Johnson vs. Cariaso: A Complete Guide to UFC 178 Full Card
Get your fighting pants on.
The mismatch in the UFC 178 main event is real, but don't let that deter your interest. Be interested. Have I ever led you astray? Trust me. You want to watch this.
In that main event, you have UFC flyweight champ Demetrious Johnson defending the strap against Chris Cariaso, a long underdog with a 4-2 record as a 125-pounder and a No. 8 slot in the current UFC flyweight rankings.
But I urge you, for your own good: Look beyond the headliner. Because it's been a long time since a card went this deep. And it's not just that there are a lot of great fighters on the card, though there are. They're exciting fighters. Fighters who finish fights. Fighters with storylines and, you know, personalities. Fighters with big, big egos fighting other fighters with big, big egos. Title implications in multiple areas.
If you're not acquainted with this card, take this opportunity to do so. Here's a complete guide to the action, including information capsules on each fighter, matchup analysis, predictions and even viewing coordinates. Are you ready? I'm ready.
Manny Gamburyan vs. Cody Gibson
1 of 11
Division: Bantamweight
Records: Manny Gamburyan (13-8), Cody Gibson (12-4)
See it on: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
Gibson has turned a few heads in two UFC fights thus far. The first was a decision loss to uber-prospect Aljamain Sterling that Gibson took on just two weeks' notice. The second was a TKO defeat of Johnny Bedford (though the ending was not without some static).
Well-seasoned judoka Gamburyan would be on a two-fight losing streak if Dennis Siver hadn't flamed down a bathroom after the proceedings. Possibly in an effort to shake things up, Gamburyan is now debuting at bantamweight.
It may be a bit of an upset, but I think Gibson has the wrestling acumen and athleticism to thwart Gamburyan, who has looked shopworn of late and may not bring his power down to bantamweight with him.
Prediction: Gibson, unanimous decision
Jon Tuck vs. Kevin Lee
2 of 11
Division: Lightweight
Records: Jon Tuck (8-1), Kevin Lee (8-1)
See it on: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
Two fun-to-watch prospects with identical records square off on the Fight Pass finale.
Tuck now works out of the MMA Lab in Arizona, home base of Benson Henderson, among others. He's 1-1 in the UFC behind mainly a striking base. He has some grappling chops, but they're a bit thin. Ditto for takedown defense.
That's going to spell trouble against Lee, a strong wrestler and grinder (four of his wins came by submission, the other four by decision). There is a risk that Tuck will pick him apart on the feet, but I see takedowns and heavy top control neutralizing that advantage and then some.
Prediction: Lee, unanimous decision
Brian Ebersole vs. John Howard
3 of 11
Division: Welterweight
Records: Brian Ebersole (50-16-1), John Howard (22-9)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
These are two exciting journeymen going in opposite directions.
Ebersole had a nice streak going but then lost two straight. He also seems to be fighting only once a year these days, which, given his long career and recent injury history, is a little unsettling.
Howard was on the brink of oblivion when the UFC brought him back in 2011, but he racked up a pile of wins in the minor leagues and was ready when the UFC called. Fighting on short notice, Howard shocked Uriah Hall last August and is now 2-1 in his latest UFC run.
Ebersole is the epitome of a wily veteran, landing takedowns and throwing and firing sneaky and sometimes crazy attacks in all phases. He'll have height and reach advantages on Howard, though Doomsday will have a power edge. Howard's wrestling and clinch games are pretty solid too.
This one is tough to call. I'm not sure the likable Ebersole has the stuff to compete at the UFC level anymore, but if he does, now's the time to show it, as three straight losses would almost surely earn him walking papers.
Howard has never fared well against top competition. But is Ebersole top competition? I don't think you can make that case anymore.
Prediction: Howard, unanimous decision
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Patrick Cote vs. Stephen Thompson
4 of 11
Division: Welterweight
Records: Stephen Thompson (9-1), Patrick Cote (20-8)
See it on: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
See what I mean about depth? When your card's eighth-best fight is Stephen Thompson vs. Patrick Cote, you've really got something.
This one's not hard to analyze. Cote is going to come forward and slug, and Thompson is a kickboxing prodigy.
This one's probably not going to the ground very often, and that fact will help both fighters avoid their relative weaknesses. (Though if anyone goes for a takedown, it will probably be Cote.)
