ALDS 2014: Orioles vs. Tigers Position-by-Position Breakdown, Predictions
The MLB postseason started off with a bang Tuesday night, as the Kansas City Royals edged the Oakland Athletics 9-8 in a 12-inning thriller, setting them up to meet the Los Angeles Angels in the ALDS.
That game will be talked about plenty over the next few days, and rightfully so, but the following will focus on this year's other ALDS matchup.
The AL East champion Baltimore Orioles (96-66) earned the No. 2 seed, and they take on the AL Central champion Detroit Tigers (90-72) with a trip to the ALCS on the line.
Few pegged the Orioles as favorites in the AL East entering the season, but they wound up running away with the division, finishing with a 12-game lead over the second-placed New York Yankees.
On the other hand, the Tigers were heavy favorites in the AL Central once again this year, after winning the previous three division titles. However, they never put significant distance between themselves and the eventual AL Wild Card Kansas City Royals, and they did not clinch the division until the final game of the regular season.
The Tigers have the star power on their side with the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Max Scherzer, David Price and Justin Verlander, but the Orioles proved to be the better overall team during the regular season, so it's certainly an intriguing matchup.
Starting with the catcher position, here is a position-by-position comparison of both teams, with an edge given at each spot, including the four starting pitchers and the bullpen.
Catcher
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Caleb Joseph | 82 | .207 | .618 | 51 | 9 | 9 | 28 | 22 | 0 | 1.2 |
| Alex Avila | 124 | .218 | .686 | 85 | 22 | 11 | 47 | 44 | 0 | 2.0 |
Position Overview
Back in 2011, it looked like Alex Avila was headed for stardom, as he hit .295/.389/.506 with 19 home runs and 82 RBI as a 24-year-old, but his offensive game has stalled since. He has a combined .229/.333/.373 line over the past three seasons, and while he doesn't provide much with the bat, he remains one of the best receivers in the game. He also has 31 career playoff games under his belt.
Meanwhile, the Orioles have spent much of the season trying to replace the injured Matt Wieters, with rookie Caleb Joseph seeing the bulk of the action. He has some decent pop, homering in five straight games earlier this season, but he too is largely in there for his defense.
Nick Hundley has been sharing time with Joseph, and he will likely see at least one start during the team's ALDS series. He hit .243/.273/.358 with 13 extra-base hits and 22 RBI in 218 at-bats this season.
Edge: Detroit Tigers
Postseason experience is the difference-maker here, as both catchers are plus defenders with limited offensive skills, but Avila has been there before.
First Baseman
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Steve Pearce | 102 | .293 | .930 | 99 | 26 | 21 | 49 | 51 | 5 | 6.0 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 159 | .313 | .895 | 191 | 52 | 25 | 109 | 101 | 1 | 4.9 |
Position Comparison
Miguel Cabrera did not quite put up the MVP numbers he did over the past two seasons, but he was still one of the most dangerous hitters in all of baseball, and he enters the postseason on fire.
Hobbled by a groin injury down the stretch a year ago, Cabrera hit .379/.409/.709 with 10 doubles and eight home runs this September, and he'll be looking to keep it going in the ALDS.
For the Orioles, Steve Pearce was one of the better out-of-nowhere stories in all of baseball this year.
The 31-year-old has been with five different organizations since the start of 2012, and he was actually designated for assignment by the Orioles in late April. He returned a few days later, though, and eventually played his way into everyday at-bats when Chris Davis was on the DL.
His numbers were terrific all year, and his 6.0 WAR was tied for seventh among AL position players this season, despite the fact that he played in just 102 games.
Edge: Detroit Tigers
Pearce has been a great find for the Orioles this year, but you have to go with the red-hot Cabrera.
