notable Departures: Davante Gardner, Jamil Wilson, Jake Thomas, Chris Otule
Just about everyone picked the Golden Eagles to win the Big East last season, but they fell apart in a hurry en route to a 17-15 season.
Good thing they just need to figure out how to win more games in an improving conference while losing four of their six leading scorers and learning how to play in a new coach's system after Buzz Williams left them high and dry.
What could possibly go wrong?
Steve Wojciechowski does retain Todd Mayo, Deonte Burton and Derrick Wilson while also adding BYU's Matt Carlino, but they might set an all-time record for worst rebounding margin in a season. Indiana transfer Luke Fischer is the only player on the roster taller than 6'7", and he isn't even eligible to play until mid-December.
Moreover, Mayo is the only returning player who made at least 10 three-pointers last season, and he made just 25 of them. Carlino isn't afraid to shoot it from deep, but he shot just 33.5 percent in his three seasons with BYU.
Translation: no interior presence and no perimeter game.
Marquette should be good enough to finish ahead of DePaul in the Big East, but that might be it.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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