NFL Draft 2015: Updated Prospect Radar, Post-Week 4
The first month of the college football season is already in the books; teams are starting to get into the heart of their conference schedules and NFL draft prospects, such as Missouri defensive end Shane Ray and UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley, are starting to build up impressive portfolios of tape for scouts to fawn over.
This past weekend didn’t feature as many marquee matchups of teams as next weekend and most weekends to follow in the next two-plus months, but there were plenty of potential top picks for the 2015 draft class on display.
Some of those prospects made strong statements in their favor as to why NFL teams should be interested in them, but there were also some who left some significant questions or concerns on the table.
Stock Up: Shane Ray, DE, Missouri, Jr.
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This Week: Eight total tackles, two sacks, one quarterback hit
Opponent: South Carolina
A backup in the rotation behind first-team All-SEC defensive ends Kony Ealy and Michael Sam in 2013, Missouri’s Shane Ray has emerged early this season to look as though he might be even better than those two pass-rushers were last year.
The quick defensive lineman showed glimpses of his potential when he got chances to play last season, but the redshirt junior has become a star in his redshirt junior year. Through five games, Ray leads all players in the Football Bowl Subdivision with eight sacks and 11.5 total tackles for loss.
Combining a fast first step off the line of scrimmage with active hands and natural all-around movement skills, Ray can close in a hurry in pursuit. He is an evidently high-motor player who tackles soundly.
Ray lines up as a defensive end in base downs but also kicks inside in some pass-rushing situations to play defensive tackle, despite being listed at only 245 pounds by Missouri’s website.
Lining up in this capacity often against South Carolina in Missouri’s upset win Saturday, Ray was able to exploit the weak link on the Gamecocks 'offensive line—right guard Will Sport, playing in place of injured starter Cody Waldrop—and beat him for multiple pressures and stops, including one of his sacks.
Ray also showed Saturday how he can be a difference-maker on the edge. He beat left tackle Corey Robinson for the second of his two sacks and made plays from both ends of the line in both bringing pressure and flowing to the ball as a run defender.
The biggest concern scouts might have with Ray is how well he can hold up as a point-of-attack run defender at the line of scrimmage. While he is good at using his athleticism to pursue runs, Robinson was able to take advantage of Ray’s limited size and strength to drive him away from some running plays on Saturday.
Nonetheless, Ray had a highly disruptive game on Saturday and has made it clear all season that he is a player opposing offenses must account for at all times. His ability to rush the passer and chase down plays makes him a likely early-round selection if he declares for the 2015 draft.
Current Draft Projection: Round 2
Stock Up: Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA, Jr.
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This Week: 18-of-23 passing for 355 yards, four touchdowns; eight rushes for 72 yards, one touchdown
Opponent: Arizona State
If Brett Hundley is going to make a run at being the top quarterback selected in the 2015 NFL draft, his performance in UCLA’s 62-27 rout of Arizona State was a good way to get momentum going in his favor.
Hundley’s stat line from Thursday night is deceptively generous in his favor. Thanks to receivers left wide-open and poor open-field tackling by Arizona State, a large chunk of the passing yards he accumulated came on yards after the catch gained by his receivers, including one play where wideout Eldridge Massington turned a four-yard pass into a 80-yard touchdown.
Still, Hundley played well enough—despite the fact that he was coming back from an injury to his non-throwing elbow that forced him to leave his previous game versus Texas—that CBSSports.com’s Dane Brugler considered it the best performance of his UCLA career to date.
“If last night was your first time watching #UCLA QB Brett Hundley,” Brugler tweeted Friday, “you'd think he's the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.”
The 6’3”, 226-pound quarterback’s arm strength was already well-known, but more impressive Thursday was the accuracy and touch he showed on his intermediate throws.
What really stood out about Hundley on Thursday was how well he maneuvered the pocket under pressure. Rather than backing away from pressure or making hasty decisions like most quarterbacks (including Oregon’s Marcus Mariota, whom many project to be the No. 1 overall pick) tend to do, Hundley displayed Thursday that he can step up against the rush and deliver strong throws.
Hundley also put his athleticism on full display as a runner. He had multiple runs of longer than 20 yards in this game, while he also displayed unusual explosiveness for a quarterback when he hurdled an Arizona State defender on a shorter run.
Hundley hasn’t been as consistent on the field as Mariota or Florida State’s Jameis Winston, but he arguably has the most potential of any draft-eligible quarterback in the country. He must continue to play up the positives that stood out Thursday and avoid the negatives that have stood out in some of his other games, but Thursday’s game gives scouts reason to get excited about him.
