Making the Call on Week 3's Toughest Fantasy Lineup Decisions

The third week of the 2014 NFL season is already upon us. That noise you hear is weeping and gnashing of teeth from winless fantasy football owners or perhaps the smug chuckling from the undefeated.

Maybe you sit somewhere in between.

In any case, there are plenty of roster decisions to be made for this weekend. Last week's picks were spot on, for the most part—Dwayne Bowe and Justin Hunter send their apologies. With so much going on heading into Week 3—including lifted suspensions or vice versa—ferreting out fantasy value has become trickier.

Let's take a look at Week 3's toughest fantasy lineup decisions based on the latest injury reports, rumored benchings, performances to date and matchups.

Start: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers

Mike McCarn/Associated Press

Matchups and opportunity are an integral part of fantasy football prognostication. In the case of Jonathan Stewart and the Pittsburgh Steelers, they seem to be converging for a big day.

Carolina Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams missed Week 2 with an injury, and he has yet to practice this week, as tweeted by team beat writer Joe Person. While there is certainly a chance he will be healthy enough to play, Williams may be limited in action.

He may miss the game altogether, though, and that would be a huge boon for Stewart and his fantasy owners. Mike Tolbert is also dealing with injury, per Person, which would make Stewart the de facto workhorse against a defense that has given up 23.5 points per game to opposing running backs thus far this year.

Stewart hasn't quite gotten things rolling yet in 2014—he is averaging an awful 2.4 yards per carry this season, though he scored a touchdown with Williams absent last week—but a full workload should more than offset a potential lack of efficiency.

Fantasy Prediction: 19 attempts, 80 yards, one TD; three receptions, 25 yards, 0 TD

Final Verdict: A confluence of opportunity and a good matchup make Stewart a nice option for Week 3.

Depends: Knile Davis, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

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This one is really contingent on the latest Jamaal Charles news come Sunday morning.

The Kansas City running back was knocked out of the game last week and diagnosed with a high ankle sprain, at least according to head coach Andy Reid. Charles surprised the football world this week when word broke he was practicing, per ESPN.com's Adam Teicher.

Granted, he was limited at practice, but that is a highly encouraging sign for him and his fantasy owners. He might get on the field this week, which would be bad news for anyone who spent big money on his backup, Knile Davis.

It's worth starting Davis if Charles is indeed out, but don't be tempted to start him if Charles is active. Even if Davis gets half the carries, he is going up against a Miami Dolphins defense that has given up just 15.5 points per game to running backs thus far.

Without the heavy workload, Davis might not be fantasy-relevant this weekend.

Fantasy Prediction: 10 attempts, 40 yards, 0 TD; one reception, 10 yards, 0 TD

Final Verdict: Keep an eye on Charles' situation and react accordingly this Sunday.

Start: Toby Gerhart, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Michael Perez/Associated Press

It will take some stones to insert Toby Gerhart into your lineup after his disastrous start to the season, but now is the time to do it.

The Indianapolis Colts are currently allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs on the year. Granted, LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles had a lot to do with that in Week 2.

Gerhart isn't quite the nimble back those two are, but he can still do damage against Indy.

The big back will see plenty of touches, and the Colts have a leaner defensive front than Washington, his Week 2 opponent. The biggest concern is the ankle injury he suffered in Week 1, which tempers expectations a bit.

Fantasy Prediction: 21 attempts, 85 yards, one TD; two receptions, 15 yards, 0 TD

Final Verdict: A good matchup will cure Gerhart's fantasy ills this weekend. That or he is really dead to fantasy owners.

Flex Only: Matt Asiata, RB, Minnesota Vikings

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

Fantasy owners were vindicated in their Matt Asiata gambles last week when he caught a 25-yard touchdown pass early against the New England Patriots.

This week, they might not be so lucky.

Outside of that touchdown reception, the Minnesota Vikings running back had a rather lackluster Sunday. He averaged just 2.8 yards per carry, and that touchdown really saved what would have been a poor week otherwise.

