Arizona Cardinals vs. Denver Broncos: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

After the Denver Broncos saw their unbeaten season come to an end in Week 3, they will now look to hand the Arizona Cardinals their first loss when they host them on Sunday. Each team was off last week, and both have favorable trends off a bye, with the Broncos 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 home games and the Cardinals 6-2 versus the line in their past eight on the road under that scenario.

Point spread: Broncos opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 48.5 (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 32.9-32.4 Cardinals

Why the Cardinals can cover the spread

Arizona is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a road underdog and has really thrived under second-year head coach Bruce Arians with a 13-6 mark against the number. The Cardinals also have an impressive road win under their belts already this season, beating the New York Giants 25-14 in Week 2 as two-point underdogs.

The big question for the team heading into the bye was who would start at quarterback at Denver between opening-week starter Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton, who replaced him in the last two games due to a shoulder injury. Palmer appears ready to go, but Stanton has proved he can step in and lead the offense if necessary.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Besides their dominant ATS record at home after a bye week, the Broncos have also covered the spread in the last five meetings with the Cardinals. And despite losing the Super Bowl rematch with the Seattle Seahawks on the road, 26-20, in overtime before the bye, Denver seems focused on getting back to the big game and winning as many games as possible to earn home-field advantage in the playoffs again this season.

The Broncos won their first two games by seven points apiece at home, failing to cover the spread both times. This seems like the perfect opportunity for them to go out and prove they are just as good as last year against a quality opponent in Arizona.

Smart Pick

Denver’s comeback at Seattle showed this team has a lot of heart and could actually be better this year even if last season’s gaudy offensive numbers are not duplicated. The Broncos are a team of veteran players who know how to pace themselves and win big when necessary.

This is one of those spots against an undefeated team that is a bit overrated and could either have a rusty Palmer back in the lineup or a backup who has never played against a team of Denver’s calibre. The Broncos may be 0-3 ATS so far this season, but they did not fail to cover four in a row all of last year. In fact, when they did not cover three straight last year, they routed Washington 45-21 as 11-point home favorites in the next game. Look for Denver to win again here in a rout.

Trends

• Arizona is 6-1 straight up in its last seven games.
• Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last six games at home.

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