Second Baseman
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Jonathan Schoop | 137 | .209 | .598 | 95 | 18 | 16 | 45 | 48 | 2 | 1.6 |
| Ian Kinsler | 161 | .275 | .727 | 188 | 40 | 17 | 92 | 100 | 15 | 5.5 |
Position Comparison
With Prince Fielder playing a grand total of 42 games this season, there is little doubt that the Tigers get the better end of the offseason trade with the Texas Rangers that landed them Ian Kinsler.
It goes beyond simply winning that trade, though, as Kinsler has brought a completely different dynamic to the top of the Detroit lineup. On top of his impressive mix of power and speed, he has also played a terrific second base this season, making him one of the best all-around players at the position.
Jonathan Schoop entered the season as the No. 5 prospect in a talented Orioles farm system, according to Baseball America, and the future looks to be bright for the 22-year-old.
His plate discipline is still a work in progress, as he walked only 13 times compared to 122 strikeouts while hitting just .209 on the year. However, he did show some nice pop with 16 home runs in 455 at-bats, and he was one of the better defensive second basemen in the league to boot.
Edge: Detroit Tigers
Schoop has the tools to be one of the better second basemen in the league a few years from now, but Kinsler is already one of the best at the position and a true difference-maker atop the lineup for the Tigers.
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Third Baseman
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Ryan Flaherty | 102 | .221 | .644 | 62 | 15 | 7 | 32 | 33 | 1 | 1.1 |
| Nick Castellanos | 148 | .259 | .700 | 138 | 31 | 11 | 66 | 50 | 2 | -1.5 |
Position Comparison
Nick Castellanos shifted between third base and left field while flying through the Tigers minor league system, before being handed the everyday job at the hot corner this spring as a 22-year-old.
His game is still a work in progress, both in the field and at the plate, where he profiles as a future .300 hitter, but all in all, he was relatively productive at the plate in his rookie season.
After losing Manny Machado for the season, the Orioles shifted Chris Davis over to third base, only to lose him to a 25-game suspension for amphetamines.
That leaves the O's scrambling to fill the position, with Ryan Flaherty and Jimmy Paredes splitting time down the stretch and Alexi Casilla even getting a look in the final days of the season. Flaherty has the most experience with the team and is the best fielder of the bunch, so expect him to see the bulk of the playing time.
Edge: Detroit Tigers
We'll take the offensive production of Castellanos over the glove of Flaherty, who doesn't provide much with the bat but does have some postseason experience.
Shortstop
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| J.J. Hardy | 141 | .268 | .682 | 142 | 28 | 9 | 52 | 56 | 0 | 3.4 |
| Andrew Romine | 94 | .227 | .554 | 57 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 30 | 12 | 0.2 |
Position Comparison
Shortstop has been a weak spot of sorts for the Tigers this year, after Jose Iglesias was lost for the season in spring training, with the glove-first duo of Andrew Romine and Eugenio Suarez splitting time there.
Suarez looked like the guy after being called up, but his bat cooled considerably. It was Romine who saw the bulk of the starts in September, and he hit a solid .298/.353/.319 over the final month.
It was a down year for J.J. Hardy at the plate, as he managed just nine long balls after averaging 26 per season in his first three years with the Orioles.
Hardy still managed to post a 3.4 WAR, good for second among AL shortstops (Erick Aybar, 3.9), and that was thanks in large part to his stellar glove work. The 32-year-old is a free agent at the end of the season, so he'll be looking to boost his stock with a strong October showing.
Edge: Baltimore Orioles
The Tigers may very well give both Romine and Suarez time at shortstop in the postseason, depending on whether they are looking for defense or a little extra offense. Regardless, Hardy has them both beat in offensive and defensive skills, even in what has been a down year.
Left Fielder
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Alejandro De Aza | 142 | .252 | .700 | 120 | 24 | 8 | 41 | 56 | 17 | 0.7 |
| J.D. Martinez | 123 | .315 | .912 | 139 | 30 | 23 | 76 | 57 | 6 | 4.2 |
Position Comparison
J.D. Martinez showed some flashes of being a plus run producer during his time in Houston, with 11 home runs and 55 RBI in 395 at-bats back in 2012. However, with an impressive group of young outfielders vying for playing time, the Astros opted to release the 27-year-old during spring training.
