NFL Predictions Week 5: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections

If there's one thing in the NFL that's easy to predict, it's that things will be unpredictable.

Week 4 served as an object lesson in that chaos. If you added together all the people who thought the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would beat the Pittsburgh Steelers and the folks who thought the Philadelphia Eagles would score three non-offensive touchdowns and still lose and put them in a room...

Well, there'd be plenty of space for furniture.

That isn't to say that the National and Division Lead Writers here at Bleacher Report can't read some tea leaves. They hit the proverbial nail on the head with their pick for "Upset of the Week" in Week 4, the Kansas City Chiefs—much to the chagrin of fans of the reeling New England Patriots.

Let's see if they can keep that momentum going in Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections for Week 5.

Upset of the Week

Jamie Sabau/Getty Images

Winner: Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5, per OddsShark) over New England Patriots (5 votes)

This pick is hardly an upset strictly from an NFL perspective and proof positive that not everyone who bets on football follows the sport as closely as they should.

If they did, there's no way the Bengals would be getting points, even on the road.

After all, the Bengals are the last undefeated team in the AFC, a team that headed into its Week 4 bye playing as well as any in the NFL. The Bengals are seventh in the NFL in total offense and are first in points allowed, giving up a measly 11 points a game.

Meanwhile the Patriots are—well, the Patriots aren't doing so well.

Fresh off a 41-14 pounding at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs, the Patriots have fallen all the way to 29th in the NFL in total offense. Even quarterback Tom Brady admitted during his weekly radio interview on WEEI (via ESPNBoston.com) that the Pats are a mess offensively:

"

That's obviously going to reflect in every statistic that you can find, that we don't have the kind of offense that's going to perform at a high level. Everyone's connected. It all ties together. If we're not playing well, we're not going to have good stats.

"

Many have pointed the finger at Brady himself, wondering aloud if the golden boy has lost his shine. However, former Patriots great Tedy Bruschi, now of ESPN, thinks the root of the problem lies with the turnstiles in front of Brady:

"

I don't know what can be fixed right now offensively when you have offensive line problems like they have. When you think your two offensive tackles might show you some good play, and they're not doing that. Then with two rookies in there, and a rotation they tried to implement -- Nate Solder's out, Solder's in; Ryan Wendell comes in and plays guard when he was your starting center for two years. They have major problems up front.

"

Whatever the reasons for New England's struggles, these are two teams barreling in opposite directions right now. There's little reason to think the gap isn't going to get wider Sunday night.

In any event, it appears that the wagering public is sobering up. In the span of a few days the line on this game has shifted several points, with the Bengals now giving a point or two at most sports books. 

Others receiving votes: Kansas City Chiefs (+6.5) over San Francisco 49ers (4 votes), Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) over Pittsburgh Steelers (2 votes), Chicago Bears (+3) over Carolina Panthers (2 votes), Houston Texans (+7) over Dallas Cowboys (1 vote), Buffalo Bills (+9) over Detroit Lions (1 vote)

More Passing Yards: Andy Dalton or Tom Brady

Jamie Sabau/Getty Images

Winner: Andy Dalton (14-1)

Beginning in Week 5 we're spicing up the weekly predictions here at Bleacher Report by including a handful of game-specific prognostications.

The first goes to show just how far the New England offense has fallen in 2014.

It wasn't that long ago that had you asked which of these quarterbacks would have more passing yards in Sunday's prime-time matchup, you'd have gotten an eye roll and maybe a chuckle.

No one's laughing now. Through four games this season, Brady has averaged less than 200 passing yards a game. Meanwhile, Dalton hasn't exactly been making a run at Peyton Manning's single-season passing-yardage record, but the fourth-year pro is averaging over 40 more yards per contest (240.6).

Granted, the Bengals (who could get wideout Marvin Jones back this week) have better talent among their pass-catchers, thanks largely to superstar A.J. Green. However, Bruschi believes the Pats' offensive woes go far beyond their ho-hum cadre of receivers:

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When you have an offense like the Patriots' that is challenged by a lack of talent at receiver, and your best weapons are inside threats (Julian Edelman from the slot and Rob Gronkowski from tight end), to best use them is off of play-action. If you have play-action, you have to be able to run the ball. When you look at some of the best teams in the league running the football, they have some of the best offensive lines. Right now, if you can't get that running game going and the offensive line is struggling, you're looking at an offense that will struggle the rest of the year.

