Under-the-Radar College Basketball Teams Most Likely to Do Damage in 2014-15

Somewhere between popular dark horses (see: Utah) and lovable losers (see: DePaul) is a collection of 10 under-the-radar college basketball teams like Florida State and Miami that could legitimately sneak into the NCAA tournament discussion despite an offseason devoid of any national attention.

It's a delicate balance, but virtually every multi-bid conference has a couple of these teams.

By now, we've all more or less agreed on the top candidates to win each major conference, as well as the teams that already have no hope of finishing above .500 in conference play.

But what about those teams we tend to just gloss over, pigeonholing them as teams that will be slightly above average, but still a year away from reaching their potential?

That's right, we're talking about you, Indiana, Texas A&M and Washington. Everyone in their right mind is picking you to finish somewhere near the bottom third of your respective conference.

But guess what? Those are the same right minds who gave North Carolina State, Nebraska, George Washington and Providence no hope of sniffing the 2014 tournament.

Let's take a look at why you're among the 10 teams that might be able to prove the experts wrong, too.

The following slides are listed in alphabetical order by school. Statistics are courtesy of Sports-Reference.com and KenPom.com (subscription required).

Alabama Crimson Tide

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2013-14 wasn't exactly a banner year for the Crimson Tide.

With a 13-19 record, their .406 winning percentage was worse than any other season in the past four decades.

However, they had an impossibly difficult schedule—fourth-most difficult according to ESPN's RPI rankings.

The Crimson Tide also had the misfortune of facing opponents who made 74.7 percent of their free throws against them—the eighth-highest percentage in the country, according to KenPom.com.

Despite those numbers, they still ranked in the top 80 in adjusted defensive efficiency for the fifth straight season under Anthony Grant.

Did they underachieve last year, or had they been overachieving while averaging 23 wins per year over the previous three seasons? Somewhere in between, perhaps?

It could absolutely be a difficult season for Alabama. Trevor Releford did everything under the sun for this team, scoring nearly twice as many points as any other player on the roster. He graduated this summer, and the Crimson Tide also lost Nick Jacobs and Algie Key on the transfer market.

But speaking of college basketball's version of free agency, the players they've acquired by those means could be enough for a bounce-back year. 

Michael Kessens (Longwood, PF) and Ricky Tarrant (Tulane, G) are eligible after sitting out last season, and Christophe Varidel (Florida Gulf Coast / Chaminade, SG) is immediately eligible to play as a graduate transfer.

Anthony Grant is also getting three 4-star freshmen this year in the form of Riley Norris (SF), Justin Coleman (PG) and Devin Mitchell (SG).

Toss in the return of Levi Randolph, Retin Obasohan, Shannon Hale, Rodney Cooper and Jimmie Taylor, and Alabama has 11 legitimate options for regular playing time.

There might not be an SEC first- or second-teamer among the lot, but Alabama will be a much more versatile and balanced team than we saw last season.

Baylor Bears

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For the most part, there's a well-defined hierarchy in the Big 12.

Kansas and Texas are the favorites with Iowa State looming not far behind as a sexy sleeper.

Kansas State and Oklahoma probably won't win the conference, but they'll almost certainly be in the NCAA tournament.

Oklahoma State and West Virginia are headed for a rebuilding season, while TCU and Texas Tech continue their rebuilding decade.

But where, pray tell, does Baylor fit in that mix?

The Bears were a red-hot squad over the final six weeks of last season, destroying both Nebraska and Creighton to reach the Sweet 16.

However, they lost four of the top six minute-producers from that team, including leading scorers Cory Jefferson, Brady Heslip and Isaiah Austin.

Better yet, their top 2014 recruit (Kobe Eubanks) has been ruled ineligible for the season and is now suing his former high school, alleging that the school manipulated his grades and cost him his scholarship.

Rather than focusing on what Baylor has lost, though, it's worth noting what's still in stock in Waco.

Kenny Chery (16.0 points and 6.5 assists per 40 minutes) was one of the more underrated point guards in the country after transferring in from JUCO.

The Bears are looking to capture lightning in a bottle again with highly rated JUCO transfers Lester Medford and Deng Deng.

Rico Gathers, Royce O'Neale and Taurean Prince combined to average 19.7 points and 14.6 rebounds last year in just under 60 minutes per game. Along with Chery, those three forwards will provide Baylor with a ton of veteran leadership.

It might be just enough to keep the Bears from missing the Big Dance.

Creighton Bluejays

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Having projected Creighton to finish in eighth place in the Big East a few months ago, I am at or near the top of the list of people expecting a down year for the Bluejays.

However, this is a program that has participated in 10 of the last 16 NCAA tournaments and made the transition from Missouri Valley to Big East look like a piece of cake.

Moving on without Doug McDermott, Ethan Wragge, Grant Gibbs and Jahenns Manigat won't be easy, but it certainly wouldn't be the most shocking thing in the world if the Bluejays hung around well enough to make the 2015 NCAA tournament.

Despite losing all of those seniors and three-point assassins, Greg McDermott's squad will still have plenty of veteran leadership.

