NFL Predictions Week 5: Upset Picks and Projections

Bettors who enjoy risky high-upside upset picks have made some serious coin through four weeks of the NFL season.

Seemingly every week, teams such as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the St. Louis Rams and the Tennessee Titans are somehow squeaking out victories. The unpredictable nature of the league has crafted a downright profitable environment that has Las Vegas creating some rather modest spreads each week.

Of course, bettors should not hit this week's lineup and throw down cash on just any underdogs. Success in this venture takes calculated moves and copious amounts of research.

Let's help in that endeavor by breaking down the top upset picks of the week after a look at the full slate.

NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Minnesota at Green Bay (Thurs., Oct. 2)	GB (-10)	Green Bay	Teddy Bridgewater or not, Green Bay is firing on all cylinders and won't be stopped at home.
Chicago at Carolina	CAR (-3)	Carolina	Chicago's defense is downright not talented enough to capitalize on a hobbled Carolina backfield.
Cleveland at Tennessee	TEN (-2.5)	Cleveland	See analysis below.
St. Louis at Philadelphia	PHI (-7)	Philadelphia	Chip Kelly's offense will not find it difficult to rediscover balance and productivity against the leaky St. Louis defense.
Atlanta at NY Giants	NYG (-4)	NY Giants	Eli Manning and Co. have finally wrapped their brains around the new, efficient offense. Atlanta's defense line and offensive line are a mess.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans	NO (-11)	Tampa Bay	See analysis below.
Houston at Dallas	DAL (-4.5)	Dallas	Dallas limps into this one on the defensive side of the ball, but it won't matter much against the Houston offense.
Buffalo at Detroit	DET (-7.5)	Detroit	Detroit is arguably the best team in the league thanks to a strong run defense and a potent offense.
Baltimore at Indianapolis	IND (-3)	Baltimore	Indianapolis has yet to beat a credible opponent, while Baltimore has won three straight and looks great offensively.
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville	PIT (-7)	Pittsburgh	Blake Bortles in his first home NFL start will cause issues, but the Pittsburgh attack is too talented to lose.
Arizona at Denver	DEN (-7)	Denver	Unless Carson Palmer comes back and is in great form, Peyton Manning will eventually overtake a strong defense.
Kansas City at San Francisco	SF (-7)	San Francisco	San Francisco will be able to take advantage of a coaching staff that struggles to implement its best players.
NY Jets at San Diego	SD (-7)	San Diego	Philip Rivers is the hottest player in the league at the moment and will have no issues posting more points than New York's quarterbacks.
Cincinnati at New England	NE (-2.5)	Cincinnati	See analysis below.
Seattle at Washington (Mon., Oct. 6)	SEA (-7.5)	Seattle	Kirk Cousins was exposed last week, the beginning of a trend that only gets worse upon a visit from Seattle.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 10 p.m. ET, Sept. 30.

Top Upset Picks

Cleveland at Tennessee (-2.5)

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

For one reason or another, the powers in charge of odds have bestowed an absolute gem upon bettors.

Maybe it is the stigma surrounding Cleveland sports, but the Titans are in a world of hurt right now that makes even the last decade of Browns football look good.

Losers of three straight, the Titans turned in their worst performance to date last week in a 41-17 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. Jake Locker was out with a wrist injury, and so far, the talk about his status for Week 5 is none too encouraging.

John Glennon of The Tennessean has the scoop:

Without Locker under center, Charlie Whitehurst and rookie Zach Mettenberger combined for a 50 percent completion rate and 176 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions.

While Tennessee has lost three games by a minimum of 16 points apiece, the Browns beat the New Orleans Saints and have a pair of losses to divisional rivals (the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers) by a combined total of five points.

Brian Hoyer has been good enough under center, but the real money in Cleveland is made on the ground thanks to a surprise duo:

NAME	ATT	YDS	AVG	TD
Terrance West	47	204	4.3	2
Isaiah Crowell	27	141	5.2	3

Tennessee touts the 10th-worst run defense in the league at the moment, allowing 127 yards per game on the ground. Cleveland will have no issues pounding the rock coming off a week of rest.

Prediction: Browns 27, Titans 14

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-11)

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Perhaps the week's strangest line is also the most exploitable.

The Saints are unbeatable at home (that is only a slight exaggeration), but all Tampa Bay has to do is keep this one within two scores.

Simple enough, really.

Coach Lovie Smith committed a gross error this past offseason when he elected to not hold a quarterback competition between veteran Josh McCown and second-year player Mike Glennon. During the former's ineffective run, Tampa Bay was bad but only lost by six and two points before a strange 56-14 blowout in Atlanta that has the looks of an anomaly.

Last week in Pittsburgh (against a team that had just crushed Carolina 37-19), Glennon exploded onto the scene with 302 yards and two scores to one pick. He also led the game-winning drive in the waning moments.

"I was out last year, so it's been a long time since I've tasted winning a game," Smith said per The Associated Press, via ESPN.com. "For our football team, we needed this."

The floundering 1-3 Saints just got beat 38-17 in Dallas, while the lone mark in the win column was a 20-9 home victory over the Minnesota Vikings. Drew Brees and his offense post plenty of gaudy statistics, but the defense gives up the fourth-most passing yards per game and is miserable against the rush.

New Orleans has forced all of five sacks this season, continually blows coverages and downright misses tackles at times. It would be a stretch to suggest Glennon and Co. can pull off the upset outright, but the spread seems a sure thing given the current trajectory of both teams.

Prediction: Saints 27, Buccaneers 23

Cincinnati at New England (-2.5)

Al Behrman/Associated Press

Sunday Night Football is one to invest some cash in this week. Do it quickly, before the line moves too drastically.

New England was absolutely demolished Monday in Kansas City, losing 41-14. Tom Brady has clearly taken a step backward despite a strong crop of weapons around him, and the defense, while a force against the pass, simply cannot stop the rush.

Bill Belichick's defense allowed Knile Davis to rush 16 times for 107 yards, while starter Jamaal Charles took 18 carries for 92 yards and a score.

It just so happens that running the ball is the Cincinnati Bengals' strength thanks to the tandem of Giovani Bernard and rookie Jeremy Hill. The Bengals average a stellar 121.7 yards on the ground per game.

As radio broadcaster Dan Hoard notes, Andy Dalton and the aerial attack (which ranks No. 11 overall) are doing quite well too:

Don't forget that the Bengals figure to finally get back No. 2 wideout Marvin Jones, who has missed the entire season so far, as well as elite linebacker Vontaze Burfict.

Sports Illustrated's Aaron Nagler puts it best:

Coming off a bye against a reeling team on a short week, this one has the look of a blowout in the opposite direction.

Prediction: Bengals 34, Patriots 20

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).