Thompson has had no trouble converting that striking prowess into MMA success. He's already had some highlight-reel finishes, thanks to his razor-sharp punches and a one heck of a powerful head kick.
But you know what? If Cote can eat an Anderson Silva head kick, I'm thinking Thompson's will be takeable, too.
Cote is a little older now, but I'd still bet on his chin, aggression and heavy punch combinations to puncture the balloon of the high-flying newcomer.
Prediction: Cote, unanimous decision
Jorge Masvidal vs. James Krause
5 of 11
Division: Lightweight
Records: Jorge Masvidal (27-8), James Krause (21-5)
See it on: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
Krause was on one heck of a good run there for a while. Bobby Green kind of shut that down, but Krause has the tools to get well again. The rangy Missourian has a nasty submission game, but don't forget about those kicks, either, especially the leg kicks (Jamie Varner certainly won't).
Masvidal will be a willing dance partner on all fronts. He's just a mean dude. Sharp boxing and underrated grappling have vaulted the Miami native onto the UFC rankings. A win over Krause would get him even higher. Here's guessing the shorter Masvidal will get inside and make things tough for Krause.
Prediction: Masvidal, unanimous decision
Dominick Cruz vs. Takeya Mizugaki
6 of 11
Division: Bantamweight
Records: Dominick Cruz (19-1), Takeya Mizugaki (20-7-2)
See it on: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
For Cruz, it's beyond ring rust. You have to wonder whether he's the same fighter he was before.
It's a fair thing to wonder. The last time Cruz fought, Demetrious Johnson was still a bantamweight. (The two actually fought for Cruz's title.) In fact, there wasn't even a flyweight division at all at that point.
So, yeah. Two ACL surgeries and a torn groin were behind the three-year absence. And it's a worrying thing, especially considering so much of Cruz's success was predicated on the quickness and footwork that undergirded his unorthodox boxing game.
Either way, Cruz is ready to go now, and Mizugaki is in his way. Mizugaki has had a wonderful run of late, adding pop and aggression to his grinder's game in taking five straight from some tough divisional customers.
The riverboat gambler in me wants to roll the dice with Mizugaki. But the larger, more sensible part of me, the part of me that's just like a normal person, will go with Cruz. Methinks a truer measuring stick awaits the ex-champ, probably someone with a name that sounds something like Renan Barao.
Prediction: Cruz, unanimous decision
Cat Zingano vs. Amanda Nunes
7 of 11
Division: Women's bantamweight
Records: Cat Zingano (8-0), Amanda Nunes (9-3)
See it on: Pay-per-view
How can you not root for Zingano here? You can't do so, meaning not root.
After a blown ACL and a terrible personal tragedy kept her out for more than a year, she's back in the cage, and that's good news for fans. Zingano is aggressive and athletic, and she can put people on their backs with her heavy strikes. Don't forget that she was the No. 1 contender to Ronda Rousey's title before she injured her knee.
You can never count out Nunes, who is always looking to do some go berserk in the cage. And go berserk she will with Zingano. Her fists are heavy, her muay thai is dangerous and her grappling is unsung.
This one has Fight of the Night potential or would, if Donald Cerrone and Eddie Alvarez weren't fighting. Maybe I'm voting with emotion here, but I think Zingano shakes off the rust and grabs a stirring win in her return.
Prediction: Zingano, TKO, Round 2
Tim Kennedy vs. Yoel Romero
8 of 11
Division: Middleweight
Records: Tim Kennedy (18-4), Yoel Romero (8-1)
See it on: Pay-per-view
Two outstanding MMA wrestlers do battle in this one.
Romero is 37 years old but new to the sport—new enough that he hasn't yet foresaken his Olympic silver medal-winning wrestling game in pursuit of the big knockout. That always seems to happen when a grappler discovers he has the power to put lights out, as Romero undoubtedly does.
Kennedy has some power of his own, though it's certainly not of the stop-a-Mack-truck variety like Romero's. He likes to mash you against the cage and slowly suck away your life force. Or get you on the mat and choke you out.
Either one is a great strategy for the Michael Bispings of the world, but I'm not sure how far that gets you against Romero. The marble-cut Cuban is just getting started, and his ceiling right now is not visible. After this fight with Kennedy, it still won't be.