Assuming a lineup of Will Artino, Devin Brooks, Austin Chatman, Avery Dingman and Cal transfer Ricky Kreklow, the Bluejays might have the oldest starting five in the country—four seniors and a graduate senior.

They'll also have Isaiah Zierden, Zach Hanson and Ronnie Harrell as young guns coming off the bench to bolster the rotation.

Creighton won't be earning another No. 3 seed this season. Fighting to stay on the right side of the bubble might be as good as it gets. But the Bluejays should be talented enough to avoid getting blown out on a nightly basis in the Big East.

Florida State Seminoles

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The ACC has four teams (Duke, North Carolina, Louisville and Virginia) who could open the season ranked in the AP's Top 10 and a fifth (Syracuse) that may sneak onto the back end of the Top 25.

Who is the conference's best team after that, though?

It's probably North Carolina State, Notre Dame or Pittsburgh, but why not Florida State?

In Ian Miller and Okaro White, the Seminoles lost two of their three most critical players from last year's team. Yet, they are loaded with players who really blossomed as sophomores in 2013-14.

Aaron Thomas led the team in scoring. Devon Bookert performed admirably on both ends of the court as the starting point guard, leading the team in assists and three-point percentage and playing above-average on-ball defense without committing fouls.

Michael Ojo (7'1") and Boris Bojanovsky (7'3") were giants in the paint who could really dominate this year while continuing to polish their games.

All four of those players will be back for at least one more season, and perhaps Jarquez Smith will have the sort of second-season spike that the others experienced last year.

Most noteworthy, however, might be the guard playing his first season at Florida State after missing last year due to academic ineligibility. Xavier Rathan-Mayes was Leonard Hamilton's highest-rated recruit since 2010, but he's just now getting a chance to show what he can do.

A three-headed backcourt of Bookert, Thomas and Rathan-Mayes combined with a plethora of talented big men could be enough to get Florida State back to the NCAA tournament after a two-year hiatus.

Indiana Hoosiers

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With eight Final Fours and five national championships in their storied history, the Indiana Hoosiers can never truly be under the radar.

However, after a disappointing 17-15 team from which they lost five transfers, four seniors and one freshman who bolted for the NBA, not many rational people are expecting much from them.

Earlier this summer, I projected them to finish ninth in the Big Ten. Chris Dortch of Blue Ribbon had them slotted in the same spot last week. Brent Yarina of Big Ten Network picked them to come in 10th back in April.

Long story short, we expect them to be competitive, but we don't expect them to dance.

That doesn't mean they can't.

Led by Yogi Ferrell and James Blackmon Jr., the Hoosiers should have one of the better backcourts in the conference. Unfortunately, a frontcourt made up of Troy Williams, Devin Davis and a bunch of 2- and 3-star freshmen could get eaten alive.

Thing is, though, Michigan is in just about the exact same boat, and a lot of folks seem to expect the Wolverines to open the season ranked in the Top 25.

Is the gap between John Beilein and Tom Crean really so wide that Beilein can lead a four-guard lineup to the Sweet 16 but Crean can't even get an undersized team into the tournament?

(Looking forward to both Michigan and Indiana fans responding with a resounding "Yes!" in the comments.)

Miami Hurricanes

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As was our argument for Florida State, why couldn't Miami be the sixth-best team in the ACC?

Last season was a struggle and a half for the Hurricanes, but should we have expected anything different after they lost their five leading scorers from the 2012-13 team that nearly earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament?

Then again, this year could be just as difficult.

With news breaking last month that Davon Reed could miss the entire season after undergoing surgery on his left leg, it looks like Manu Lecomte will be the only returning player out of Miami's seven leading scorers from last season.

Good thing the Hurricanes are adding pretty much an entire roster of players between transfers, freshmen and redshirts.

Deandre Burnett was their top recruit last season, but he redshirted after suffering a wrist injury in early November.

Burnett will make his Miami debut this year along with D-I transfers Angel Rodriguez (Kansas State) and Sheldon McClellan (Texas), JUCO transfer Ivan Cruz Uceda (eligible in January) and 2014 recruits Ja'Quan Newton, James Palmer and Omar Sherman.

Jim Larranaga has had a ton of roster turnover in the past two seasons, but this year's batch should work out better than the last.

And with a 2013-14 record of 17-16, a KenPom rank of 69 and BPI rank of 80, it's not like the Hurricanes were even that far from dancing last year. Had they gone 4-1 in overtime games instead of 1-4, they would have been right there on the bubble.

Northern Iowa Panthers

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We pretty much had to include at least one mid-major team, and Northern Iowa best fits the bill.

Obviously, Wichita State is the favorite to win the Missouri Valley, but where is there a rule stating that the MVC can send only one team to the tournament?

Heck, the rule used to be that at least two teams from the Valley go dancing. From 1999-2007, MVC received a total of 22 bids, with 2006 producing four berths and a pair of Sweet 16 appearances. At least two MVC teams have been invited to 14 of the last 21 NCAA tournaments.

So, Arch Madness may have been Wichita State or bust last year, but look for the Panthers of Northern Iowa to join the Shockers this March.

