College Football Week 4 Predictions: Picking Top-25 Games Against the Spread
Every underdog has its day—or in this instance, week—and Week 3 was a celebration of the little guys. Size and expectations for these teams varied greatly in nature, although the overall performances were noteworthy.
The underdog covered the spread in 12 of the 18 games featuring Top 25 teams. In a few of these matchups, these teams—Boston College, East Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia—did much more than simply cover the spread.
What do underdogs have in store for an encore? Week 4 is here, as is our weekly feature where we pick each matchup featuring a team from the AP Top 25.
We don’t just predict a winner and loser—that would be incredibly boring. Instead, all games are handicapped with the point spreads in mind. (Texas A&M and SMU, for example, requires this number for the sake of making it watchable. Even then it might not be enough.)
After a respectable 10-8 showing in Week 3, we’re hoping to add more winners this time around.
That movement begins...now.
All spreads are courtesy of Odds Shark unless noted otherwise.
No. 24 Nebraska vs. Miami
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The Line: Nebraska (-7)
Both teams, despite their perceived struggles, have had a fair amount of recent success against the spread. Miami has covered in nine of its last 11. Nebraska has covered in four of its past six.
The most glaring of all these games, however, is unquestionably the Cornhusker’s near loss to McNeese State as a 35.5-point favorite just a few weeks ago. Although that game was a struggle, Nebraska has looked the part of a Top 25 team in its other matchups.
There are legitimate concerns to stress with Bo Pelini’s squad, but home-field advantage is significant in this game. With Miami QB Brad Kaaya getting only his second road start, it’s reasonable to believe the Hurricanes offense may struggle some, especially early. For that reason, I’m laying the points and backing the home favorite.
The Pick: Nebraska (-7)
No. 21 BYU vs. Virginia
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The Line: BYU (-14)
Let’s go back to last year, when Virginia beat BYU at home in one of the stranger results of the entire season. Changing venues, the Cavaliers—coming off an impressive home victory against Louisville—will now head to Provo with two touchdowns.
Stretching back into last season, Virginia has now covered the spread in its last five games. BYU, meanwhile, has covered the spread just twice in its last eight matchups. As a home favorite, however, the Cougars are 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five.
Timing on this game is everything. Virginia undoubtedly enjoyed its victory last week—as it should—although the long road trip brings serious letdown potential. With Mike London’s group still struggling to score points, it feels like the home team has the edge.
The Pick: BYU (-14)
No. 18 Missouri vs. Indiana
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The Line: Missouri (-13.5)
Outside of Auburn, few teams have been more profitable to bettors than Missouri over the course of the past year and change. The Tigers, stretching back through 2013, are now 14-3 against the spread in their last 17 games. After not covering in Week 1, they’ve gotten back on track over the past few weeks.
But Week 4 presents an intriguing scenario for Gary Pinkel’s team. With an enormous matchup at South Carolina on deck, it’s not unreasonable to assume that Indiana—despite its lackluster start; perhaps that’s being kind—could score enough points to keep this one closer than many believe.
The Hoosiers don’t get the win, but they take advantage of Steve Spurrier looming in the distance.
The Pick: Indiana (+13.5)
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
No. 14 South Carolina at Vanderbilt
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The Line: South Carolina (-21.5)
Through three games, Vanderbilt has thrown for one offensive touchdown and scored only three overall. The three quarterbacks—and yes, the Commodores have played three—have thrown for a total of 434 yards. Vandy, and this should be implied, has not covered a spread this season.
At the very least—we’re digging for good news—this week’s opponent might be deprived of motivation. South Carolina upset Georgia in Week 3 at home and will take welcome Missouri to town next week in a critical SEC East matchup.
Hello, sandwich game.
Although it doesn’t feel particularly good backing a team that has shown very little, South Carolina has little reason to show up on Saturday. Gamecocks win, but by slightly less than the spread.
The Pick: Vanderbilt (+21.5)
No. 8 LSU vs. Mississippi State
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The Line: LSU (-9.5)
For whatever reason, the game seems to be garnering limited buzz. Given what it will tell us about two fascinating teams in the SEC, that’s a bit surprising.
The Tigers have covered in their last four games against the Bulldogs. From an SEC standpoint, however, LSU has covered just three times in the last 10 games. Mississippi State has covered three out of its last four SEC games and seven of the last eight overall.
Offense could be at a premium here, even with intriguing pieces on both sidelines. And although the talent advantage is likely working in the home team’s favor, Mississippi State should keep this close enough. The spread just seems a little too high.
The Pick: Mississippi State (+9.5)
No. 5 Auburn at No. 20 Kansas State
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The Line: Auburn (-9)
It has officially been more than one full calendar year since Auburn last lost against the spread. In football time, the Tigers’ covering streak has reached 13 games. That is, quite simply, remarkable.
