Week 5 Fantasy Football Projections: Stat Predictions for Top 100 Players

Week 4 in the NFL featured six teams on bye, but the fantasy world didn't skip a beat.

OK, so those who were hating life with Demaryius Thomas, Giovani Bernard and Michael Floyd sitting on their bench probably didn't feel that way, but thanks to newly minted fantasy legends Matt Asiata, Larry Donnell and Eddie Royal—as well as the usual crop of stars like Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown and DeMarco Murray—scores remained extremely high. I know that's true because I've looked at those hilariously large numbers next to my opponents' team names.

There may not be a need for the Asiatas and Donnells of the world with only Oakland and Miami off during Week 5, but with so many Week 4 breakouts, there will be plenty of difficult decisions to make.

That said, let's take a glance at an early outlook—remember, injury statuses could very easily change these projections—for the top 100 individual players.

Thursday, Oct. 2	Time (ET)
Sunday, Oct. 5	Time (ET)
Monday, Oct. 6	Time (ET)
Minnesota at Green Bay	8:25 p.m.
Chicago at Carolina	1 p.m.
Cleveland at Tennessee	1 p.m.
St. Louis at Philadelphia	1 p.m.
Atlanta at NY Giants	1 p.m.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans	1 p.m.
Houston at Dallas	1 p.m.
Buffalo at Detroit	1 p.m.
Baltimore at Indianapolis	1 p.m.
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville	1 p.m.
Arizona at Denver	4:05 p.m.
Kansas City at San Francisco	4:25 p.m.
NY Jets at San Diego	4:25 p.m.
Cincinnati at New England	8:30 p.m.
Seattle at Washington	8:30 p.m.

Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Peyton Manning, DEN	280 PAS, 2 TD, 1 INT
2	Aaron Rodgers, GB	310 PAS, 2 TD
3	Drew Brees, NO	330 PAS, 4 TD
4	Matt Ryan, ATL	270 PAS, 2 TD, 1 INT
5	Andrew Luck, IND	310 PAS, 3 TD, 1 INT
6	Philip Rivers, SD	290 PAS, 2 TD
7	Matthew Stafford, DET	330 PAS, 2 TD, 1 INT
8	Nick Foles, PHI	280 PAS, 2 TD, 1 INT
9	Cam Newton, CAR	260 PAS, 20 RUS, 2 TD
10	Tony Romo, DAL	230 PAS, 2 TD, 1 INT
11	Russell Wilson, SEA	240 PAS, 40 RUS, 3 TD
12	Jay Cutler, CHI	260 PAS, 2 TD, 2 INT
13	Eli Manning, NYG	270 PAS, 2 TD
14	Tom Brady, NE	200 PAS, 1 TD, 1 INT
15	Colin Kaepernick, SF	210 PAS, 50 RUS, 2 TD, 1 INT
16	Joe Flacco, BAL	280 PAS, 2 TD, 1 INT
17	Andy Dalton, CIN	230 PAS, 1 TD
18	Teddy Bridgewater, MIN	220 PAS, 1 TD, 2 INT
19	Ben Roethlisberger, PIT	240 PAS, 2 TD, 1 INT
20	Carson Palmer, ARI	290 PAS, 2 TD, 1 INT

Sleeper: Austin Davis/Shaun Hill, St. Louis Rams

Scott Kane/Associated Press

The Philadelphia Eagles are actually 14th in the NFL in yards per pass allowed (7.0) and sixth in completion percentage allowed (58.7). That hardly paints a picture of a defense that generally gets described as having more holes than a colander.

However, Chip Kelly's lightning-fast offense—Week 4 against the Niners notwithstanding—typically forces the defense on the field for ridiculous amounts of time. Through four weeks, opposing teams have held 59.4 percent of possession and have run a silly 73.75 plays per game. So while Philly has been pretty defensively efficient, the volume has turned it into a generous fantasy defense.