Prediction: Romero, TKO, Round 2
Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor
9 of 11
Division: Featherweight
Records: Conor McGregor (15-2), Dustin Poirier (16-3)
See it on: Pay-per-view
Conor McGregor has real star potential. And no one is more convinced of that than Conor McGregor, who hunts down microphones with the same enthusiasm he uses to hunt down knockouts.
Speaking of which, these guys have pretty similar bona fide resumes, especially around the striking game. The 5'9" Poirier has one inch of height advantage, while both men have identical 73" reaches. Both men like to seek knockouts, employing technique, accuracy and, worst of all for opponents, patience for finding and exploiting the other man's openings.
McGregor, despite having fewer fights, has six more knockout wins to his name. His blazing speed and powerful left hand are the key drivers on that front. Poirier, however, is easily his toughest test to date. Here's a guy who has the tools to go blow for blow with McGregor, and then some, potentially. Poirier is not going to wilt under McGregor's pace or aggression; in fact, the other guy usually wilts under him.
I wouldn't be surprised to see this go to the mat, where Poirier is fairly underrated (six submission wins, and remember that instant classic with the Korean Zombie?). McGregor has been pretty smooth here as well (working with Gunnar Nelson every day will do that), but I'll need to see him get it done against someone other than Max Holloway before I consider that a full-blown point of strength at this level for the Irishman.
It's not hard to imagine McGregor finding a home for that pickaxe of a left, but is it inconceivable that Poirier could do the same? I don't think so. I think a slight edge on the ground could tip the scales for the American, who seems like the kind to use these wars of words as motivation but won't become unhinged under the lights.
Prediction: Poirier, unanimous decision
Donald Cerrone vs. Eddie Alvarez
10 of 11
Division: Lightweight
Records: Donald Cerrone (24-6), Eddie Alvarez (25-3)
See it on: Pay-per-view
For a card this stacked to have a Fight of the Night front-runner this clear, well, that tells you something.
Cerrone has vicious muay thai and a four-fight win streak (all four of which won bonuses by the way). He's a man possessed, and there might be no better deal-closer in the UFC right now when there's blood in the proverbial waters.
On the other side, Alvarez has just a bit to prove. The standout boxing ace is debuting in the UFC after an extended championship-level run (and contract holdout) in Bellator. If he can win this Saturday, he will probably be the next title challenger.
Not much else to say here, really. This is going to be violent and it is going to be memorable. Cerrone is the perfect touch paper for Alvarez's career at this level and could be in the title picture himself with a win. Early oddsmakers have this as a dead heat. I'll give the nod to Alvarez, who has a stronger track record when the biggest prizes are on the line. The only drawback about this one is that it won't go five rounds.
Prediction: Alvarez, TKO, Round 3
Demetrious Johnson vs. Chris Cariaso
11 of 11
Division: Flyweight (for UFC flyweight championship)
Records: Demetrious Johnson (20-2-1), Chris Cariaso (17-5)
See it on: Pay-per-view
Whenever there's a main event mismatch this big, the anti-favorite backlash inevitably appears.
"Hey, don't sleep on [underdog name here]."
"So, are you picking [underdog name here]?"
"Nah."
"Ah."
So it goes again with Johnson vs. Cariaso. Can anything happen in MMA? Yes. Anything can happen in MMA. But don't feel too smart about making that assertion. It applies to everything else in the world as well. And if you're not willing to back it up by putting your pick where your mouth is, well, it's not worth too much, is it?
OK, rant over. But just because something can happen doesn't mean the odds are good. That's probably why Johnson is a huge favorite (as much as -1400, per Odds Shark) in this bout. That's incredible for a title fight; not even Joe Soto at UFC 177 was as big an underdog as Cariaso, and Soto was a 24-hour fill-in against T.J. Dillashaw.
It's a testament to Johnson's talent. Cariaso can grind, and he can win bouts. He's a fine fighter. But he's never beaten an elite flyweight. Johnson eats elite flyweights for breakfast. The speed, the head movement and footwork, the fully realized MMA game: It's just going to be too much for Cariaso.
Underdog stories are great on paper, but in the real world they often have decidedly non-picturesque endings.
Prediction: Johnson, submission, Round 1
Scott Harris writes about MMA and other things for Bleacher Report and other places. If you feel so inclined, why don't you give him a follow on Twitter.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
