NFL Week 5 Picks: Against-the-Spread Picks for Each Game

With most teams at the quarter pole and the remaining stragglers getting there this week, we're about at the point where our preseason assumptions start going by the wayside, and the on-field product does all the talking.

The New Orleans Saints? Not a Super Bowl contender unless Rob Ryan performs a talent transplant on his defense. The San Diego Chargers? May just have added enough talent to challenge the Denver Broncos in the AFC West. The Jacksonville Jaguars as an ascending sleeper? Tell me how that worked out, pals. The Oakland Raiders as a professional sports franchise? Heh.

Some of our assumptions have been confirmed and others debunked. What's nice about getting a representative sample, though, is we can start to get an idea of what to expect.

The Jaguars and Raiders are going to have a tough time finding games where they're less than a touchdown underdog. Vegas oddsmakers are also starting to recognize some supposedly elite teams aren't so, though New Orleans is a heavy favorite against Tampa Bay this week.

Right now, we're in the sweet spot of the NFL schedule. The lines haven't moved enough to where they're untenable, yet we have enough data to know who's good—at least from a statistical perspective. With that in mind, let's take a quick look at all the Week 5 matchups and highlight ones of particular interest.

Date	Away	Home	Spread	Pick Straight Up
Thursday, Oct. 2	Minnesota Vikings	Green Bay Packers	GB (-10)	GB
Sunday, Oct. 5	Chicago Bears	Carolina Panthers	CAR (-2.5)	CHI
Sunday, Oct. 5	Cleveland Browns	Tennessee Titans	TEN (-2.5)	CLE
Sunday, Oct. 5	St. Louis Rams	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI (-7)	PHI
Sunday, Oct. 5	Atlanta Falcons	New York Giants	NYG (-3.5)	ATL
Sunday, Oct. 5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	New Orleans Saints	NO (-12)	TB
Sunday, Oct. 5	Houston Texans	Dallas Cowboys	DAL (-4)	DAL
Sunday, Oct. 5	Buffalo Bills	Detroit Lions	DET (-6.5)	DET
Sunday, Oct. 5	Baltimore Ravens	Indianapolis Colts	IND (-3)	IND
Sunday, Oct. 5	Pittsburgh Steelers	Jacksonville Jaguars	PIT (-5.5)	PIT
Sunday, Oct. 5	Arizona Cardinals	Denver Broncos	DEN (-7)	DEN
Sunday, Oct. 5	Kansas City Chiefs	San Francisco 49ers	SF (-7.5)	SF
Sunday, Oct. 5	New York Jets	San Diego Chargers	SD (-7)	SD
Sunday, Oct. 5	Cincinnati Bengals	New England Patriots	NE (-2.5)	NE
Monday, Oct. 6	Seattle Seahawks	Washington	SEA (-7)	SEA

Chicago Bears (+2.5) over Carolina Panthers

David Banks/Getty Images

The loser of this game is going to have a difficult time making the playoffs. Sunday marks the beginning of four road games in six-week stretch for Chicago, one of those being a bye. The Bears hit Atlanta, New England and Green Bay with only a home Miami sweetener thrown in.

The Panthers aren't as road-heavy, but their schedule may be harder. Their schedule before Week 12's bye goes as follows: vs. Chicago, at Cincinnati, at Green Bay, vs. Seattle, vs. New Orleans, at Philadelphia, vs. Atlanta.

All of those could be playoff teams come season's end. I'd use the phrase "murderer's row," but that seems a disservice; that's a depths-of-hell schedule. The Panthers would be lucky to finish that seven-game stretch 3-4, which would make them 5-6 heading into a relatively breezy finish.

Chicago and New Orleans have been the worst teams on that list so far in terms of DVOA, so Cam Newton and Co. better hope for a quick turnaround.

The Panthers, who were a fashionable regression team heading into 2014, looked unchanged from last season in opening wins over Tampa Bay and Detroit. Their defense carried them to a win with American football quarterback Derek Anderson under center against the Bucs. 

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

However, the last two weeks have pushed those regression predictions to the forefront again. The Steelers and Ravens, two teams it's safe to say are a step down from world-beaters, have outscored the Panthers 75-29 in consecutive drubbings. Their running game is down to undrafted free agent Darrin Reaves, whose name I just had to Google to make sure it wasn't "Darren Reeves."

Carolina's running game has only been made worse by Cam Newton's rib injury, which continues to prevent Ron Rivera from unleashing him on designed runs. Newton has 33 yards through three games, easily the worst rushing stretch of his career. His two carries against Baltimore and Pittsburgh set a career low.

All of this has happened while the Panthers defense has fallen apart in all facets. The Steelers made grinders Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount look like prime Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles, rushing for 265 yards on 31 carries. A week later Joe Flacco balled out to the tune of 327 yards and three touchdowns in the Steve Smith Mowed Lawn Classic.

