MLB Free Agents 2014-15: Predicting Final Landing Spots for the Top 15 Players
With the playoffs well under way, the 2014-15 MLB free-agent period is growing closer by the day. Predicting where the top 15 free agents land this offseason is the topic we are going to examine.
Two things before we get going.
First, the players discussed here were taken from this post on the top 25 players available relative to their position. That does not mean that one player is better than the next. Rather, it signifies a player's value as it relates to his position.
To be clear, Hanley Ramirez is not better than Max Scherzer. Ramirez is more valuable, however, when looking at his contributions as a shortstop compared to what Scherzer is capable of providing as a starting pitcher based on position rank.
Second, the predictions are based on several things, including payroll obligations in the coming seasons, need at the given position and whether or not the signing team has a protected draft pick should a qualifying offer be turned down. For more information on qualifying offers, see this piece by Ben Nicholson-Smith from MLBTradeRumors.com.
Here are the predicted landing spots for the top 15 players who will become free agents this offseason.
15. Zach Duke, LHP
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If you’ve watched any of the American League Division Series between the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles, you will have noticed that the Tigers bullpen is just terrible.
The Chicago White Sox are worse.
General manager Rick Hahn’s unit had the third-worst ERA (4.38) in MLB last season, the second-worst FIP (4.22) and issued the most walks every nine innings (4.51) in the game, per FanGraphs. Left-handers were especially bad, which makes the team a logical destination for Zach Duke.
On the season, Duke went 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA, 2.14 FIP and 1.125 WHIP and struck out 11.4 batters every nine innings. More impressively, he didn’t allow an inherited runner to cross home plate over his final 16 appearances and held right-handed hitters to a .242/.288/.298 slash line against, per Baseball-Reference.
There figures to be more than one team in pursuit of Duke, but given the deficiencies in the White Sox bullpen, it would be a surprise if Hahn were outbid.
14. Koji Uehara, RHP
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You would think that pitching to a 2.52 ERA with a 0.917 WHIP, 11.2 strikeouts every nine innings and 26 saves in 31 opportunities would create a bit more excitement.
Alas, Boston Red Sox right-hander Koji Uehara struggled mightily down the stretch, losing his job as closer toward the end of the season. The situation led Nick Cafardo from The Boston Globe to ask a handful of questions at the beginning of September:
"In retrospect, should the Red Sox have dealt Uehara when they had the chance? There were numerous teams that inquired around the trade deadline who must be extremely happy Boston said no.
While there’s universal support for Uehara in the Red Sox clubhouse given his incredible 2013 season and predominantly strong 2014, is there faith he can do the job in 2015?
How far will the Red Sox now go with an offer to the pending free agent if the feeling is he’s finally broken down?
"
Fair questions, indeed. Thankfully, Uehara’s final three outings were above board, assuaging some of the fears on the part of the Red Sox.
To that end, manager John Farrell recently said that “It’s no secret we’d like to retain Koji,” adding that Uehara is “the guy we want to anchor the back of our bullpen,” via the club’s official Twitter feed.
And that is all it takes. General manager Ben Cherington will get a two- or three-year deal done to keep Uehara with the Red Sox.
13. Adam LaRoche, 1B
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Washington Nationals first baseman Adam LaRoche has a $15 million mutual option for next season. As he told Mark Zuckerman from NatsInsider.com, however, he doesn’t expect it to be picked up. “If you had to ask me now,” he said, “I would assume that I would have to move on, unfortunately.”
And when the Nationals exercise the $2 million buyout, LaRoche will immediately vault to the top of the list of available first basemen. Safe money says the team that lands him will be the Milwaukee Brewers, who got a .207/.287/.356 slash line from the position this past season, per Baseball-Reference.
Sure, the Brewers have Matt Clark, who spent a year playing in Japan before putting up a .304/.376/.548 slash line with 26 home runs in the minors for two organizations, which earned him a call-up to the big leagues. The only problem is that he is wholly unproven, and the Brewers figure to field a competitive team next season.
It must be noted that general manager Doug Melvin has plenty of other alternatives, including Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Braun and Jason Rogers, in addition to Clark. Lucroy is still a couple of years away from a move to first, however, while Braun is a health risk no matter where he is on the field and Rogers is best served staying at third base.