As Asiata indicated to Dane Mizutani of the Pioneer Press, he's just "the next man up":

"

I'm confident. Nothing is going to change in my attitude. I'm the next man up, and I'm going to go out and just play. ...

... It's a big opportunity. I've got big shoes to fill. I'm not going to replace AD. I'm going to go out there and showcase my talent and help the team win games.

"

The "next man up" after Asiata is the freakishly athletic Jerick McKinnon, who is raring to go behind him. The rookie out of Georgia Southern hasn't been a big part of the offense in the first couple of weeks, but he could see an increase in playing time this week.

Vikings beat writer Chris Tomasson tweeted that Minnesota may ride the hot hand this weekend, and McKinnon has the athleticism and the ability to go from room temperature to boiling in an instant.

All that to say, Asiata's market share might be shrinking, and he isn't exactly an explosive contributor. He is worth starting because he should still get close to 20 touches, but his value is highly dependent on whether he scores or not.

Fantasy Prediction: 16 attempts, 50 yards, 0 TD; two receptions, 20 yards, 0 TD

Final Verdict: Cash out while you're still ahead.

Start: Greg Jennings, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

Last week was a miserable one for Greg Jennings and that Minnesota offense.

Stranded on Revis Island, the Vikings receiver amassed just one reception for four measly yards. His poor output wasn't for lack of trying, however: Quarterback Matt Cassel targeted Jennings four times, including a near-touchdown that failed when he couldn't get both feet down with the ball.

Fortunately for Jennings and his fantasy owners, Darrelle Revis does not play for the New Orleans Saints, Minnesota's opponent this week.

The Saints are an offensive machine at home, which means the Vikings could be down big early. The over/under on the matchup is 49, and the Saints are favored by 10.5 points.

Cassel might be putting the ball up 35-40 times this week if Vegas is reading things right, and Jennings will be a big beneficiary.

Fantasy Prediction: six receptions, 95 yards, one TD

Final Verdict: Jennings has a nice matchup, and his team will more than likely fall behind big.

Flex Only: Wes Welker, WR, Denver Broncos

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Wes Welker is set to make his 2014 season debut after his return from suspension, and it couldn't come in a worse matchup.

The Denver Broncos receiver squares off with the same Seattle Seahawks defense that held his team to just eight points in the Super Bowl. Welker did have eight receptions for 84 yards in that game, a nice total in points-per-reception (PPR) formats.

This is Welker's first action, however, and the Seattle defense turns it up to 12 at home. The Broncos might try to chip their way down the field, which would mean shallow routes and screens for Welker.

In standard-scoring formats, Welker may be barely worth starting. He should see plenty of targets, however, which will lead to a decent day in PPR leagues.

Fantasy Prediction: seven receptions, 60 yards, 0 TD

Final Verdict: Greet Welker with a lukewarm hug and a spot in your lineup if you must, but don't expect a huge fantasy day for the Broncos receiver on the road in Seattle.

Start: Geno Smith, QB, New York Jets

Tom Lynn/Associated Press

The Timeout Heard 'Round the World prevented quarterback Geno Smith from having a fantastic Week 2 output against the Green Bay Packers. Instead, it was merely a nice showing.

Smith ran for a score and threw another as the New York Jets nearly upset the Pack at Lambeau Field. Alas, a 21-3 lead melted away in a hail of Aaron Rodgers passes and poor offensive execution.

This week, the Jets are at home against the Chicago Bears, whose defense is starting to resemble a M.A.S.H. unit.

Cornerback Charles Tillman is out for the year—and per Patrick Finley of the Chicago Sun-Times, perhaps might need to call it a career at 33, sadly—with a torn triceps, and defensive tackle Jeremiah Ratliff and safety Chris Conte were knocked out of last week's game as well.

Of course, Smith might be missing a big piece of his arsenal too: Wide receiver Eric Decker is dealing with a hamstring injury that knocked him out of last week's game, and he hasn't been able to practice thus far, per Newsday's Kimberley A. Martin.