Here's a look at how each opposing QB has fared thus far:

Week	Quarterback	Completion %	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Fantasy Points
1	Chad Henne	55.8	266	2	0	17.44
2	Andrew Luck	58.8	172	3	1	18.88
3	Kirk Cousins	62.5	427	3	1	27.58
4	Colin Kaepernick	56.7	218	2	1	20.52

Austin Davis is a far more attractive role of the dice here. Entering the season buried on the depth chart, the other Southern Miss quarterback product has completed an NFL-best 72.3 percent of his throws to go with three touchdowns. As 94.1 FM Denver's Benjamin Allbright noted, they haven't just been dink-and-dunk throws, either:

Unfortunately for the Davis fan club, Jeff Fisher has said he would turn the ball back to less exciting veteran Shaun Hill once healthy, which could be in Week 5. The veteran has held his own (41-to-24 career TD-to-INT ratio), though, and no matter who's under center, he should exceed expectations against the Eagles.

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Projections
1	DeMarco Murray, DAL	150 RUS, 15 REC 1 TD
2	Le'Veon Bell, PIT	90 RUS, 50 REC, 2 TD
3	Marshawn Lynch, SEA	75 RUS, 20 REC
4	Giovani Bernard, CIN	60 RUS, 60 REC, 1 TD
5	LeSean McCoy, PHI	50 RUS, 25 REC
6	Matt Forte, CHI	90 RUS, 40 REC
7	Alfred Morris, WAS	40 RUS, 1 TD
8	Jamaal Charles, KC	70 RUS, 40 REC, 2 TD
9	Zac Stacy, STL	80 RUS, 1 TD
10	Arian Foster, HOU	75 RUS, 20 REC
11	Andre Ellington, ARI	50 RUS, 70 REC, 1 TD
12	Rashad Jennings, NYG	120 RUS, 1 TD
13	Frank Gore, SF	70 RUS, 20 REC
14	Montee Ball, DEN	45 RUS, 1 TD
15	Eddie Lacy, GB	60 RUS, 20 REC
16	Stevan Ridley, NE	35 RUS
17	Reggie Bush, DET	30 RUS, 60 REC, 1 TD
18	Donald Brown, SD	75 RUS, 30 REC
19	Justin Forsett, BAL	50 RUS, 50 REC, 1 TD
20	Matt Asiata, MIN	60 RUS, 30 REC
21	C.J. Spiller, BUF	55 RUS, 25 REC
22	Khiry Robinson, NO	105 RUS, 1 TD
23	Chris Ivory, NYJ	110 RUS, 1 TD
24	Doug Martin, TB	60 RUS, 30 REC
25	Ben Tate, CLE	75 RUS, 1 TD
26	Trent Richardson, IND	50 RUS, 30 REC
27	Steven Jackson, ATL	45 RUS
28	Ahmad Bradshaw, IND	40 RUS, 20 REC, 1 TD
29	Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL	75 RUS
30	Fred Jackson, BUF	30 RUS, 60 REC

Sleeper: Chris Ivory, New York Jets

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Chris Johnson showed signs of life with a 35-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter Sunday, but Chris Ivory has been the clear-cut better player for the majority of the season.

And it looks like Rex Ryan is starting to realize that fact. Here's a look at how each running back's touches have progressed throughout the first month of the season:

Player	W1 Touches (Yards Per Touch)	W2 Touches (YPT)	W3 Touches (YPT)	W4Touches (YPT)
Chris Ivory	10 (10.2)	14 (3.4)	14 (6.9)	19 (5.3)
Chris Johnson	18 (5.1)	13 (1.6)	10 (3.4)	8 (7.6)

Ivory is a bruising back who hits holes like he's mad at them, and much like fellow dreadlocked-beast Marshawn Lynch, he seems to thrive off contact.

"I'm just glad I'm not tackling him or my kid's not out there tackling him," head coach Rex Ryan said, via the New York Daily News' Seth Walder. "Those are guys that you love to have. Any guy that you don't want your kid to play against, that's the one you take."

Ivory steamrolled the Detroit Lions, owners of one of the best D-lines in the league, for 84 rushing yards on 17 carries Sunday, and his workload should continue to stay in the 18-to-20 touch range.

Against a Chargers defense allowing a healthy 4.5 yards per carry, he's a rock-solid—both literally and figuratively—RB2.

