Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 6: Smart Matchup Plays, Sleepers and More

No matter how much we pour over the numbers throughout the week, our fantasy football matchups rarely turn out the way we planned.

Rashad Jennings had a golden matchup against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. Then he got hurt, and Andre Williams reaped the rewards with 20 carries and a touchdowns. Sure, Branden Oliver popped up on savvy players' radar when Ryan Mathews went down, but who would have guessed he'd compile 182 yards and two touchdowns against the New York Jets. 

Unforeseen events occur every week, but that won't stop everyone from trying to get it right the next week. Five weeks into the season, we have a decent pool of data to play the matchups more accurately than during September's opening games. At least that helps.

The numbers bode well for some guys, while others could break out from nowhere. 

Matchup Plays

Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants (at Philadelphia Eagles)

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Remember that 70 percent completion rate that new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo set as a benchmark? Well that's still not going to happen, but Eli Manning's 66.3 percent clip resents a career best by a far margin.

Manning looked lost last year, throwing a league-worst 27 interceptions with a 57.5 completion percentage. Lately, however, the offense started to click. In his last three games, Manning is 68-of-97 with nine touchdowns and one interception. In less than a month, he went from unownable to an intriguing matchup play.

He described his revival to the New York Post's Howie Kussoy: 

"

Having everyone understand what the flow of the game is going to be, how quick we’ve got to push the tempo or a no-huddle … the adjustments we make and just playing right, playing a little bit faster, and just understanding the offense. I think that’s been the biggest difference We’re starting to make some plays and do some good things, and we’re just staying patient when things don’t go well.

"

Odell Beckham Jr.'s arrival makes the rejuvenated offense even better. Although Manning missed him for what would have been a deep touchdown after the rookie blew past his defender, the two later connected for his first career touchdown.

All the elements are present for a big day against the Philadelphia Eagles, the dubious owners of the league's No. 29 passing defense. They've allowed a combined 802 passing yards and six touchdowns to Kirk Cousins and Austin Davis.

Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys (at Seattle Seahawks)

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Yes, Jason Witten has dropped this far. A once must-start, he's now a debatable option as he searches for his first touchdown of the season.

Getting it at Seattle against the Seahawks sure seems like the wrong time to ask for that score. Even if he were playing well, some owners would consider benching him given the matchup. But hold up; the Seahawks have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends entering Monday night's game, per ESPN.com.

Antonio Gates did most of the work there, scoring three touchdowns during the San Diego Chargers' upset on the road.

With Richard Sherman roaming a sideline and Earl Thomas lurking downfield, look for Tony Romo to target his trusted tight end down the middle. Despite his fantasy struggles, Witten has received at least five targets in every game this season. 

Even if he doesn't find the end zone, Witten is a solid bet for a few catches and some solid yardage in an otherwise tough matchup for Dallas. That's a plus at a notoriously feast-or-famine position.

Sleeper to Start

Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee Titans (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)

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Is it possible to discuss matchups to exploit without mentioning the Jacksonville Jaguars? They're the easiest opponent for fantasy managers to target, and Justin Hunter will reap the rewards this weekend after a terrific Week 5 outing. 

Following a silent September, Hunter broke out against the Cleveland Browns with a season-high 99 yards and his first touchdown of 2014. Pro Football Focus' Mike Clay noted the simple reason for Hunter's breakout performance: More playing time.

Then again, all of his production came on one 75-yard touchdown grab from Charlie Whitehurst. And even though the preseason sleeper entered Week 5 with just nine receptions, he had been targeted 27 times.

In normal circumstances, I'd say this is reason for impatient owners to hold on to Hunter, and those with impatient leaguemates to add him if dropped. This week, however, he's facing the Jaguars, who rank last in passing defense and fifth-worst in fantasy points allowed to wideouts.

He's not the safest play, but there's a solid chance you'll regret leaving him on the bench again.

Sleeper to Sit

Ronnie Hillman, RB, Denver Broncos (at New York Jets)

Montee Ball suffered a groin strain during Week 5's win over the Arizona Cardinals, forcing fantasy owners to once again fall in love with the Denver Broncos' new running back.

According to ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold, Ball may miss significant time, which would cause Ronnie Hillman to slide into more touches. He ran 15 times for 64 times against Arizona, the league's No. 5 run defense.

Place a waiver claim for him, but before immediately starting him, look at the schedule. He now faces the New York Jets, the league's No. 6 rushing defense. Considering their secondary woes, it'd make no sense for John Fox not to let Peyton Manning air it out 47 times again. Heck, why not let the Hall of Famer throw it even more?

While Branden Oliver demolished the same New York front seven, this is still a team that previously contained Eddie Lacy and Matt Forte. Let's not dispose of the unit after one off day. Also, as ESPN's Matthew Berry noted, Hillman isn't guaranteed to take over for Ball:

If you're in a bind at the flex spot, fine. Everyone with Jamaal Charles will scramble to replace the idle star, and running back isn't littered with studs, so some deep-league players may not have a better alternative.

But among this week's hot waiver-wire adds, Oliver and Andre Williams are both much better plays. 

Rank	Player	Position
1	Branden Oliver, SD	RB
2	Andre Williams, NYG	RB
3	Odell Beckham Jr., NYG	WR
4	Ronnie Hillman, DEN	RB
5	Allen Robinson, JAC	WR
6	Austin Davis, STL	QB
7	Owen Daniels, BAL	TE
8	Benjamin Cunningham, STL	RB
9	Tim Wright, NE	TE
10	Antone Smith, ATL	RB