With Andy Dirks lost to a back injury, the Tigers took a flier on Martinez two days after he was released, and that wound up being one of the best decisions of the season. His .389 BABIP and 19.5 percent HR/FB rate suggest luck has been on his side, but he's been a consistent producer all season, so there's no reason to bet against him at this point.
The Orioles acquired Alejandro De Aza off waivers from the Chicago White Sox on Aug. 30, and he quietly hit .293/.341/.537 with 11 extra-base hits in 82 at-bats down the stretch, emerging as the everyday left fielder and No. 2 hitter.
Delmon Young is also an option there, and he hit .302 with 11 doubles and seven home runs in 242 at-bats during the regular season. He has an .859 OPS with nine home runs and 18 RBI in 117 career postseason at-bats, so if nothing else, he could see some key pinch-hit at-bats, a role in which he was an impressive 10-for-20 on the season.
Edge: Detroit Tigers
De Aza has been a nice scrapheap find for the Orioles over the final month of the season, but Martinez was the scrapheap find of the year, and he has been one of the most productive outfielders in baseball since settling into an everyday role.
Center Fielder
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Adam Jones | 159 | .281 | .780 | 181 | 30 | 29 | 96 | 88 | 7 | 4.9 |
| Rajai Davis | 134 | .282 | .721 | 130 | 27 | 8 | 51 | 64 | 36 | 1.2 |
Position Comparison
The speedy Rajai Davis took over as the everyday center fielder in Detroit after Austin Jackson was shipped out at the deadline in the David Price trade, and he essentially gave the team a second leadoff hitter out of the No. 9 spot in the lineup.
However, Davis has been slowed by what is being called a "Grade 1 pelvic strain," and his status for the division series is still up in the air at this point. If he can't go, the team would be left choosing between Don Kelly, Ezequiel Carrera and Tyler Collins to fill the spot.
Things are much more clear in Baltimore, where Adam Jones remains one of the best center fielders in the game today and the face of the franchise for the Orioles.
He posted a career-best 4.9 WAR this season, and no disrespect to the impressive numbers that Nelson Cruz posted, but Jones is my pick for the team MVP honors in Baltimore this season for his all-around contributions.
Edge: Baltimore Orioles
Even if there weren't questions about the health of Davis, this one would not be particularly close, as Jones is one of the game's elite outfielders both at the plate and in the field.
Right Fielder
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Nick Markakis | 155 | .276 | .729 | 177 | 27 | 14 | 50 | 81 | 4 | 2.1 |
| Torii Hunter | 142 | .286 | .765 | 157 | 33 | 17 | 83 | 71 | 4 | 0.4 |
Position Comparison
Torii Hunter has lost a step here in his age-39 season, especially in the field, where he was statistically one of the worst defensive right fielders in baseball. But he can still swing the bat, and he had a solid season out of the No. 2 spot in the lineup.
Hunter is a career .278/.340/.426 hitter over 176 postseason at-bats, but he is still searching for his first World Series appearance. Expect him to be as hungry as anyone to get there as he enters the homestretch of what has been an impressive career.
Nick Markakis is the longest-tenured Orioles player by a sizable margin; he was a first-round pick back in 2003 and has been a staple in right field since 2006.
He's no longer asked to be a run producer in a lineup that led the majors in home runs this season, instead slotted in the leadoff spot, where his plus on-base skills are a weapon. He too is a below-average defender from a metrics standpoint, but he ranked second among AL right fielders with 11 outfield assists.
Edge: Draw
Hunter has more postseason experience to his credit, but Markakis may be the more important player at this point as a table-setter atop the Orioles lineup. It's too close to call.