At the very least, Manhattan, Kansas is poised to jeopardize this impressive run. Although Kansas State has nowhere near the overall talent as its opponent, it does have perhaps the best game-planner on the planet in Bill Snyder. The Wildcats have also covered in 15 of their last 23 matchups at home.
With Auburn hitting the road for the first time, the underdog feels live. That’s a dangerous stance to take given the results over the past year, although K-State is poised to keep this close enough.
The Pick: Kansas State (+9)
No. 4 Oklahoma at West Virginia
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The Line: Oklahoma (-7.5)
This is a horrendous week to be a couch in Morgantown, West Virginia. If you are a fabric-covered seating device, begin taking the proper measures. Win or lose, it's probably too late for you.
From a Vegas standpoint, this is the most interesting game on the card. Oklahoma opened as an 11-point favorite, although that spread was quickly bet down.
Is the value all but sucked out of the underdog? Or is the early line movement a sign of the results to follow?
Both teams are hot against the spread. The Mountaineers have covered each game this year, while the Sooners have covered six of their last seven going back to 2013. Something has to give, and it will likely be one of a few thousand couches when West Virginia comes close to pulling off the upset.
The Pick: West Virginia (+7.5)
No. 3 Alabama vs. Florida
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The Line: Alabama (-14.5)
Under Nick Saban, Alabama—despite dealing with enormous point spreads—has covered with impressive regularity. In the past five games, however, Alabama has failed to cover once. Still, in the past eight matchups against Florida, Alabama has covered against the Gators seven times.
Florida comes into this game having just snuck by Kentucky in three overtimes as a 17.5-point favorite. Although Will Muschamp has a defense that could give Saban fits, offense—even with a new system and OC—remains the question.
How much did Alabama solve over the past few weeks? And was the sluggish opening win against West Virginia a much better victory than we originally thought?
I’ll go with “plenty” and “yes” for my answers.
The Pick: Alabama (-14.5)
No. 2 Oregon at Washington State
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The Line: Oregon (-23.5)
It looks too easy, doesn’t it? Given Washington State’s early struggles, 23.5 points—even at home—doesn’t feel like nearly enough points to make you want to take the plunge.
Although the Ducks have not been the same covering machine of late—besting the spread just twice in their last six games—they have covered in 11 of their last 14 games on the road. Washington State just earned its first cover of 2014 in Week 3, although it came against Portland State as a 23.5-point favorite.
Everyone will likely be on Oregon here, which is typically not the place to be. But in the instance—a game in which the Ducks scored 62 points in a season ago—I’ll gladly join the crowd and back the big road favorite.
The Pick: Oregon (-23.5)
No. 1 Florida State vs. No. 22 Clemson
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The Line: Florida State (-20)
Yes, Jameis Winston is out of the first half. Let’s get the obvious out of the way as we address an interesting game that picked up some intrigue as news of the quarterback’s punishment broke on Wednesday.
This decision prompted Florida State to crash from a 20.5-point favorite to a 16.5-point favorite once the game was reposted in Vegas. Even with Sean Maguire penciled to start the first two quarters at QB for the Seminoles, the line is still robust given the circumstances.
In terms of recent history, FSU has covered in 14 of its past 19 games at home. Combating this impressive number will be one on Clemson’s side: The Tigers are 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games on the road.
What do we make of a strange and somewhat difficult handicapping situation? Take the points, bank on defense—both of which are pretty talented—and expect a low-scoring, closer matchup than what we saw last year.
The Pick: Clemson (+16.5)
Other Top-25 Games
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No. 6 Texas A&M (-32) at SMU
I know Texas A&M will be on the road. I know the Aggies are probably thinking about Arkansas in Week 5. I know that their starters will be out of this game early. And yet I really can’t back SMU here despite an absurd amount of points being given to the home team.
The Pick: Texas A&M (-32)
No. 11 Michigan State (-45.5) vs. Eastern Michigan
Eastern Michigan just lost to Old Dominion 17-3. The week prior, the Eagles lost to Florida 65-0. Let’s set the over/under on points scored by EMU at .5, bet the under and back Sparty.
The Pick: Michigan State (-45.5)
No. 13 Georgia (-40) vs. Troy
What does Troy have up its sleeve to stop Todd Gurley? The answer, unfortunately for Troy, is not a brick wall. With Georgia’s SEC slate picking back up next week, however, the Bulldogs take their football off the pedal early and only win by 35.
The Pick: Troy (+40)
No. 19 Wisconsin (-26.5) vs. Bowling Green
The Falcons, having just knocked off Indiana, are looking for another B1G victory. Camp Randall is another animal entirely, though. Wisconsin, fresh off a bye, wins big and runs wild.
The Pick: Wisconsin (-26.5)
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