Hopefully, Decker will be able to go with an extra day of rest, given the Jets play Monday night. Even if he doesn't, Smith's running ability will be a huge factor.

The Bears may have intercepted 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick three times last week en route to an improbable road victory, but they are still giving up the 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks through two games.

Fantasy Prediction: 20-of-31, 200 yards, two TD, one INT; 45 rushing yards, 0 rushing TD

Final Verdict: Smith has a pretty good matchup at home, and he is quietly a weekly threat with his legs. He could well crack the top 10 in scoring this week, especially if Decker goes.

Sit: Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Devastation turned to triumph in Washington last week when Robert Griffin III's ankle injury led to a Kirk Cousins gem.

Griffin had what turned out to be a dislocated ankle without a fracture, as tweeted by ESPN medical expert Dr. Mark Adickes, which may keep him out several weeks as opposed to the initially feared season-ending diagnosis. In the meantime, however, Cousins will man the offense.

Whether he will continue the success he saw last week, however, is another matter entirely.

While Cousins has been erratic in his short career with Washington, he does take his share of shots down the field, as noted by Matt Pallister of The Washington Times:

"

In Jay Gruden's offense, the difference between Cousins and RG3 was evident on Cousins' first pass Sunday — a 20-yard touchdown to Darrel Young. Cousins is not afraid to throw the ball down the field. That mentality may hurt him against good defenses, but it also gives the Redskins something they haven't had with RG3 since 2012 — the opportunity to make big plays.

"

Still, Cousins' inconsistency is troubling, especially against a surprisingly stout defense in the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Eagles seemed like pushovers on defense after the Jacksonville Jaguars raced to a 17-0 lead in Week 1. Since that first half, however, the Eagles have allowed just 271 passing yards in 1.5 games, though Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck did throw three touchdowns.

Philadelphia can be a hostile environment, and the Eagles will be better prepared than the Jaguars were when Cousins was unexpectedly thrown at them.

Fantasy Prediction: 23-of-37, 215 yards, one TD, 1 INT; 25 rushing yards, 0 rushing TD

Final Verdict: Cousins may have plenty of opportunities to throw if Washington falls behind early, but the Eagles may be too tough on the road for him to have a big fantasy day.

Start: Jared Cook, TE, St. Louis Rams

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

Do you smell that?

That's the annual Jared Cook Tease Game coming this week courtesy of the general Dallas Cowboys defense. Delanie Walker had 142 receiving yards and a touchdown last week, narrowly missing out on a second touchdown on a diving attempt in the end zone.

A week before that, 49ers tight end Vernon Davis scored a pair of touchdowns himself.

Injuries have ravaged that Dallas defense, leaving it with a linebacker corps that has trouble against athletic tight ends. Cook fits that bill, and he figures to be a big part of the St. Louis game plan if the Rams have been paying attention.

Fantasy Prediction: seven receptions, 95 yards, one TD

Final Verdict: Cook's best opportunity for a big game this season might be this week. Take advantage if you need someone to fill in.

Sit: Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers

Tim Sharp/Associated Press

The San Francisco 49ers fell into a funk last week, particularly on offense.

An early exit for tight end Davis might have been the biggest culprit in the team's offensive woes. Davis is quarterback Colin Kaepernick's best weapon, after all, at least in the passing game.

Davis has been nursing that injury all week, and there is legitimate concern about his availability this Sunday. He has yet to practice this week, and there is strong indication that rookie Derek Carrier, who had a big reception last week, will get the starting nod, per Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee.

This is a similar situation to Brandon Marshall's last week, given the 49ers play in the afternoon block of games. Don't get suckered into starting Davis just because Marshall went off, though; he could just as easily sit out.

Even if he suits up, Davis might be little more than a decoy.

Fantasy Prediction: two receptions, 20 yards, 0 TD

Final Verdict: Davis is injured, and he may not play this week. Better to find an alternative now before it's too late.

All fantasy statistics courtesy of FFToday.com. All betting lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.

Follow @AlexMiglio