All six of their leading scorers are back for another year, foremost among them Seth Tuttle.

In his three seasons at Northern Iowa, Tuttle has averaged 18.6 points and 10.4 rebounds per 40 minutes. He has been worth .223 win shares per 40 minutes. Doug McDermott finished his four-year career with a ratio of .235.

I'm not saying. I'm just saying.

I like Tuttle's chances of leading the Panthers to the tournament for the first time since Ali Farokhmanesh stomped all over the hearts of the Kansas Jayhawks in 2010.

Temple Owls

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In their final 30 years in the A-10, the Temple Owls had one losing season and went to the NCAA tournament 23 times.

In their first season in the AAC, they went 9-22. It was just the second time since 1960 that they won fewer than 33 percent of their games played.

The point being that the 2013-14 season was more than a bit of an anomaly in what has otherwise been quite a few impressive decades.

They simply weren't ready for the rigors of a major conference schedule—a problem that became even more amplified when their already-short rotation lost Daniel Dingle just 10 games into the year.

But they took their lumps and started to show considerable improvement over the final few weeks of the season.

Will Cummings will be one of the highest scorers in the AAC again this year, and Quenton DeCosey shouldn't be far behind him.

Losing both Anthony Lee and Dalton Pepper will be tough, but adding Jaylen Bond (Texas), Jesse Morgan (Massachusetts) and Obi Enechionyia (freshman) while getting a healthy Dingle back should do a lot to soften the blow.

Having Louisville leave the conference while adding three Conference USA squads won't hurt, either.

Texas A&M Aggies

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Whether or not Texas A&M actually belongs on this list will be up to the people who make the rulings on which transfers are eligible to play immediately.

The Aggies lost a lot of players via transfer. Leading scorer Jamal Jones skipped town and didn't have very good things to say about his former coaches.

J-Mychal Reese was dismissed from the team after six games and has since transferred to North Texas. Shawn Smith decided to transfer to JUCO after just one year under Billy Kennedy.

But what they stand to gain is even more noteworthy.

Danuel House averaged 19.1 points and 7.5 rebounds per 40 minutes last year as a sophomore at Houston, but he and TaShawn Thomas left the school and filed a hardship waiver after some coaching changes they weren't too happy about.

Jalen Jones averaged 17.3 points and 9.5 rebounds per 40 minutes two years ago at SMU, leading the team in both categories. But he stunningly announced his intention to transfer away from the Mustangs just hours into the 2013-14 season and didn't play in a single game last year.

Still no word on whether either of those players will be eligible to suit up in six weeks—which is pretty ludicrous, considering Jalen Jones made his decision nine months ago and House signed on with A&M four months ago.

If neither Jalen Jones nor House is eligible to play this year, Texas A&M will be relatively competitive, but it might be a stretch to expect the Aggies to finish in the top half of the SEC standings.

If both are allowed to play immediately, however, the Aggies could very well finish in third place in the SEC.

In addition to those two transfers, they return Kourtney Roberson, Alex Caruso, Davonte Fitzgerald, Jordan Green and Antwan Space—all of whom averaged between 6.4-9.8 PPG last season. They also add a 4-star recruit in Alex Robinson.

Caruso, in particular, was one of the more underappreciated players in the nation last year. The sophomore point guard averaged 12.1 points, 6.7 assists and 2.7 steals per 40 minutes. He led the SEC in both assist percentage and steal percentage.

Now imagine what kind of numbers he could put up with House and Jalen Jones in the mix.

Washington Huskies

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There are plenty of reasons to doubt the Huskies.

First and foremost, C.J. Wilcox is gone. Wilcox (1,880 points) didn't quite reach Chris Welp (2,073 points) at the top of Washington's list of all-time leading scorers, but he was far and away the most important player for the Huskies over the last two seasons.

The Huskies also lost Perris Blackwell to graduation and Desmond Simmons to Saint Mary's, leaving them with no established presence in the post—unless you count Shawn Kemp Jr., who has merely established over the past three seasons that he is not a clone of his father.

Furthermore, Washington has gradually gotten worse over the past six seasons, missing the last three NCAA tournaments. In 2013-14, the Huskies ranked outside the KenPom Top 80 for the first time in more than a decade.

But it's not all doom and gloom for the Huskies.

In what should be a relatively down year for every Pac-12 team other than Arizona and Utah, Washington could have one of the best backcourts in the conference.

With Nigel Williams-Goss, Andrew Andrews, Mike Anderson, Darin Johnson and JUCO transfer Quevyn Winters in the mix, Washington can go to war with a lot of teams.

The biggest X-factor, however, will be Robert Upshaw.

For most of the offseason, Lorenzo Romar was beyond noncommittal on whether the 6'11" Fresno State transfer would be part of the team this season, but he recently told Percy Allen of The Seattle Times:

"Right now he's on our team and we’re looking forward to him helping us. ... He hasn’t played organized basketball in college on a consistent basis in three years. So in fairness to him, it may take him a little while to get going. But the talent is there."

If he is as capable as many want to believe, Upshaw could be the difference in the paint that propels Washington into the 2015 NCAA tournament.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.