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Antonio Brown, PIT	95 REC
2	Jordy Nelson, GB	120 REC, 1 TD
3	Calvin Johnson, DET	80 REC
4	Julio Jones, ATL	95 REC, 1 TD
5	A.J. Green, CIN	130 REC, 1 TD
6	Dez Bryant, DAL	80 REC
7	Demaryius Thomas, DEN	80 REC, 1 TD
8	Jeremy Maclin, PHI	70 REC, 1 TD
9	Steve Smith, BAL	90 REC
10	Alshon Jeffery, CHI	65 REC, 1 TD
11	Randall Cobb, GB	65 REC
12	Emmanuel Sanders, DEN	60 REC
13	Andre Johnson, HOU	75 REC
14	Brandon Marshall, CHI	50 REC
15	Victor Cruz, NYG	90 REC
16	Reggie Wayne, IND	75 REC, 1 TD
17	Julian Edelman, NE	80 REC
18	Kelvin Benjamin, CAR	95 REC, 1 TD
19	Michael Floyd, ARI	110 REC
20	Pierre Garcon, WAS	55 REC
21	Percy Harvin, SEA	65 REC, 30 RUS, 1 TD
22	Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN	50 REC, 15 RUS
23	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI	40 REC, 1 TD
24	Keenan Allen, SD	90 REC
25	T.Y. Hilton, IND	110 REC, 1 TD
26	DeAndre Hopkins, HOU	70 REC, 1 TD
27	Michael Crabtree, SF	80 REC, 1 TD
28	Wes Welker, DEN	55 REC
29	Vincent Jackson, TB	50 REC, 1 TD
30	Roddy White, ATL	75 REC, 1 TD
31	Brian Quick, STL	80 REC
32	Golden Tate, DET	90 REC, 1 TD
33	Terrance Williams, DAL	65 REC
34	Marques Colston, NO	60 REC, 1 TD
35	Brandin Cooks, NO	75 REC, 1 TD
36	Sammy Watkins, BUF	60 REC
37	Andrew Hawkins, CLE	85 REC
38	DeSean Jackson, WAS	45 REC
39	Kendall Wright, TEN	50 REC
40	Rueben Randle, NYG	60 REC, 2 TD

Sleeper: Rueben Randle, New York Giants

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Through four games, Rueben Randle, a fairly popular fantasy sleeper in the offseason, has 19 catches for 156 yards and a touchdown. In standard-scoring leagues, he ranks 55th among wide receivers, sandwiched in between studs Brian Hartline and Andre Roberts.

Warning: This is your last chance to buy low.

Not only has he been targeted 10 times in the last two games, but a whopping nine of those looks have come in the red zone, and he nearly scored twice against Washington. With Eli Manning beginning to look far more comfortable in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo's new system, and Randle's role continuing to expand, it's only a matter of time before he has his own Donnell-esque breakout performance.

There's hardly a better time for that than against the Atlanta Falcons, who just gave up 558 yards of total offense to the Minnesota Vikings and have been torched on the road (11.5 yards per pass allowed) by Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton and Mohamed Sanu.

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Jimmy Graham, NO	105 REC, 1 TD
2	Julius Thomas, DEN	40 REC, 1 TD
3	Rob Gronkowski, NE	45 REC
4	Delanie Walker, TEN	80 REC
5	Martellus Bennett, CHI	55 REC, 1 TD
6	Vernon Davis, SF	40 REC, 1 TD
7	Greg Olsen, CAR	80 REC, 1 TD
8	Jordan Cameron, CLE	55 REC
9	Larry Donnell, NYG	60 REC
10	Jason Witten, DAL	40 REC

Sleeper: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

It's tough to ease a talented player back slowly from injury when you're coming off an embarrassing 42-point loss. In desperate need of any kind of spark, the Bucs played talented rookie Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who missed the previous two weeks with a foot injury, on every offensive snap, per Rotoworld's Adam Levitan:

Turning seven targets into just three catches for 44 yards is a little underwhelming, but Seferian-Jenkins is going to get a slew of opportunities moving forward.

With Mike Evans out for at least two weeks, per Fox Sports' Mike Garafolo, ASJ immediately becomes Mike Glennon's second or third target behind Vincent Jackson, depending on how you view Louis Murphy. Moreover, as a 6'5", 262-pound athletic specimen who specialized as a physical force and rebounder while playing basketball at Washington, he's a legitimate threat in the end zone.

FootballGuys.com's Chad Parsons put it simply:

Seferian-Jenkins is a high-upside TE2 against the Saints, who had trouble containing Jason Witten this week.