Week 3 NFL Picks: Final Vegas Odds and Predictions for Sunday's Slate

When you only have 16 games to make your mark, there is such little margin for error that if you take a game for granted you will lose. The NFL is a tricky beast to figure out. There are singular moments that awe us, but it's watching the body of work that defines the best teams. 

Again, though, the number of games forces us to overreact to everything. One week ago at this time, Seattle was an unstoppable force that wouldn't lose a game on the west coast. Now, there are injuries piling up that leave us with questions about how the Seahawks will handle Denver. 

Finding logic in the NFL is as likely as finding it in a Michael Bay movie. All you have to do is sit back, watch what happens and examine it afterward. We're going to try putting a method to the madness with predictions for Week 3 games against the spread. 

Matchup	Pick
San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-1)	Chargers, 24-17
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)	Bengals, 27-13
Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Cleveland Browns	Browns, 23-20
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2.5)	Packers, 31-27
Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars	Colts, 31-13
Oakland Raiders at New England Patriots (-15)	Patriots, 35-14
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-12)	Saints, 41-17
Houston Texans at New York Giants (Pick 'Em)	Giants, 17-14
Washington at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)	Washington, 28-24
Dallas Cowboys at St. Louis Rams (Pick 'Em)	Cowboys, 28-20
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals	49ers, 23-17
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)	Dolphins, 24-21
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5)	Broncos, 27-24
Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3)	Panthers, 24-14
Chicago Bears at New York Jets (-2.5)	Jets, 20-17

Note: Odds via Oddsshark.com

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5)

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

The biggest matchup of the weekend is a rematch of last year's Super Bowl, though only the Seahawks and their fans would describe that February debacle as a great game. The good news is that we should get something more commensurate with the talent on both of these teams instead of a 43-8 shellacking. 

After losing in San Diego last weekend, the Seahawks have a lot of questions to answer. We know they are a great team at full strength, but Earl Thomas was hobbled in defeat and Marshawn Lynch is dealing with a sore back that Pete Carroll says, via Curtis Crabtree of Pro Football Talk, has been an "ongoing issue."

Another problem for the Seahawks is that San Diego was able to exploit the matchup of Antonio Gates against a linebacker, as the tight end had three touchdown catches to bury the defending champions. The Broncos have a good tight end in Julius Thomas, who measures in at 6'5". 

There is good news for the Seahawks, so let's not act like it's all doom and gloom. The offense has looked strong through two games. Even in the loss to the Chargers, they scored 21 points despite having less than 18 minutes of possession time. 

Percy Harvin is healthier now than he was in the Super Bowl, which is scary considering he had 137 all-purpose yards on four touches, including a kickoff-return touchdown to start the second half. 

With the Seahawks showing some vulnerability on defense last week, they will have to score more than normal to keep up with the Broncos. 

Any comparisons of this current Denver team to the one Seattle saw in the Super Bowl are misguided. The Broncos have 10 different starters this time around, including Ryan Clady back on the offensive line, Emmanuel Sanders replacing Eric Decker, and Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward in the secondary. 

Seattle's defensive line is also weaker compared to what the Broncos saw in the Super Bowl. Terry Blount of ESPN highlighted the changes for the Seahawks up front in a game preview:

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The Seahawks added veteran defensive tackle Kevin Williams, but his impact has been negligible so far. Rookie Cassius Marsh, who was expected to make a difference as an edge-rusher, hasn't shown much yet. Depth on the defensive line was a huge team strength last season because it kept everyone fresh late in game and into the playoffs. After two games, that same depth isn't apparent, but it's early. 

"

The reason Seattle was able to dominate Denver in the Super Bowl is because of the pressure on Peyton Manning. With the Broncos having their best offensive lineman playing this time around, and a weaker Seahawks defensive line, don't expect to see the same kind of pressure this time around. 

Sanders, who has blazing speed, is the kind of wide receiver who can give Richard Sherman fits, because the outspoken cornerback doesn't have elite speed. His strength is closing and playing the ball, so look for the Broncos to try double moves and take the top off Seattle's secondary to get big plays and take the crowd out of it early. 

Broncos 27, Seahawks 24

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

LM Otero/Associated Press

This could have been Arizona's coming-out party as the team to beat in the NFC West, or at least in the conversation with Seattle, because the 49ers showed their weaknesses last week in a loss against Chicago. 

Jim Harbaugh's group continues to get penalized at an alarming rate—16 times vs. the Bears and 27 through two games. They kept giving Chicago opportunities and eventually it cost them, not to mention four turnovers by Colin Kaepernick. 

Unfortunately for the Cardinals, Carson Palmer's ailing shoulder hasn't improved enough, and he will miss his second straight game, via Darren Urban of Cardinals.com. 

Even in a season when the 49ers have struggled to rush the quarterback, with the exception of Justin Smith, who has three of the team's four sacks, Drew Stanton isn't good enough to beat Vic Fangio's defense. 

Last week, while the final score shows the Bears put up 28 points, San Francisco's defense was outstanding. They allowed 216 total yards, and it was only because of the penalties that a lot of Chicago's drives were able to stay alive. 

Kaepernick's performance late in the game is going to be crucial for the 49ers. Andrew Siciliano of the NFL Network found the 49ers quarterback has a quarterback rating nearly 100 points lower in the fourth quarter compared to the first quarter:

If there's a matchup the Cardinals can try to expose in the passing game with Stanton, it's using big receivers like Michael Floyd (6'3") and Larry Fitzgerald (6'3) against San Francisco's cornerbacks. Brandon Marshall scored three touchdowns against Jimmie Ward last week. 

As long as the Cardinals can get into the red zone consistently, expect to see a lot of jump balls and fade routes from Stanton to exploit those matchups. 

Still, it's hard to see Stanton coming through against a good team after barely surviving the New York Giants last week. 

49ers 23, Cardinals 17

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2)

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Lost in the shuffle of the Broncos-Seahawks battle is a noteworthy NFC North matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. These two teams are similar in a lot of ways, but different enough to forge their own identity. 

The Packers have to rely on Aaron Rodgers because Eddie Lacy has been banged up and disappointing so far, while the defense has allowed 60 points and 353 rushing yards through two games. Jordy Nelson keeps getting better, leading the NFL in targets and receiving yards through two weeks (via ESPN Stats & Info and NFL on ESPN):

When it comes to throwing the ball and having a game-changing wide receiver, the Lions can write a book about that. Matthew Stafford has 80 attempts through two games and Calvin Johnson has caught 13 passes for 247 yards. 

The Lions aren't running the ball with any efficiency this season, racking up 146 yards through two games. That plays into Green Bay's hands because the Packers don't stop the run.

Even though Detroit's defense ranks ninth in passing yards allowed, we can't draw any conclusions yet because it came against a Giants team that looks terrible and a limited Cam Newton. This week will be the litmus test to see how good that unit is. 

Rodgers has picked apart Detroit's defense throughout his career, According to Justin Rogers of MLive.com, the Packers quarterback has completed 68 percent of his passes with 19 touchdowns and five interceptions against the Lions. 

Until Detroit manages to find some consistency from week to week and a way to contain Rodgers, it's hard not to like the Packers in this spot. 

Packers 31, Lions 27

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