"

Our experts apparently agree, with only AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown picking Brady to outgun the Red Rifle Sunday.

Blowout of the Week

Richard Lipski/Associated Press

Winner: Seattle Seahawks over Washington Redskins (9 votes)

Fate can be a fickle thing in the NFL. One week you're on top of the world, the next it's on top of you.

Just ask Kirk Cousins of the Washington Redskins.

After passing for over 400 yards against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3, Cousins was the toast of the nation's capital. Fans jumped on the Cousins bandwagon in droves, leaving footprints on Robert Griffin III's forehead as they went.

Then came Cousins' five turnovers in a blowout loss to the New York Giants.

Talk about awkward moments.

As Seattle Seahawks defensive tackle Kevin Williams told Stephen Cohen of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, the Giants also provided Seattle with a blueprint for making Cousins' life miserable:

"

I think New York did a good job. They got (Washington) behind the eight-ball and they had to throw it, and that took them out of their run game, so it kind of made them one-sided. That’s hopefully what we can get done: get a lead and then make it a passing game where we rush the passer.

I think with any team, if you’re controlling the run game and keep them from being balanced, that gives you have a higher percentage chance of getting the win. You know you’re just rushing the passer. You can get after the quarterback.

"

From the looks of this vote, our pundits don't see the Seahawks having much trouble doing just that.

Others receiving votes: New Orleans Saints over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3 votes), Green Bay Packers over Minnesota Vikings (1 vote), Cincinnati Bengals over New England Patriots (1 vote), Bye Week over Oakland Raiders (1 vote)

Biggest Mismatch

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

Winner: Philip Rivers vs. New York Jets secondary (5 votes)

At first glance, it might appear that the New York Jets are fairly stout against the pass. The team ranks 10th in the NFL in that regard, surrendering 228 yards a game.

However, upon deeper examination something becomes clear.

The Jets cornerbacks are decidedly ungood.

According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), the Jets don't have a cornerback ranked inside the top 40 so far this year. Each of the team's starters (Darrin Walls and Antonio Allen) are allowing opposing quarterbacks a passer rating of well over 90 when throwing in their direction.

None of that information bodes well heading into this week's matchup with the San Diego Chargers.

San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers bounced back in a big way in leading the Bolts to the playoffs a year ago, and the 32-year-old has picked up in 2014 right where he left off.

So much so, in fact, that Bucky Brooks of NFL.com named Rivers the league's MVP at the quarter mark:

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Credit Chargers head coach Mike McCoy and offensive coordinator Frank Reich for helping Rivers become a more efficient player in the pocket, a transformation that began when McCoy took over in 2013. In guiding San Diego to a 3-1 start this year, the Pro Bowler has completed more than 70 percent of his passes while compiling a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 9:1. He also leads the NFL with a 114.5 passer rating and averages an impressive 8.4 yards per attempt. Given his overall efficiency and effectiveness running one of the league's most dynamic offenses, Rivers deserves to be considered the current front-runner for the MVP award.

"

It's shaping up to be another long afternoon at the back end of Gang Green's defense.

Others receiving votes: Drew Brees vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary (3 votes), Pittsburgh Steelers offense vs. Jacksonville Jaguars defense (3 votes), Cincinnati Bengals defensive line vs. New England Patriots offensive line (3 votes), Seattle Seahawks defense vs. Kirk Cousins (1 vote)

Over/Under: Keenan Allen, 100 Receiving Yards

Donald Miralle/Getty Images

Winner: Over (12-3)

Given the information presented on the previous slide, Sunday's game would seem to be one that sets up very well for San Diego Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen.

However, it's not a given that the top rookie receiver of 2013 will have a big outing against the Jets' beleaguered secondary.

Allen is off to a slow start in his second NFL season. He has yet to find the end zone this year, and at his current pace he would come up short of the 1,000-yard mark at season's end.