Current Draft Projection: Round 1
Stock Down: Sean Mannion, QB, Oregon State, Sr.
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This Week: 15-of-32 passing for 123 yards, zero touchdowns, two interceptions
Opponent: USC
Perhaps the most overrated senior quarterback in the nation prior to this past weekend, Oregon State’s Sean Mannion will have many questioning his validity as a NFL prospect following a disastrous performance in the Beavers’ 35-10 loss against Southern California.
It seemed throughout the game as though Mannion was not seeing the field clearly and making poor decisions of where to throw the football. He was intercepted twice, including one that USC linebacker/safety Su’a Cravens broke on to not only take it away but also return it for a 31-yard touchdown. He had a number of other passes that hit defensive backs’ hands and could have been picked off.
Mannion’s accuracy and decision-making have often faltered in pressures situations, and that continued to be the case on Saturday night. His timing seemed to be off with his receivers, while he struggled to maneuver the pocket against pass-rushers.
Even without the two interceptions, Mannion had as many incompletions as he had completions on Saturday. Most of the passes he was able to complete were screens or short, simple throws; only two of his passes, both to wide receiver Richard Mullaney, went more than 11 yards in this contest.
Mannion has great size for a quarterback at 6’5” and 227 pounds, but his size seems to get mistaken for arm strength. He doesn’t drive the ball downfield with enough velocity to be a consistently successful deep passer at the next level.
He has typically been a statistically successful, efficient passer in Oregon State’s offensive system, but that was not the case on Saturday. If he is going to be anything more than a late-round pick in the 2015 draft, he needs to cut down on his mistakes and show improvement throwing under pressure.
Current Draft Projection: Rounds 6-7
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Stock Up: Cody Kessler, QB, USC, Jr.
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This Week: 24-of-32 passing for 261 yards, two touchdowns
Opponent: Oregon State
While Sean Mannion has seemingly received more consideration as an NFL draft prospect at this point (in part because he is a senior), it seemed clear on Saturday night that Cody Kessler was the better quarterback on the field when USC played Oregon State.
Over the course of a game in which he completed 75 percent of his passing attempts, Kessler displayed efficiency and accuracy both throwing within the pocket and on the move. While Kessler has not proven to be a running threat, he was effectively able to extend plays away from the pressure and give himself shorter throws on Saturday night.
Kessler also put his arm strength on display, most notably on a deep ball he launched more than 50 yards through the air to connect with wide receiver Darreus Rogers on a Hail Mary touchdown pass to end the first half.
So far in his junior season, Kessler has displayed much more polish and consistency than previous years. Through USC’s first four games, Kessler has completed 72 percent of his passes for 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions with 8.4 passing yards per attempt.
Physically, there’s nothing particularly special about Kessler, who is listed at 6’1” and 210 pounds by USC’s website. It would be somewhat surprising if Kessler, who isn’t likely to be an early-round pick, declared for the 2015 draft.
That said, his tools are good enough for him to potentially have a solid future as an NFL passer. With as efficiently as he has played so far this season, scouts should start paying attention.
Current Draft Projection: Round 5
Stock Down: Kevin Hogan, QB, Stanford, Jr.
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This Week: 17-of-26 passing for 178 yards, one touchdown, one interception; 14 rush for 53 yards, one touchdown, one fumble
Opponent: Washington
Although he ultimately led his team to victory, Stanford redshirt junior quarterback Kevin Hogan struggled against a talent-laden Washington defense on Saturday.
Hogan had one pass picked off by Washington cornerback Marcus Peters and a number of other errant throws that could have been interceptions. Most of the throws he was able to complete were short passes or screens, with the exception of a few strong downfield connections with wide receiver Devon Cajuste.
The Stanford quarterback displayed his ability to make plays with his feet, including a five-yard fourth-quarter rushing touchdown that proved to be the game-winning score in a 20-13 contest, but he also lost a fumble on a run up the middle. And while he has enough athleticism to make plays at the collegiate level, he doesn’t project as a dynamic NFL dual-threat.
A 6’4”, 225-pound signal-caller with a good arm and who is in his third year as a starter for the Cardinal, Hogan has the physical tools to draw interest from the NFL. His unorthodox throwing delivery should be of significant concern to scouts, however, while he has yet to display the consistent accuracy needed to thrive as a pro passer.
He could choose to follow in the footsteps of his Stanford predecessor, Andrew Luck, and declare for the draft as a fourth-year player with one remaining year of collegiate eligibility. He’s not nearly the caliber of prospect, however, that Luck was as the 2012 No. 1 overall pick.