Designated Hitter
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Nelson Cruz | 159 | .271 | .859 | 166 | 32 | 40 | 108 | 87 | 4 | 4.7 |
| Victor Martinez | 151 | .335 | .974 | 188 | 33 | 32 | 103 | 87 | 3 | 5.3 |
Position Comparison
After missing all of the 2012 season recovering from knee surgery, Victor Martinez returned to hit .301/.355/.430 with 14 home runs and 83 RBI last season. Those are solid numbers, but there was some question as to whether he could handle protecting Miguel Cabrera after Prince Fielder was shipped to Texas.
Those questions were answered and then some, as Martinez turned in the best year of his career, leading the AL in on-base percentage (.409) and OPS (.974) and outperforming his teammate and the reigning AL MVP.
Nelson Cruz turned down a qualifying offer ($14.1 million) from the Texas Rangers at the beginning of last offseason, and when the free-agent market didn't shape up as he'd hoped, he wound up settling for a one-year, $8 million deal from the Orioles.
That ended up being perhaps the biggest steal of the winter, as he led the AL with 40 home runs and gave the Orioles some much-needed punch in the middle of their lineup. It's also worth mentioning that he has a 1.018 OPS with nine double and 14 home runs in 34 career playoff games, winning ALCS MVP honors back in 2011.
Edge: Draw
While Martinez had the better overall season this year, and should finish second to Mike Trout in AL MVP voting in my opinion, this one is too close to call. In terms of what both of these guys mean to the success of their respective lineups, it's impossible to give an edge to either side.
Game 1 Starting Pitchers
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Chris Tillman | 34 | 13-6 | 3.34 | 4.01 | 1.230 | 66 | 150 | 207.1 | 2.3 |
| Max Scherzer | 33 | 18-5 | 3.15 | 2.85 | 1.175 | 63 | 252 | 220.1 | 6.0 |
Position Comparison
Reigning AL Cy Young and 18-game winner Max Scherzer takes the mound in Game 1 for the Tigers, and he turned in another dominant all-around season atop a Detroit rotation with no shortage of star power.
Scherzer did not face the Orioles during the regular season, but he is 3-1 with a 3.92 ERA in six career starts against them. That includes 1-0 with a 4.95 ERA in three starts at Camden Yards, where he'll be taking the mound in the series opener.
Opposing him will be 26-year-old Chris Tillman, who has been the Orioles' best pitcher over the past two seasons, going 29-13 with a 3.52 ERA in the role of staff ace.
The right-hander threw the ball particularly well in the second half, going 6-1 with a 2.33 ERA in 14 starts to help the O's run away with the AL East title. He allowed five hits and one run in 8.1 innings of work back on April 6, picking up the win in his lone start against the Tigers during the regular season.
"There's a lot of people with good stuff," teammate Adam Jones said of Tillman, via MLB.com. "But he has it between his ears. That hunger, that want. I can see it in his eyes. Especially the second half, there's a look in his eye. He wants the ball, and when a pitcher has that, has that confidence, the only thing that can slow him down is himself."
Edge: Draw
The way Tillman has pitched in the second half, this one doesn't tilt as heavily in the Tigers' favor as one might think. My guess is Game 1 will come down to the bullpens, with both starters pitching well enough to win.
Game 2 Starting Pitchers
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Wei-Yin Chen | 31 | 16-6 | 3.54 | 3.89 | 1.228 | 35 | 136 | 185.2 | 1.6 |
| Justin Verlander | 32 | 15-12 | 4.54 | 3.74 | 1.398 | 65 | 159 | 206.0 | 1.1 |
Position Comparison
The 2014 season was statistically the worst season Justin Verlander has had since 2008, but like last season, he finished on a high note, allowing just two runs in 15.1 innings of work over his final two starts.
With momentum on his side, and having not pitched since Sept. 24, he draws the Game 2 start for the Tigers. He was 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in two regular-season starts against the Orioles and is 7-0 with a 2.84 ERA in eight career starts at Camden Yards.
