MLB Cy Young 2014: Breaking Down Leading Candidates for Prestigious Award
The race for the American League and National League Cy Young Awards this season are absolutely fascinating heading down the home stretch.
On one side we have the National League, which has a dominant front-runner who has basically locked up the award. On the other is the American League, where two contenders have separated themselves from the pack and are now in a dead heat.
With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at the respective candidates.
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Honorable mentions: Johnny Cueto of the Cincinnati Reds, Max Scherzer of the Detroit Tigers and Zack Greinke of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
*All stats and explanation of advanced stats can be found at baseball-reference.com unless otherwise mentioned.
National League
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Statistics rarely ever tell the whole story, but they do in the case of Clayton Kershaw. There is really no debate for this award at all actually.
Kershaw leads the MLB in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for pitchers, earned-run average (ERA), wins, win-loss percentage, walks and hits per inning pitched (WHIP), strikeouts per nine innings pitched, complete games, adjusted-ERA plus, fielding-independent pitching, adjusted-pitching runs and adjusted-pitching wins.
That’s the entire MLB, not just the National League.
Kershaw is also set to become the first pitcher to lead the MLB in ERA for four straight seasons, which is an incredible feat. What’s more, he missed the entire month of April with injury and has still put together one of the most impressive individual seasons in recent memory. His excellent pitching is a large reason why the Los Angeles Dodgers are playoff bound.
Kershaw also plays some defense, as ESPN Stats & Info pointed out. ESPN Stats & Info also noted that Kershaw made some history this year:
The actual debate here is whether Kershaw will win the MVP award. Only 10 pitchers have won it since 1956, including Justin Verlander in 2011.
Adrian Gonzalez certainly thinks Kershaw deserves the MVP, via Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times: “If someone even tries to mention someone else, they’re an idiot.”
Gonzalez may have put it rather bluntly, but there is a case to be made. Neil Greenberg of The Washington Post made that case exactly and noted that at the time of his writing, the Dodgers held a .846 winning percentage in games Kershaw started and a .511 winning percentage in games when he didn’t.
It’s hard to argue with that.
Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
We included Adam Wainwright here just so there is some competition for Kershaw, but it’s not fair to simply minimize his accomplishments for the St. Louis Cardinals.
Wainwright ranks seventh in the MLB in WAR for pitchers, fifth in ERA, fifth in WHIP, seventh in hits per nine innings pitched, fifth in innings pitched, second in complete games, tied for first in shutouts, second in home runs per nine innings pitched, sixth in adjusted ERA-plus, fourth in adjusted-pitching runs and third in adjusted-pitching wins.
He also joined Kershaw in the 20-win club and has been critical in helping the Cardinals reach the playoffs.
Craig Calcaterra of Hardball Talk noted that Wainwright deserves some recognition, even if it won’t come in the form of the Cy Young:
"He is one of the greatest pitchers to never win a Cy Young award. In an era where 20-game winners are a lot more rare than they used to be, Wainwright has won 19 or 20 games in four of his last five seasons. That’s made all the more special given that those seasons wrap around a year lost to Tommy John surgery. No, wins aren’t everything. But when you get enough of them, consistently over time, it does tell you something.
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Winning 20 games and posting a lights-out 2.38 ERA is normally a surefire way to win the Cy Young. It just so happens that Wainwright is going up against an absolute pitching machine in Kershaw.
American League
Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians and Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
We are lumping Corey Kluber and Felix Hernandez together because the American League Cy Young is a two-man race.
Kluber is the strikeout machine who became the first player to strike out at least 14 in back-to-back starts since Randy Johnson in 2004. Kluber has also struck out at least 10 batters in 10 different games this year.
Kluber leads the American League in WAR for pitchers and is fourth in ERA, second in wins, seventh in WHIP, second in strikeouts, tied for second in complete games, fourth in adjusted ERA-plus, first in Fielding Independent Pitching, third in adjusted-pitching runs and third in adjusted-pitching wins.
As for the workhorse Hernandez, he is second in the American League in WAR for pitchers, second in ERA, first in WHIP, second in hits per nine innings pitched, second in total innings pitched, fourth in strikeouts, third in adjusted ERA-plus, fourth in Fielding Independent Pitching, first in adjusted-pitching runs and first in adjusted-pitching wins.
These two pitchers have just dominated the American League.
You can basically cherry-pick whichever stat seems to give the edge to one or the other, depending on the argument you want to make. It is also worth noting that the Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Indians have remained in the playoff chase all year, even if some didn’t expect that from either squad.
The thing that jumps out about this race is the fact that Hernandez seemingly had this award locked up in the first half of the season.
In fact, from May 18 to August 11, he didn’t throw fewer than seven innings or allow more than two runs in a single start. It was an absolutely astonishing stretch of baseball that put him far ahead of anyone else in terms of a Cy Young competition.
Perhaps that is what makes Kluber’s emergence all the more impressive. Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs noted that Hernandez’s WAR in the first half was five compared to Kluber’s 3.3, but Kluber’s checks in at 3.7 in the second half compared to Hernandez’s 1.2.
Sullivan broke it down even further:
"Kluber has more wins, and more losses. Since the break, while Felix has gone 3-3, Kluber has gone 8-3. For voters who care about ERA, Felix still has the advantage, but he’s pitched in front of a far superior defense, and in more pitcher-friendly environments. Kluber’s been supported by perhaps the worst team defense in baseball. For voters who look beyond ERA and wins and losses, Kluber’s not only even with Felix — he might be a hair ahead.
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You really cannot go wrong with either option. Hernandez got off to a blazing start, but Kluber has made up significant ground, which means this will be a nail-biter of a vote.
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