Current Draft Projection: Rounds 4-5
Stock Up: Shaq Thompson, SS/OLB, Washington, Jr.
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This Week: Seven total tackles (one for loss), two forced fumbles, one fumble return for 32-yard TD, one pass breakup
Opponent: Stanford
Although his team ultimately came up short, Washington’s Shaq Thompson had an outstanding effort against Stanford Saturday in which he continued to show that he has as much big-play ability and versatility as any defensive player in college football.
Thompson made one of the game’s biggest plays when he ripped a fumble away from Stanford running back Remound Wright, recovered the loose ball himself and returned it 32 yards to the end zone for his third defensive touchdown—and fourth overall touchdown, as he has one from a situational stint at running back—this season.
The junior defensive playmaker also forced Kevin Hogan’s fumble in the third quarter, which was recovered by teammate and fellow future early-round NFL draft selection Danny Shelton. He broke on a pass that he nearly intercepted and was solid throughout the game as a tackler.
Thompson even displayed his value on special teams in this game. He utilized his great speed to track down Stanford wide receiver Ty Montgomery, another potential first-round pick, at the 18-yard line on a kickoff return. He was also entrusted to run the ball on a fourth-quarter fake punt, though that failed to yield the desired result.
While Thompson typically starts at linebacker for the Huskies, he spent most of Saturday’s game at strong safety. That might actually be his best role in the NFL. A terrific athlete at 6’1” and 228 pounds who covers well, Thompson could play in a similar capacity to that which Kam Chancellor plays for the Seattle Seahawks.
That said, Thompson’s ability to play both at linebacker and in the secondary, while he can also contribute on special teams and perhaps even offensively in a package or two, is a big part of his appeal to NFL teams.
With a start to his junior season in which he has made no shortage of big plays, Thompson has gone a long way toward solidifying himself as a first-round draft choice.
Current Draft Projection: Round 1
Stock Down: Kasen Williams, WR, Washington, Sr.
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This Week: One reception for 14 yards
Opponent: Stanford
Once considered to be a potential first-round pick, Kasen Williams’ draft stock is plummeting as the wide receiver has failed to make any significant impact for the Washington offense thus far in his senior season.
A big wide receiver listed at 6’3” and 217 pounds by Washington’s website, Williams was an explosive downfield playmaker early in his career for the Huskies. Between his freshman and sophomore years, Williams accumulated 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns on 113 receptions.
His junior season came to an early end, however, when he suffered a Lisfranc foot fracture and broken left fibula last October. The injury kept him out of spring practices, according to Perry Allen of The Seattle Times, and he has been unable to re-emerge as a key factor this fall.
Williams caught one pass on a 14-yard sideline out Saturday but was otherwise a non-factor. Through five games this season, he has just six total receptions for 47 yards.
Fox Sports’ Charles Davis suggested during the game broadcast Saturday that Williams might simply be out of sync with Washington quarterback Cyler Miles, as Williams caught passes from Keith Price during his first three seasons for the Huskies.
That said, there’s reason to be concerned at this point that Williams might not be the same player he was prior to the injury. A Lisfranc injury can be tough to bounce back from, and Williams did not show much ability to beat coverages and get open on Saturday.
The first round seems like a far cry for Williams as a draft prospect now. Already likely to be medically red-flagged by NFL teams, Williams could fall to the late rounds or out of the draft altogether if he doesn’t raise his game quickly.
Current Draft Projection: Day 3, dependent on if he can re-emerge in Washington offense
Stock Up: Jordan Jenkins, OLB, Georgia, Sr.
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This Week: Five total tackles, two tackles for loss (one sack)
Opponent: Tennessee
Three Georgia starting linebackers—Ramik Wilson, Amarlo Herrera and Leonard Floyd—have already had strong performances noted for bolstering their draft stock in previous weeks. All three of them were unspectacular in Georgia’s most recent game against Tennessee, but the fourth starting linebacker in the Bulldogs’ 3-4 defense, senior Jordan Jenkins, stood out in their place.
The 6’3”, 252-pound outside linebacker excelled as an edge defender versus the run on Saturday. He consistently held the edge and showed he could generate the power to drive blockers back and disrupt runs on a number of occasions, including one play he blew up for a five-yard tackle for loss.
Jenkins was also impactful as a pass-rusher in Georgia’s 35-32 victory. He made a couple of plays, including his sack at the end of the first quarter, by stunting inside and flying through gaps with his speed. He was also able to provide pressure on multiple occasions by winning around the edge with his hands and ability to turn the corner.