Wei-Yin Chen will take the ball for the Orioles; he enjoyed a breakout season in 2014 after going a combined 19-18 with a 4.04 ERA in his first two big league seasons.
The 29-year-old is susceptible to the long ball, allowing 23 on the season, but his low walk rate (1.7 BB/9) should help keep him from getting into trouble. Chen did not face the Tigers during the regular season, and he allowed seven hits and five runs in five innings in his only career start at Comerica Park back in 2012.
Edge: Detroit Tigers
Verlander finished the regular season well a year ago and carried it over into October when he had a 0.39 ERA and 0.57 WHIP in 23 innings of work in his three starts. Chen has pitched in the playoffs before, but experience wins out for Verlander here.
Game 3 Starting Pitchers
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Miguel Gonzalez | 26 | 10-9 | 3.23 | 4.89 | 1.296 | 51 | 111 | 159.0 | 2.0 |
| David Price | 34 | 15-12 | 3.26 | 2.78 | 1.079 | 38 | 271 | 248.1 | 4.6 |
Position Comparison
David Price earns the Game 3 start after picking up the win and securing the AL Central title with 7.1 scoreless innings in the regular-season finale.
Acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays in a deadline blockbuster, Price was 4-4 with a 3.59 ERA and seven quality starts in 11 outings for the Tigers, and he finished the season as the MLB leader in strikeouts and innings pitched.
Price allowed nine hits and three runs in five innings to earn the loss in his lone regular-season start against the Orioles back on May 8, and he is 6-2 with a 3.27 ERA in 11 career games (nine starts) at Comerica Park.
Miguel Gonzalez gets the ball for the Orioles; he took his game to another level in the second half, going 6-4 with a 2.11 ERA in 11 starts after the break.
He was shelled by the Tigers earlier this season, though, allowing 11 hits and nine runs (eight earned) in 5.1 innings of work. However, that was all the way back on April 4, and it's fair to say he's a different pitcher at this point in the season.
Edge: Detroit Tigers
Price has a lot to prove following the big deadline trade and with an 0-4 record and 5.81 ERA in four career postseason starts. Despite that track record, I'd still much rather be handing him the ball, no offense to Gonzalez, who has been huge for the O's.
Game 4 Starting Pitchers
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Bud Norris | 28 | 15-8 | 3.65 | 4.22 | 1.216 | 52 | 139 | 165.1 | 1.8 |
| Rick Porcello | 31 | 15-13 | 3.43 | 3.67 | 1.231 | 41 | 129 | 204.2 | 4.0 |
Position Comparison
Heading into the final month of the season, Rick Porcello was enjoying a career year, going 15-9 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.156 WHIP and looking like the team's second-best starter.
The wheels fell off in September, though, as he was 0-4 with a 6.20 ERA while failing to pitch beyond the fourth inning three different times. That leaves him as a major question mark at the back of the postseason rotation, and if he struggles in the ALDS, the team could turn to Anibal Sanchez early.
Porcello was 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in two starts against the Orioles this season, allowing five hits and one run in his one start at Camden Yards.
Bud Norris rounds out the Orioles postseason rotation, and he set career highs during the regular season in wins (15), ERA (3.65), WHIP (1.216) and BB/9 (2.8).
Pitching on the road may actually work against him, as he was 7-6 with a 4.80 ERA on the road compared to 8-2 with a 2.44 ERA at Camden Yards. He was also 0-2 with a 6.39 ERA in his two starts against the Tigers this year, so the splits do not favor him.
Edge: Baltimore Orioles
The splits may not favor Norris, but Porcello has been a different pitcher entirely over the past month of the season, and until he proves himself, it's hard to assume he'll suddenly snap out of it and pitch like he did early on. Edge goes to the steady performer, Norris.