Adding LaRoche on a two- or three-year deal is a safer play. For his career, LaRoche has a .264/.340/.472 slash line with 243 home runs.
12. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS/2B
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Asdrubal Cabrera did all the right things following his trade to the Washington Nationals at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.
He increased his on-base percentage from .305 to .312, and his slugging went up a few ticks (literally) from .386 to .389. True, his batting average took a dip, but Cabrera acquitted himself nicely by drawing almost as many walks with the Nationals as he did with the Cleveland Indians in 216 fewer plate appearances.
More importantly, he proved to be up to the task of playing second base on a regular basis, which bodes well for a club like the Toronto Blue Jays, who need a second baseman.
First of all, signing Cabrera means that Brett Lawrie can move back to third base, which is his natural position. Second, the free agent will add a bit of everything to the lineup with his ability to drive the gaps, get on base and move runners over.
Cabrera will also fit in general manager Alex Anthopoulos’ well-known financial model that dictates a five-year limit on all contracts.
11. Pablo Sandoval, 3B
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It’s almost a matter of necessity that the Boston Red Sox go out and grab a third baseman, and Pablo Sandoval is that guy.
There are three reasons why Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington will make the move.
First, Sandoval is a productive and consistent left-handed hitter. Over the past three seasons, for example, he has a .280/.335/.424 slash line and is averaging 14 home runs with 72 RBI and 26 doubles, per Baseball-Reference.
That type of production would immediately improve the Red Sox lineup by adding balance to the middle of the order and protection behind David Ortiz.
The second reason is that unlike Chase Headley, Sandoval has been able to stay healthy over the past two seasons. His weight has been a concern, of course, but there have been no lingering issues with his back or knees that will prevent him from manning the hot corner for the next couple of years.
And that leads into the final point. See, eventually Sandoval’s defensive abilities will deteriorate to the point that he is no longer a viable option at third. Thankfully, that will likely coincide with the retirement of Ortiz.
That is, of course, if Sandoval signs a five-year deal, which is what “most major league executives” believe will be the case, per Nick Cafardo from The Boston Globe.
Expect Cherington to make Sandoval a priority.
10. James Shields, SP
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According to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, “the early industry buzz has [James] Shields going to the [Boston] Red Sox.”
Kansas City Royals pitching coach Dave Eiland is confident that he can handle the bright lights of New York should the Yankees sign him, via Dan Martin from the New York Post.
Evan Grant from The Dallas Morning News has a better idea. He posits that “the [Texas] Rangers might prefer Shields because they might be able to get him on a shorter (three or four-year deal) than the other two.” And by other two, of course, he means Jon Lester and Max Scherzer.
Grant's train of thought makes a lot of sense. Shields may not cost a whole lot less per annum, but he may sign on a shorter deal to maximize the dollars and then make a run at another large contract.
Grant did note that signing any pitcher is going to be difficult given the state of the franchise, but Shields would certainly be a difference-maker.
He would join Yu Darvish, Derek Holland and Martin Perez (expected to return in June of next season following Tommy John surgery). It must be noted that Colby Lewis—who is scheduled to hit free agency—could be brought back into the fold sooner rather than later, per ESPN Dallas’ Calvin Watkins.
Either way, the prediction here is that general manager Jon Daniels will make Shields an offer he won't refuse.
9. Chase Headley, 3B
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Following his trade from the San Diego Padres to the New York Yankees, third baseman Chase Headley compiled a .262/.371/.398 slash line, played stellar defense and put up a 2.1 WAR in only 58 games. To say that he was impressive would be an understatement.
The problem for Headley is that he is something of an enigma.
We all know he’s not the guy who belted 31 home runs and collected 115 RBI in 2012. More likely, he is a player who will hit 13 home runs, drive in 50, get on base at around a .330 clip and flash some leather at the hot corner.
And that’s not all that bad.
Given his injury history, however, he will forever be on short-term contracts laden with incentives, as clubs will be reluctant to offer him a sizable guarantee. Such is the nature of the business.
Now this only happens if Pablo Sandoval leaves town (which is likely), but Headley will end up with the San Francisco Giants on a one-year deal with a nice base salary, plenty of production incentives and a mutual option for the 2016 season.