With that said, though, Allen had by far his best game of the year in last week's win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, reeling in 10 passes for 135 yards.

With Ryan Mathews (knee) and Danny Woodhead (fractured fibula) ailing and Donald Brown completely ineffective last week despite a favorable matchup, it looks like the Chargers are going to be forced to rely heavily on Rivers and the passing game this year.

That should mean even more targets for Allen, whom our experts expect to exceed 100 yards for the second straight game in Week 5.

Sleeper QB Performance

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Winner: Kyle Orton, Buffalo Bills (3 votes) 

There have been a quite a few changes across the NFL recently at the quarterback position. Most have involved younger players such as Teddy Bridgewater of the Minnesota Vikings and Blake Bortles of the Jacksonville Jaguars getting their first chance to start in the NFL.

Kyle Orton of the Buffalo Bills, on the other hand, has had a few more than that.

On Sunday Orton will start for his fifth NFL team when the Bills face the Detroit Lions.

Squaring off against the league's top-ranked defense isn't the best way to start things off, but ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer told Tim Graham of The Buffalo News he thinks Orton can keep the Bills in the game.

In fact, Dilfer said starting Orton over second-year pro EJ Manuel could also keep the Bills in the thick of the AFC East race:

"

The Bills are actually a pretty good football team. With as bad as New England is, with as up and down as Miami is, with the Jets struggling through the same old Jets stuff, I would pick -- right now, if I had to pick a division winner -- with Kyle Orton I'd pick the Buffalo Bills, but with EJ Manuel I wouldn't.

"

A trio of our panelists are on board with that notion, and in a week where nine signal-callers received at least one vote that's enough to get Orton the nod as this week's surprise breakout under center.

Others receiving votes: Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings (2 votes), Mike Glennon, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2 votes), Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars (2 votes), Ryan Fitzpatrick, Houston Texans (2 votes), Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (1 vote), Austin Davis, St. Louis Rams (1 vote), Jake Locker/Charlie Whitehurst, Tennessee Titans (1 vote), Brian Hoyer, Cleveland Browns (1 vote)

Sleeper RB Performance

Jim Mone/Associated Press

Winner: Jerick McKinnon, Minnesota Vikings (6 votes) 

Teddy Bridgewater may have hogged all the headlines, but he wasn't the only rookie for the Minnesota Vikings who turned heads in last week's surprisingly impressive win over the Atlanta Falcons.

Running Back Jerick McKinnon had quite the day himself, racking up 135 yards on 18 carries. The performance drew kudos from head coach Mike Zimmer, according to Phil Ervin of Fox Sports North.

"He doesn't get too high and things don't bother him," Zimmer said. "He just needs to continue to stay with it, and he's got a chance to be a good back."

Of course, McKinnon still has plenty of room to improve, both as a receiver and especially as a pass protector.

There's also no denying that McKinnon is exponentially more explosive carrying the ball than the plodding Matt Asiata.

This week the Vikings travel to Lambeau Field to face a Green Bay Packers team allowing a staggering 176 yards a game on the ground, dead last in the NFL.

Against that Swiss cheese defense (Get it? Cheese? The Packers? HA! I kill me!), McKinnon is the runaway (Runaway, running back...I'm on FIRE here people!) choice of our voters as this week's breakout ball-carrier.

Others receiving votes: Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals (3 votes), Darrin Reaves, Carolina Panthers (3 votes), Matt Asiata, Minnesota Vikings (1 vote), Shane Vereen, New England Patriots (1 vote), Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans (1 vote)

Over/Under: LeSean McCoy, 100 Total Yards

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

Winner: Over (8-7)

After leading the National Football League with over 1,600 rushing yards in 2013, Philadelphia Eagles running back LeSean McCoy was the first overall pick in many fantasy football drafts this year.

At this point in 2014, those fantasy owners would probably like a mulligan.

So would McCoy, for that matter. After managing only 17 yards on 10 carries in last week's loss at San Francisco, a dejected McCoy told John Gonzalez of CSN Philadelphia, "I’m just not getting it done. I don’t know what to tell you.”