Bullpen
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison/Leaders
| Kevin Gausman (20 GS, 3.57 ERA) | LR | Anibal Sanchez (21 GS, 3.43 ERA) |
| Ubaldo Jimenez (22 GS, 4.81 ERA) | LR | Kyle Lobstein (6 GS, 4.35 ERA) |
| Brad Brach (46 G, 3.18 ERA) | MR | Al Albuquerque (72 G, 2.51 ERA) |
| Tommy Hunter (60 G, 2.97 ERA) | MR | Phil Coke (62 G, 3.88 ERA) |
| Andrew Miller (73 G, 2.02 ERA) | SU | Joba Chamberlain (69 G, 3.57 ERA) |
| Darren O'Day (68 G, 1.70 ERA) | SU | Joakim Soria (48 G, 3.25 ERA) |
| Zach Britton (71 G, 1.65 ERA) | CL | Joe Nathan (62 G, 4.81 ERA) |
| Britton (37-of-41) | SV | Nathan (35-of-42) |
| O'Day (25) | HLD | Chamberlain (29) |
| Miller (14.9) | K/9 | Albuquerque (9.9) |
| Britton (2.4) | WAR | Albuquerque (1.9) |
Bullpen Overview
After watching their bullpen cough up a pair of leads in the ALCS a year ago, the Tigers spent big to add Joba Chamberlain and Joe Nathan to the mix in the offseason, but that has done little to improve their late-inning situation.
Their 4.29 bullpen ERA ranked 27th in the MLB this season, and while Nathan threw the ball better down the stretch and Joakim Soria is now healthy, this is still a shaky group at best for the Tigers heading into October.
On the other hand, the Orioles bullpen has been a legitimate weapon this season, ranking sixth in the MLB with a 3.10 ERA as a unit.
The addition of Andrew Miller at the trade deadline gives the Orioles a dominant late-inning trio alongside Darren O'Day and Zach Britton, and don't count out rookie Kevin Gausman making an impact in a long relief role as well.
Edge: Baltimore Orioles
The Tigers are going to have to hope their high-profile starting rotation can consistently pitch deep into games this October, because that bullpen is perhaps the biggest red flag among all postseason teams. On the flip side, if the Orioles starters can just turn in quality starts, they have the arms in the pen to shorten games.
Series Prediction
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Game 1: Baltimore Orioles 2, Detroit Tigers 1
Max Scherzer and Chris Tillman duke it out in a pitcher's duel, and both depart after seven innings with things knotted up at 1-1. The Tigers bullpen raises concerns early by allowing a run in the ninth, and the Orioles jump out to an early series lead.
Game 2: Detroit Tigers 5, Baltimore Orioles 0
Justin Verlander continues his strong finish to the season with eight shutout innings in Game 2, and that's more than enough for the Tigers, who score four runs in the fifth to chase starter Wei-Yin Chen.
Game 3: Detroit Tigers 6, Baltimore Orioles 4
For the second straight game, the Tigers offense gets to the Orioles' starting pitcher early, and this time, the Tigers chase Miguel Gonzalez with five runs in the first inning. Kevin Gausman comes on in relief and keeps the Orioles in the game, but they are unable to overcome that early deficit.
Game 4: Baltimore Orioles 4, Detroit Tigers 2
Facing elimination, the Orioles opt against going to Chris Tillman on short rest and hand the ball to scheduled starter Bud Norris. That decisions proves to be a good one, as the Orioles jump on a struggling Rick Porcello early and Norris gives them a quality start. The bullpen slams the door for the Orioles, and a three-run homer from Nelson Cruz proves to be the difference.
Game 5: Detroit Tigers 3, Baltimore Orioles 1
The deciding game is another pitcher's duel between Scherzer and Tillman, but this time, the Tigers manage to get to Tillman when they score three runs in the seventh to chase him. The bullpen holds on for the Tigers after Scherzer is pulled after six with a high pitch count, and the Tigers advance to their fourth straight ALCS.
Unless otherwise noted, all individual and team stats are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and accurate through the end of the 2014 regular season.
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