The Bears are not without their own issues, but the problems don't nearly run as deep. Brandon Marshall's ongoing ankle injury has been a chemistry and performance problem, and it'll be interesting to see if a solid week of practice can get him back in a groove. Chicago's run defense problems, usually a noticeable flaw, should not be much of an issue with the unproven Reaves behind Newton.

I don't see this being particularly close.

New England Patriots (-2.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

One cannot look at these two teams through a fully objective lens and pick the Patriots. It's impossible. The Bengals through their first three games looked like the best all-around team in football. Their total DVOA was 9 percent better than any other team, ranking fifth offensively and leading all comers defensively despite playing two possible playoff teams in Baltimore and Atlanta.

The Patriots, meanwhile, have looked like a train wreck. They were blown out so badly last week in Kansas City that Bill Belichick benched Tom Brady in favor of Jimmy Garoppolo.

Brady, hamstrung by a terrible offensive line and below-average skill-position players, is in the midst of his worst professional season. He has more fumbles (five) than touchdowns (four) and is averaging a pitiful 5.77 yards per attempt.

In a nutshell: Brady is Alex Smith on his worst day.

"I'm doing the best job I can do out there," Brady told reporters Wednesday (via ESPN). "I'll try to go out there and play better, play as well as I possibly can each week."

Brady hasn't had much help, but he's been far from a positive. His feet look happy enough in the pocket to manage a Bennigan's, sensing pressure that's not yet there and forcing the ball into his first read before a downfield play can develop. Brady, like all quarterbacks, has gone through bad stretches in the past. But we're now 20 games into a sample wherein he's looked ordinary more often than spectacular.

Trying to beat the Bengals through the air this season has been death. Cincinnati's minus-40.2 pass defense DVOA is more than 24 points better than the second-place team, which so happens to be these Patriots. To put that in proper perspective, New England is roughly as close to 15th-place Philadelphia as it is to Cincinnati.

The trio of Terence Newman, Leon Hall and Adam Jones have been excellent on the outside, and the Bengals linebackers and safeties have done an admirable job underneath. Emmanuel Lamur has emerged as a fine coverage linebacker on the strong side.

Nick Wass/Associated Press

While both teams' passing games should struggle, their respective run games should flourish. The Bengals have nearly been as bad against the run as they have good against the pass. The Chiefs embarrassed the New England front seven Monday night by pounding them time and again with Knile Davis and Jamaal Charles.

Again, when looking at these teams subjectively, Cincy has the advantage. The duo of Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill are subjectively better than Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen. 

So, why the Patriots? I guess mostly just history. Bill Belichick-coached teams don't lose twice in a row. It's happened 10 times during his tenure and only four times since 2002. The thing about dynasties is that you never know they're over until they're REALLY over. If the Patriots can't get it together in time for Sunday night, it's probably time to prepare our postmortem. 

Seattle Seahawks (-7) Over Washington

David Seelig/Associated Press

This game brings up a question that's thrown around on a near-weekly basis: How much better are the Seahawks at home than on the road? The line suggests Washington would be a 10-point underdog on a neutral field and a 13-point dog at Qwest Field. There is no conceivable circumstance in which a rational human being would take Washington to come within two touchdowns in Seattle.

Is the cross-country swing enough to make seven-plus points of difference? Not after the display we saw Kirk Cousins put in last week's loss to the Giants.

Cousins was every bit as bad last Thursday as he was good in his first two starts, throwing four interceptions and buckling amid New York pressure off the edge.

The Jaguars and Eagles put no pressure to speak of on Cousins in his first two starts, and the former Michigan State product looked like a revelation. He fired strong, accurate passes to his receiver downfield and underneath to the point even rational folks were calling for a quarterback controversy.

Some pressure off the edge and some happy feet later, Cousins has completely regressed to his career-mistake mean. Coming into 2013, he'd thrown an interception once every 20.3 passes—an abysmal rate. His four-pick, boo-filled outing last Thursday put him at one interception every 22.8 passes, good for football's fifth-worst interception rate among qualifying passers.

“It’s like Christmas,” Giants defensive back Zack Bowman told reporters, per the The Big Lead's Jason Lisk. “It’s like blood in the water. We just keep going at him and going at him. They come in bunches.”

John Froschauer/Associated Press

Antrel Rolle also used the famed December holiday to describe playing against the Washington quarterback. I don't know if you know this, but it is typically a bad thing when defenders use descriptors that imply gift-giving when discussing an opposing quarterback.

The Seahawks, as you may have heard, are quite adept at stopping the passing game. Seattle is just 19th in passing yards allowed, but it has faced a murderer's row of quarterbacks so far in Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning. With apologies to the guy under center in Seattle, those might be the NFL's three best quarterbacks at the moment.

Kirk Cousins? Not quite at that level. Even at his best. With two weeks to prepare, this game could get ugly. Look for Washington to solidify itself as the dregs of the NFC East and the beltway to begin a countdown calendar to Robert Griffin III's return.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.

All advanced metrics are courtesy of Football Outsiders. Hat tip to Odds Shark for the lines.