Fantasy Football Preview: Hits and Misses

It's about that time when every football junkie starts to consider who will be lucky enough to secure a spot on his fantasy football roster. Drafts have already begun, and the peak season of drafting is only a few weeks away. It serves as a good time to try and determine who will be the solid contributors this year and who will be the anchors that drop your team to the bottom of the standings.

I have broken down, in order, who I feel are the top ten hits and misses - five from each. This doesn't mean they are the best or worst ten, just that they are ten guys that you either want to take heed of or stay away from. 

If a guy is being projected in most rankings where I think he belongs, he won't show up on either of these lists. My projections are based on a twelve team league. I also tried to keep from focusing on any one position too much, but some guys just had to be mentioned. Without further ado...

THE HIT LIST

1. Reggie Wayne, WR - IND. Wayne is now firmly entrenched as Peyton Manning's #1 look. Although he hasn't broken through with the numbers everyone expected the last couple of seasons, he still has been extremely solid and should be close to a top 5 receiver this year. Wayne projects as a fringe 2nd/3rd round pick. If he's there in the 3rd, I grab him without hesitation, even over Jennings and Steve Smith.

2. Ronnie Brown, RB - MIA. Brown has been a tease for most of his career, as I have learned more than once. However, this year he goes into the season with one of the best run blocking O lines in front of him and a coach who has proven to be committed to the run. As his backfield partner Ricky Williams gets up there in age, Brown will be relied on more to carry the load of the Dolphins offense. He projects anywhere from the mid-3rd to the mid-4th. If you only have one RB going into the 4th and he is on the board, then you just found your #2.

3. Matt Cassell, QB - KC. Cassell is a tough one to project, but when I saw him almost on the outside looking in on a couple top 100's, I knew he was being overlooked (or under-hyped as it may be). Definitely a product of the system last year, he still had to get the job done on the field, and he generally got much better as the season went on. KC will be a much more difficult place to succeed, but I still see him as a top 10 QB for sure, possibly even 6th or 7th best. If you are an owner who likes to wait until the later rounds to select a QB, he could be your guy in the 8th or beyond. Also, look for his #1 option Dwayne Bowe to benefit from better QB play.

4. Roy Williams, WR - DAL. It would be easy to write off Williams due to his lackluster play after arriving on the Cowboys last year. Things will undoubtedly be different in Dallas this year, and as the only proven option at WR, he will see a lot of looks from Romo. Williams is healthy and peaking age-wise (27), so this is a great time to take a chance on him, especially in the 5th and 6th round where his average projection has him being taken. 

5. Chris Johnson, RB - TEN. Having just moved to North Carolina before the 2007 college football season, I was lucky enough to see Chris Johnson emerge on the scene earlier than most. While I didn't expect him to produce the way he did for the Titans last year, He definitely has the qualities to be an every down back and I don't see a sophomore slump in his future. He is the biggest threat to break one in the league, and hopefully he is kept fresh enough for the fourth quarter to do just that by Jeff Fisher. He ranks as a late 1st/early 2nd pick by most. Although I don't see him as going much higher than that, I personally would have little hesitation taking him in the top 5.

THE MISS LIST

1. Steven Jackson, RB - STL. This one basically comes down to my perception of his heart more than anything, although I do think there are enough other warning signs to ward off taking him in the top of the 1st round. Jackson has battled injuries the last two years, and although he is healthy now, he always seems to be a risk for missing time. I am not a fan of taking anyone with serious injury questions as my first pick, especially in the top half of the round. Add to that shaky QB play and teams will definitely being keying on him. His line is much improved this year, and that could make him a wise choice if he stays healthy and motivated, but he is not worth the gamble to me. If he's there at the top of the 2nd, it's a no-brainer. Any higher and you can consider yourself forewarned. 

2. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB - SD. Age has caught up to LT, and for the first time since Marshall Faulk's decline we are not seeing his name at the top of the vast of projections. The end of an era indeed, but the question remains, where should he be drafted? The presence (and paycheck) of Sproles lead me to believe that we will only see about 75% of the touches that we are accustomed to seeing for LT. That means you should avoid him in the 1st round, even if you have some philosophy of handcuffing him to Sproles later in the draft.

3. Kurt Warner, QB - ARI. Can there be anything left in the tank at this point in Warner's career? Maybe the better question is does it matter since he has Fitz and Boldin as targets? Probably not, but there will definitely be the temptation to take Warner higher than one should. Projections have him going anywhere from the end of the 3rd to the 5th round. I wouldn't take him anywhere before the 5th and even then it may not be worth it.

4. Roddy White, WR - ATL. Two straight solid seasons have a lot of projections putting White on the 2nd/3rd round turn.  In order to be worthy of a selection that high, he is going to have to repeat the results of recent history, and that may be difficult with Tony G on board. White has only averaged 6.5 TDs in the last two years. Are those numbers in any position to rise, or even stay the same, with a red zone threat like Gonzalez in the fray?  I doubt it, and although he may have a strong year, I have a hard time putting him in the category of a Colston and Jennings, both of whom could be available as long as he is.

5. Drew Brees, QB - NO. I love the guy. You know exactly what you are going to get with him. However, every year there is a QB taken in the 1st round. Very rarely is it worth it. Only Brady and Manning have previously proved to be worthy of such a lofty selection. With both of those guys projecting as 2nd rounders, many have elevated Brees to the status of sole QB projected to go in the 1st this year. I just don't see it. No matter how good he is, how many fantasy champions will have selected Brees at the end of the 1st round?  My guess is very few... and it most likely will be someone else who won it for them if they do in fact become champions.