Can Tom Brady Repeat His Record-Breaking Season in 2009?

One of the most memorable moments from the 2008 NFL season came not on a great touchdown or a big defensive stand. Instead, it came on a safety blitz when the Kansas City Chiefs’ Bernard Pollard attempted to tackle New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady in a Week One game.

Pollard’s helmet collided with Brady’s left knee, tearing the ACL and ending the quarterback's season almost as soon as it began. Brady was entering 2008 off a record-breaking season two years ago, and, with the entire offense returning, appeared ready to rewrite the record books again before the injury.

In Brady’s absence, Matt Cassel, who had not started a game since high school, took over and played well for the Patriots but ultimately failed to lead them to the playoffs. Not that there was ever any concern about who would be the starter in New England, but Cassel has since been traded to the Chiefs, leaving Kevin O’Connell, Matt Gutierrez and Brian Hoyer as the players to back up Brady this season.

Those players have attempted a combined seven passes in the NFL.

So when a player who was at the top of his game suffers a knee injury yet relies on his arm, what are we to think of his prospects for the upcoming season? Though it wouldn’t seem as though a knee injury would limit a pocket-passing quarterback too much in the first place, we have seen this before in players, most recently Daunte Culpepper and Carson Palmer.

Both of those players were playing at an extremely high level before similar injuries took their toll. Following the season in which Culpepper was hurt, he was released and has since bounced around the league with little success. Palmer came back quickly after sustaining his injury in the playoffs, but wasn’t quite the same guy he was before.

Both players saw their completion percentages and quarterback ratings drop while posting below their average TD to INT ratios. The difference with Brady is that his injury happened in the first week of the season, thus giving him more time to recover.

So now let’s take a look at the surrounding cast for Brady in New England and you begin to realize what makes New England so good. Not only does the entire offense return, including the offensive line, running backs, and all the pertinent receivers, but the Patriots went out and signed Joey Galloway, who most recently played for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Injuries limited Galloway last season, but his time in Tampa Bay proved he’s capable of playing well, even though he’s entering his 15th season in the league.

Imagine a great offensive line, a solid running back corps, and having your three starting receivers being Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Joey Galloway. That’s what Brady has around him, and it will help him transition back into the league off of the knee injury.

The schedule appears set up well in New England’s favor, as most of their games against good teams, such as the Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, and Tennessee Titans, are at Gillette Stadium. However, four of the final six games are on the road, including contests at the New Orleans Saints, Miami Dolphins, and Houston Texans.

So considering all that we arrive back at the knee injury. How much it affect Brady truly remains to be seen, but the best way to evaluate the situation is by looking at similar situations that happened to Culpepper and Palmer before.

However, both of those players had less time to recover and had a worse surrounding cast. On the other hand Brady has all the weapons needed to produce. The stark truth is that the injury will limit Brady this season, and there’s no way he’ll come close to touching his record-breaking numbers of 2007. His completion percentage, his accuracy and his touchdown totals could suffer a bit, but his long recovery time and the terrific offense around him suggest Brady should make a smooth transition back.

He won’t be quite the same guy he was before, but he’ll still finish as one of the top fantasy football quarterbacks this season and should be taken as a sure-bet QB1.

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