It may seem strange to even consider adding Headley to the Giants roster, but general manager Brian Sabean needs to find a cost-effective option at third base next season as he waits for the contracts of Tim Hudson and Tim Lincecum ($30 million combined) to come off the books after next season. After that, he will have much greater flexibility with payroll.
8. Max Scherzer, SP
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Max Scherzer will have plenty of options this offseason, including the Yankees. That is if you ask Andy Martino from the New York Daily News, who wrote that if general manager Brian Cashman is going to shower a free agent with heaps of cash, “he’s the guy.”
Then there are the Red Sox to consider. After all, chairman Tom Werner recently said that his club has “a lot of money to spend” this offseason, via Jerry Spar from WEEI. Is there a better way to spend that coin than on a Cy Young winner still at his peak?
For as legitimate as those arguments are, however, Scherzer is going to land with the St. Louis Cardinals.
First off, Adam Wainwright is the only starting pitcher fully under contract (no option years) past next season, per Cots Contracts. In other words, there is a bit of financial flexibility.
Another thing to keep in mind is that Scherzer may not end up with a contract akin to the one given to Clayton Kershaw. Citing the fact that there are three top-tier free agents, several mid-level ones and numerous trade candidates, Joel Sherman from the New York Post noted, “there is a lot of supply, which generally lowers prices.”
And for as deep as the Cardinals rotation is when healthy, having a guy like Scherzer only makes them better.
7. Andrew Miller, LHP
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This is almost a no-brainer. Andrew Miller will end up with the Tigers next year.
Simply put, the woes run deep in the Motor City.
To that effect, the bullpen finished the regular season ranked No. 13 in the American League in ERA (4.29), No. 14 in strikeouts (385) and last in batting average against (.270). And in the ALDS against the Orioles, the unit surrendered 10 earned runs in the first two games.
It is not good.
Miller, on the other hand, is a beast. This past season, he put up a 2.02 ERA, 1.51 FIP, 0.802 WHIP and struck out 103 in 62.1 innings between the Orioles and Red Sox. It’s almost unfair.
Because of Miller’s dominance and the futility of manager Brad Ausmus’ bullpen, Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski likely already has a contract drawn up for the left-hander.
All he’s waiting for is the bell to ring on free agency, and Miller will be offered a three- or four-year deal for over market value.
6. Hanley Ramirez, SS
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Going out on a limb here, but Hanley Ramirez will end up with the Houston Astros.
For starters, the Los Angeles Dodgers aren’t going to make a substantial investment in Ramirez with Corey Seager waiting in the wings. True, the phenom may not be ready when the 2015 season begins, but you can bet that he’ll get the call at some point next season, essentially eliminating a two- or three-year deal for Ramirez.
To be sure, the Dodgers will extend a qualifying offer to Ramirez, which he will turn down, and of the teams that have protected first-round picks, the Houston Astros make the most sense—for two reasons.
First, they can use him at shortstop until Carlos Correa is ready. And as Peter Gammons suggested in late August, Ramirez may be best served on “an American League club where he could occasionally DH.”
Either way, Ramirez isn’t going to get anywhere close to the $100 million CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported he was looking for in the middle of May.
5. J.J. Hardy, SS
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When Derek Jeter retired, it left a hole on the 25-man roster that the Yankees can’t fill from the inside. Luckily for Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, J.J. Hardy is set to hit free agency this offseason.
It makes sense that Hardy will be the first guy he’ll turn to.
To be sure, this only goes down if the Orioles don’t work out a deal to keep him around. If and when he hits the open market, though, you’d better believe Cashman will be waiting to hand Hardy a three- or four-year deal.
And if you think about it, Hardy would be a significant upgrade over Jeter in the field and at the plate.
This past season, for example, he slashed out at .268/.309/.372 and had a 20.4 defensive rating, per FanGraphs. Jeter, meanwhile, finished with a .256/.304/.313 slash line and a minus-4.0 defensive rating.
The simple fact is that even though Ramirez has a much better bat, Hardy is the best shortstop who could hit free agency. Again, expect Cashman to be waiting for him.