The 3-4 outside linebacker position Jenkins currently plays is where he projects best to the NFL, but he could also play as a strong-side linebacker in a 4-3 defensive scheme. He might not qualify as a great pass-rusher or elite athlete, but he’s a well-rounded run defender who has been exhibiting playmaking ability since he was a true freshman.
After being overshadowed in Georgia’s early games, his play Saturday showed that he remains a key factor in the Bulldogs defense and should be among the Georgia players drawing serious interest as an NFL prospect.
Current Draft Projection: Rounds 3-4
Stock Up: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia, Jr.
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This Week: 28 rush for 208 yards, two touchdowns; four receptions for 30 yards; two kickoff returns for 47 yards
Opponent: Tennessee
With another spectacular performance against quality competition on Saturday, Georgia’s Todd Gurley continued to demonstrate why he will almost certainly break the NFL draft’s drought on first-round running backs in 2015, assuming he decides to turn pro after his junior season.
The Tennessee defense features a number of players with significant NFL potential, including senior linebacker A.J. Johnson. But while Johnson racked up 17 total tackles in an up-and-down performance Saturday, the defense as a whole proved to be no match for Gurley.
Gurley’s rare burst out of the backfield for a 6’1”, 226-pound back was on full display as he exploded into running lanes and then gained yards after contact throughout the contest by driving through arm tackles.
The back was a consistent source of positive yardage throughout the game, as he averaged 7.4 yards per carry, while also showing he could catch passes out of the backfield and make an impact on kickoff returns, but his two biggest highlights came down the stretch in the fourth quarter.
Gurley bounced his way into a big lane and then showed he could quickly accelerate to sprinter speed, dropping a defender with a stiff arm in the process, for a 51-yard touchdown run. On his very next touch in the game, Gurley dropped another highlight by hurdling over a defender en route to a 26-yard gain.
Perhaps the only weakness in Gurley’s game Saturday came in pass protection, as he was run through by Tennessee defensive end Corey Vereen on one play and gave up bull-rush pressure to Vereen that aided a sack on the last play of the first half. That said, Gurley has proven capable in pass protection previously and also blocked Vereen successfully on a number of other occasions in this game.
Gurley has a rare skill set that transcends the declining value of his position. The question with Gurley should no longer be whether he is a first-round pick—something no running back was in either of the last two NFL drafts—but whether he should be selected in the top 10.
Current Draft Projection: Top 15
Stock Up: Ameer Abdullah, RB, Nebraska, Sr.
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This Week: 22 rush for 208 yards, three touchdowns; one kickoff return for four yards
Opponent: Illinois
It would be unfair to include Gurley in a "Stock Up" slide for a second time this season without doing the same for Ameer Abdullah, who not only ran for an identical 208 yards on Saturday but also leads the nation with 833 rushing yards and 1,060 all-purpose yards through his first five games.
Though all but four of his yards came on rushing plays Saturday in Nebraska’s 45-14 victory over Illinois, Abdullah truly is an all-purpose player. The shifty back is a skilled receiver out of the backfield who also has experience returning both kickoffs and punts.
Abdullah had already accumulated 2,977 rushing yards and 4,914 all-purpose yards prior to the start of his senior season, but he’s raised his game to new heights as a senior. With 10 touchdowns already under his belt, Abdullah has been the clear superstar of Nebraska’s offense thus far and has established himself as a top Heisman Trophy candidate.
As impressive as Abdullah’s final numbers against Illinois were on Saturday, they probably still could have been significantly higher. After running the ball 20 times for 196 yards in the first half against the Illini, the Cornhuskers smartly rested him for most of the second half with a big lead already in hand.
Abdullah is a small back, listed by Nebraska at just 5’9” and 195 pounds, but it’s become clear so far this year that he, too, is a special talent at running back. A tough runner for a back of his size, Abdullah combines speed and agility with the ability to bounce off contact and extend gains.
He hasn’t had to go up against any particularly tough defenses this year, so the real test of his draft stock will come in his upcoming game against Michigan State, which ranks sixth nationally in rushing yards per game. If he can continue to stand out against the Spartans, he’ll truly be a prospect shooting up boards.
Current Draft Projection: Round 2
Hidden Gem of the Week: David Cobb, RB, Minnesota, Sr.
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This Week: 32 rush for 183 yards; three receptions for 50 yards
Opponent: Michigan
A bad season for Michigan turned worse on Saturday as the Wolverines lost their third game of the season, and one of the reasons they lost by 16 points to Minnesota was the continued success of Golden Gophers senior running back David Cobb.