It's been a rough start to 2014 for McCoy and the Eagles' ground game. The 26-year-old has yet to gain 100 yards on the ground in a game this year, and McCoy hasn't hit 100 total yards since Week 2. His 2.7 yards a carry in 2014 is just over half of McCoy's average per tote last season.

On the surface, Week 5 sets up quite nicely for a rebound from "Shady." The Eagles are at home, facing a St. Louis Rams team that has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game in the NFL this season.

It says something about just how bad McCoy's slump has been, that given all that gravy it was still as close a vote as it can get here that McCoy would reach the century mark this week.

More Total Yards: Ahmad Bradshaw or Justin Forsett

AJ Mast/Associated Press

Winner: Ahmad Bradshaw (9-6) 

Both the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens are in the thick of their respective division races after the first month of the 2014 season.

And both teams have done so with something of a patchwork backfield.

With Ray Rice gone and Bernard Pierce firmly in the coaching staff's doghouse, the Ravens have turned to seven-year veteran Justin Forsett. Forsett hasn't been fantastic, but he has been solid—so solid, in fact, that Forsett leads the NFL at 5.8 yards per carry.

After Forsett picked up 66 yards on 14 carries last week against the Carolina Panthers, head coach John Harbaugh talked up Forsett's ability to pick up tough yardage while speaking with Ryan Mink of the Ravens' website:

"

I remember reading way back when, Woody Hayes’ book, when I was almost a kid, and he called it ‘a string of pearls.’ How many tacklers can you leave in your wake? That’s kind of a measurement of a great back. And Justin is playing that way.

"

Meanwhile, with Trent Richardson once again mastering the art of falling forward for the Indianapolis Colts, the team has been forced to give more touches to Ahmad Bradshaw.

Bradshaw has responded to the tune of 5.4 yards per carry, and while the 28-year-old missed practice Wednesday, Bradshaw is expected to be ready when these teams square off Sunday.

Head coach Chuck Pagano told Curt Cavin of The Indianapolis Star he's been very impressed with how Bradshaw has handled his change-of-pace role this year:

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Coming off the bench, so to speak, coming from the bullpen, if you will, he's obviously been very, very productive. I think both guys (Richardson and Bradshaw) are pushing each other. The competition is very good.

"

When the two square off Sunday, week 5's marquee matchup could hinge on which of these two tailbacks has the better day. It's a close call, but Bradshaw gets the nod from our panel.

Sleeper WR Performance

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Winner: Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (3 votes)

The candidates for this week's surprise breakout at wide receiver run the gamut from rookies to grizzled vets, lanky outside options to speedy slot stars. Thirteen different players got at least one vote.

However, only one receiver was chosen by multiple writers, and he hails from a team that could desperately use any good news it can get.

It's looking like yet another lost season for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but with rookie Blake Bortles now installed as the starting quarterback he will at least have some time to develop a rapport with his young receivers.

Where fellow rookie Allen Robinson is concerned, it appears Bortles is well on his way.

The youngster, who has 17 grabs for 192 yards in 2014, is emerging as the Jaguars' go-to receiver, racking up 23 targets over the past three games.

With the Jaguars heading to Pittsburgh to take on an injury-ravaged Steelers defense that's a shell of its formerly formidable self, the stage would appear set for Robinson to have his best game as a pro in Week 5.

A game that may well include Robinson's first NFL touchdown. 

Others receiving votes: Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts (1 vote), Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs (1 vote), Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots (1 vote), Riley Cooper, Philadelphia Eagles (1 vote), Markus Wheaton, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote), Victor Cruz, New York Giants (1 vote), Kendall Wright, Tennessee Titans (1 vote), Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals (1 vote), Rueben Randle, New York Giants (1 vote), Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints (1 vote), John Brown, Arizona Cardinals (1 vote), Louis Murphy, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 vote)

More Receiving Yards: Emmanuel Sanders or Michael Floyd

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

Winner: Emmanuel Sanders (12-3)

There's a torch being passed in the desert.

Larry Fitzgerald is no longer the top wide receiver for the Arizona Cardinals. That honor now belongs to third-year pro Michael Floyd, who led the team in receiving yards last year and is pacing the club again this season.