4. Jon Lester, SP
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In the same clip in which he stated that Shields would be going to the Red Sox, Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal said that Jon Lester was heading to the Chicago Cubs. And unlike Shields—whom we have signing with the Texas Rangers—there is no reason to disagree with Rosenthal.
It makes too much sense.
The Cubs have the cash (and then some) that they earmarked for Masahiro Tanaka in their failed attempt to land him last offseason already set aside. And if you include the $20 million posting fee, that worked out to a total of $140 million over six years, per CSN Chicago’s Patrick Mooney.
They made a waiver claim on Cole Hamels of the Philadelphia Phillies this season. They’ve accelerated their development plan for several young stars, including Javier Baez and Jorge Soler.
Flat out, club president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer are going to start finalizing what they believe will be a championship roster this winter.
Lester is that guy in the rotation they are going to prioritize. It would be a surprise to see the left-hander land anywhere else, including with the Red Sox.
3. Russell Martin, C
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The hope is that Russell Martin will re-sign with the Pirates.
After all, general manager Neal Huntington recently said that the club is “going to try to do everything we can to keep” the All-Star catcher, per Travis Sawchick from the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
Unfortunately, it’s highly unlikely the Pirates will be able to afford his contract. To wit, Sawchick penned an article that put Martin’s performance at or above the likes of Yadier Molina, Brian McCann, Carlos Ruiz and Miguel Montero. Three of them signed a five-year deal for at least $60 million after putting up numbers that are lower than what Martin has over the past three seasons.
There is simply no way that the Pirates can muster up a $60 million deal, yet that's what the market says Martin is worth—at minimum, notwithstanding the discount Ruiz gave to the Phillies.
One club that can, however, is the Dodgers, who drafted Martin in 2002.
First off, A.J. Ellis isn’t productive enough, regardless of his showing in this season's National League Division Series. Second, there is a strong chance that the offense will take a hit with the expected departure of Ramirez this offseason.
Martin not only improves play behind the plate, but he fills a hole in the lineup.
To be sure, he is a fit for the White Sox and a host of other teams. The Dodgers, however, will land the best catcher on the market.
2. Nelson Cruz, DH
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Nelson Cruz is another guy who will be heading to the Rangers.
First off, the Rangers need a power bat to hit sixth behind the likes of Adrian Beltre and Prince Fielder, according to Jeff Wilson from the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. And as Wilson correctly notes, whoever they sign will have to be able to handle designated hitter duties and one of the outfield spots or behind the plate.
Well, Cruz has two of those covered.
Now, there is a chance that he will remain with the Orioles. Frankly, the Orioles have every reason to bring him back.
He slashed out at .271/.333/.525 with 40 home runs, 108 RBI and 32 doubles and scored 87 times during the regular season after signing a one-year, $8 million contract. He then followed that up by slashing out at .500/.500/1.000 with two home runs and five RBI in the ALDS against the Tigers.
It comes down to this for Cruz: If he makes it to free agency after turning down a qualifying offer from the Orioles, he is going to sign with a club that has a protected pick. And that club could very well be the Rangers.
1. Victor Martinez, DH
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The need for a guy like designated hitter Victor Martinez is almost universal.
The Yankees, for example, would love to have him in the lineup to make up for the deficiencies of Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran as well as to mitigate any further decline in Alex Rodriguez’s skills.
The White Sox are another club that would cherish Martinez. After all, the DH has been a wasteland of production since then-general manager Kenny Williams signed Adam Dunn to a four-year deal prior to the 2011 season.
The list goes on to include the Red Sox and almost every American League team.
Alas, Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski isn’t about to let the most important hitter in his lineup walk. Yes, that was said knowing full well that Miguel Cabrera is a two-time MVP, but without Martinez’s protection, Cabrera would not be as productive as he has been.
Perhaps Tony Paul from The Detroit News said it best when he wrote that Martinez has “earned every penny of the three years and $45 million he’s going to get, and the Tigers can’t afford to play hardball” with him.
That’s about right. Martinez will be back with the Tigers barring an unforeseen series of events.
Unless otherwise noted, all traditional, team and historical statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference. Transaction, injury and game information are courtesy of MLB.com. Contract info taken from Cots Contracts.
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