Cobb was a steady back for Minnesota as a junior, but he has become one of the nation’s most productive running backs as a senior. He has accumulated more than 200 yards from scrimmage in three of his last four games and ranks third in the FBS in both rushing yards (722) and all-purpose yards (810, tied with Pittsburgh’s James Conner).
A well-built back listed at 5’11” and 220 pounds by Minnesota’s website, Cobb has shown that he can fight his way through contact, while he has displayed good speed and ability to shift between running lanes for a back of his size.
Displaying plenty of ability to break free for significant gains so far this year, Cobb ranks second in the FBS, only trailing Nebraska’s Ameer Abdullah, with 29 plays of 10 yards or more from scrimmage so far this season, according to CFBStats.com.
Cobb might have qualified as a sleeper prospect going into his senior season, but he won’t anymore if he continues to pile up yardage as Minnesota’s conference schedule against Big Ten opponents rolls onward.
Current Draft Projection: Round 5
Small School Stud of the Week: Tyler Varga, RB, Yale, Sr.
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This Week: 28 rush for 185 yards, five touchdowns
Opponent: Army
In his lone opportunity to play against an FBS team this season, Tyler Varga took advantage of it by rushing for five touchdowns, including a game-winner in overtime, to lead Yale to an upset victory over Army on Saturday.
Varga, a 5’11”, 224-pound running back from Ontario, has rushed for a total of 337 yards in just two games so far this season.
He remains a long shot to be drafted, but the impressive game he posted against Army will certainly be one that NFL scouts look at closely as teams consider whether to potentially take a chance on Varga as a late-round pick or invite him to a training camp as an undrafted free agent.
Should he continue to run as well as he has in his first two games, he just might get a shot to make it in the United States’ premier football league. If he does not, he likely has a career ahead of him in the Canadian Football League. He is ranked as the No. 2 draft prospect from north of the border by the CFL Scouting Bureau.
Current Draft Projection: Undrafted free-agent signing
Other Notable Performers
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One player who certainly made a name for himself this past weekend was North Carolina State junior quarterback Jacoby Brissett.
Brissett, a Florida transfer in his first playing season for the Wolfpack, had a breakout performance against his old school’s rival, Florida State, in which he threw for 359 yards and three touchdowns, while he also ran for 38 yards, giving the defending champions a serious scare.
A big quarterback with movement skills and a good arm, Brissett displayed a dynamic ability to make plays on the run Saturday and could be an intriguing prospect to watch, most likely for the 2016 draft.
UCLA’s Ishmael Adams is small for a cornerback prospect at just 5’8” and 190 pounds, but his performance against Arizona State will make him impossible for scouts to ignore. Adams had a total of 296 return yards, including a 100-yard touchdown on one of his five kickoff returns and a 95-yard interception-return touchdown, on Thursday.
Adams also nearly came up with a second interception on another impressive leaping pass breakup. It’s unlikely he will enter the 2015 draft, considering he is appealing "to get his freshman year of eligibility restored," according to UCLA’s website, but his explosive athleticism could make him an intriguing prospect as a fourth or fifth cornerback and a return specialist in the future.
Washington senior linebacker John Timu is overshadowed by the four potential first-round picks on his team’s defense (Shaq Thompson, defensive tackle Danny Shelton, outside linebacker Hau’oli Kikaha and cornerback Marcus Peters), but he is a legitimate NFL prospect in his own right who at times stood out more than his teammates on Saturday against Stanford.
Timu recorded a team-leading 11 tackles and two pass breakups in Saturday’s game. The 6’1”, 246-pound defender projects as a late-round pick to be a backup inside linebacker and special teams contributor.
NFL Draft Injury Notes
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This past weekend was a remarkably clean one on the injury front, as few draft-eligible players of significance suffered notable injuries.
Florida State defensive end Mario Edwards Jr. sat out Saturday’s game against North Carolina State with a concussion. Edwards possesses a highly intriguing combination of size, athleticism and strength that makes him a potential first-round pick, but he needs to get healthy and show he can put it all together for production on the field.
Among the players who returned to action Saturday was Baylor senior wide receiver Antwan Goodley, who played Saturday against Iowa State after missing two full games with a quadriceps injury he suffered in the Bears’ season opener against SMU. The dynamic pass-catcher, a projected second-day draft pick, recorded his first six catches of the year for 114 yards.
Dan Hope is an NFL/NFL Draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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