NFL Picks Week 5: Examining Recent Odds and Expert Predictions

If there were ever such a thing as a dull week in the NFL, Week 5 might just be it.

Of the 15 games on the slate, an astounding nine of them feature a spread of five points or larger. There are no pick'em's, and as you'll see below, there isn't a ton of disagreement between the experts.

Still, though, this is the NFL we're talking about. As soon as we think we have a solid read on a team or game, the exact opposite happens.

Last week, the Atlanta Falcons, fresh off a 42-point victory, gave up nearly 600 total yards to a rookie quarterback and the Minnesota Vikings. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who were on the wrong side of that 42-point blowout and were suddenly dubbed as the worst team in history, went into Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers.

Of course.

So, even though this week's schedule looks decidedly lopsided in most spots, don't assume there won't be any excitement. Let's take a look.

Odds

Thursday, Oct. 2	Line	O/U
Sunday, Oct. 5	Line	O/U
Minnesota at Green Bay	GB -10	47.5
Baltimore at Indianapolis	IND -3	49
Tampa Bay at New Orleans	NO -12	48
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville	PIT -5.5	47
Atlanta at NY Giants	NYG -3.5	50.5
Chicago at Carolina	CAR -2.5	46.5
St. Louis at Philadelphia	PHI -7	47.5
Houston at Dallas	DAL -4	46.5
Cleveland at Tennessee	TEN -2.5	44
Buffalo at Detroit	DET -6.5	43.5
Arizona at Denver	DEN -7	48.5
NY Jets at San Diego	SD -7	43.5
Kansas City at San Francisco	SF -7.5	44.5
Cincinnati at New England	NE -2.5	46
Seattle at Washington	SEA -7	46

Note: Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

Expert Predictions

Matchup	Matt Bowen (B/R)	Matt Miller (B/R)	Chris Simms (B/R)	Pete Prisco (CBS)	Jason La Canfora (CBS)	Michael Fabiano (NFL)
MIN at GB	GB	GB	MIN	GB	GB	GB
BAL at IND	IND	IND	BAL	IND	BAL	IND
TB at NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
PIT at JAX	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT
ATL at NYG	NYG	ATL	NYG	NYG	NYG	NYG
CHI at CAR	CHI	CHI	CAR	CAR	CHI	CHI
STL at PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI
HOU at DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	HOU
CLE at TEN	CLE	CLE	CLE	TEN	CLE	CLE
BUF at DET	DET	DET	DET	DET	DET	DET
ARI at DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN
NYJ at SD	SD	SD	SD	SD	SD	SD
KC at SF	SF	SF	SF	SF	SF	SF
CIN at NE	CIN	CIN	CIN	CIN	CIN	NE
SEA at WAS	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA

Complete list of Bleacher Report expert picks can be found here. CBS Sports picks can be found here. NFL.com picks can be found here.

Analysis

There are just two games on the schedule where the six experts above split at anything closer than 5-1: Baltimore at Indianapolis and Chicago at Carolina.

The first is arguably the marquee game of the week, featuring two scorching teams. The Ravens have won three in a row by a combined 50 points, while the Colts have erased a Week 2 meltdown against Philadelphia with two consecutive 40-plus-point outbursts.

Andrew Luck is shredding opposing secondaries to the tune of a ridiculous 7.8 yards per attempt and 13-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He is playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now, and the MVP chatter grows with each subsequent week.

Still, both he and head coach Chuck Pagano have been quick to point out Baltimore's ferocious defense:

However, it's worth noting the Ravens, while stifling against the run, rank 29th in sack percentage, 28th in interception percentage and 24th in passing yards per attempt allowed, per pro-football-reference.com. And they haven't faced anyone under center nearly as talented as Luck.

On the other side of the ball, though, Baltimore features a multifaceted offensive attack, while the Colts have struggled on defense and will be without safety LaRon Landry. This one screams entertaining shootout.

Looking elsewhere, the most bizarre spread of the week has to be the New England Patriots being favored by 2.5 points against the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals. The Pats are at home, sure, but they looked atrocious against Kansas City on Monday night, and quarterback Tom Brady is in the midst of his worst NFL season, per Fox Sports:

"

So far, this has been Tom Brady's WORST season. #FSLive pic.twitter.com/Uru9bmhOrx

— FOX Sports Live (@FOXSportsLive) October 2, 2014"

While the offensive line and wide receivers deserve blame, as well, Pro Football Focus' Sam Monson argued the future Hall of Famer's play has still been part of the problem:

New England is not as bad as it showed on national television last week. A bounce-back would not be surprising. But favored over Cincy? The Bengals rank first in Football Outsiders' team efficiency ratings and are widely considered one of the three best teams in the NFL.

Bill Belichick, via Bleacher Report's Erik Frenz, put it simply:

Of the 30 experts from Bleacher Report, CBS Sports and NFL.com (links above), 28 picked the Bengals, who are coming off a bye. To get 2.5 points seems like highway robbery.

Which, knowing how the NFL typically plays out, makes it the perfect game for New England to win by a pair of touchdowns.