After topping the 100-yard mark in two of the last three games, Floyd drew the praise of Tyler Lockman of Fox Sports Arizona:

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This is becoming the expectation for Floyd, the Cardinals' No. 1 receiver whether or not he or the team will admit it. Last season, Floyd led the team in receiving and went over 100 yards in a game twice. This year, he has already eclipsed the century mark twice in three games. He has more receiving yards through three games (252) than he had through four-plus games last season.

"

However, in Week 5 at least, our experts expect Floyd to play second fiddle to a receiver who already plays second fiddle on his own team.

At least that's what Emmanuel Sanders was supposed to do in 2014: come to Denver and fill the complementary role of the departed Eric Decker.

Instead, Sanders has emerged as a favorite target of Peyton Manning. Sanders already has 25 grabs for 334 yards on the season. He ranks eighth in the league in yardage, despite having played in only three games.

Sanders downplayed his early success while speaking with Mike Klis of The Denver Post:

"

I came into the season with the objective of trying to seize every single moment, seize every single opportunity that God has granted to me. I have a great offensive coordinator in Adam Gase, a great quarterback in Peyton Manning. He's slingin' the ball around. I'm just working my butt off.

"

Sanders may not think his hot start is a big deal, but our voters disagree.

Sleeper TE Performance

Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Winner: Owen Daniels, Baltimore Ravens (5 votes) 

In some respects, it really isn't fair to call Owen Daniels of the Baltimore Ravens a "sleeper."

Granted, the 31-year-old has never been compared to players like Jimmy Graham of the New Orleans Saints or even Jason Witten of the Dallas Cowboys. However, when healthy, Daniels showed during his tenure with the Houston Texans that he's a more than capable tight end.

With Dennis Pitta out for the year, Daniels has been called upon to take on a much larger role in his first year with the Ravens. The two-time Pro Bowler told Aaron Wilson of The Baltimore Sun he isn't happy about the circumstances, but he's ready to answer the call:

"

It’s really sad and I feel terrible for Dennis. I thought we had a really good thing going, and it’s unfortunate. I’ve been a starter since my rookie year and have carried the load for a while. It’s not just going to come from me. It will come from everybody -- the wideouts and the whole tight end group.

"

It's been newcomers like wide receiver Steve Smith (who immolated his former team in Baltimore's Week 4 beatdown of the Carolina Panthers), Justin Forsett and Daniels who have carried most of the load for the Ravens offensively in 2014.

No reason for that to change this week. 

Others receiving votes: Luke Willson, Seattle Seahawks (4 votes), Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2 votes), Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals (1 vote), Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals (1 vote), Martellus Bennett, Chicago Bears (1 vote), John Carlson, Arizona Cardinals (1 vote)

Best Defensive Performance

Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Winner: J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans (5 votes)

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know. Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt has at least tied for the lead in this particular category every week this year.

It may not be overly creative, but at least it's consistent.

It also has a very good chance of being accurate.

Watt has been his usual dominant defensive self in 2014, but the fourth-year pro has pulled some new tricks out of his bag as well.

In Week 2, it was a touchdown catch against the Oakland Raiders. Last week against the Buffalo Bills, it was a 79-yard pick-six.

Frank Schwab of Yahoo Sports thinks that Watt deserves much more than just a weekly spot in this article:

"

The fact that defensive players are crossed off the ballot before the season starts doesn't bode well for Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt. But let's make no mistake: Watt is the best player in football right now, he might be the NFL's best defensive player since Reggie White was in his prime, and roughly a quarter into the season he is the NFL MVP.

"

Watt has more touchdowns than LeSean McCoy and Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte—combined. His 16 quarterback hits in 2014 ranks higher than nearly half the teams in the NFL.

Maybe we should just rename this category "Best Defensive Performance by a Non-Watt."

Either that, or J.J. and I will see you back here same time next week.

Others receiving votes: Geno Atkins, DT, Cincinnati Bengals (3 votes), DeAndre Levy, OLB, Detroit Lions (2 votes), Carlos Dunlap, DE, Cincinnati Bengals (2 votes), Patrick Peterson, CB, Arizona Cardinals (1 vote), Sheldon Richardson, DE, New York Jets (1 vote), Michael Brockers, DT, St. Louis Rams (1 vote)