NFL Week 3 Picks: Latest Predictions for Updated Spreads

If there was ever any doubt in your mind how unpredictable the NFL is, just look at what happened in Week 2. As teams now try to carry their momentum or forget the past, depending on the results, the intensity is set to pick up with teams fighting to prove themselves. 

Even though three weeks isn't going to make a season, it is enough to break one. A team like the New Orleans Saints, thought to have Super Bowl aspirations, has proven all the skeptics who said they can't win on the road correct. 

While predictions are an easy way to lose your mind, it's a daunting task that we have undertaken so that you know what to expect from this week's slate of games. Here are our thoughts for Week 3 of the 2014 NFL season. 

Matchup	Prediction
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-6)	Falcons, 28-17
San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-1)	Chargers, 27-17
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)	Bengals, 24-17
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (Pick 'Em)	Browns, 24-20
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-1)	Packers, 31-27
Indianapolis Colts (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars	Colts, 30-13
Oakland Raiders at New England Patriots (-16)	Patriots, 34-14
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-10.5)	Saints, 41-20
Houston Texans (-1) at New York Giants	Texans, 23-10
Washington at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)	Eagles, 28-21
Dallas Cowboys at St. Louis Rams (Pick 'Em)	Cowboys, 24-14
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (NL)	49ers, 28-24
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins (-4.5)	Dolphins, 23-20
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5)	Broncos, 28-20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3)	Panthers, 23-21
Chicago Bears at New York Jets (-2.5)	Bears, 28-24

Upset Predictions

San Diego Chargers (+1) at Buffalo Bills

Donald Miralle/Getty Images

This is the hardest game of the weekend to predict because San Diego plays the role Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde so often that trying to find any rhyme or reason to the Chargers success is going to leave you pulling out your hair. 

For instance, the Chargers couldn't execute at all in the fourth quarter at Arizona in Week 1. But in Week 2 against the Seattle Seahawks at home, the Chargers scored 30 points, the first time Seattle's defense had allowed that many since Week 5 at Indianapolis last year. 

The most impressive part of San Diego's Week 2 win was the methodical way it carved up the defense. Richard Sherman didn't get exposed like Keenan Allen claims, but the rest of the group couldn't do anything to get off the field. They were on the field for more than 42 minutes and allowed 377 yards. 

It was also nice to see the revival of Antonio Gates' career with three touchdown catches. According to Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus, the Chargers' tight end was nearly perfect with seven catches, 96 yards and those three touchdowns on seven targets. 

On the other side of the field, Buffalo's surprising start has folks in northern New York ready to party. The running game has been outstanding with 306 yards through two games and a bend-don't-break secondary that has given up 551 passing yards. 

The Bills' defense has been stout against the run with 166 yards allowed through two games. Sammy Watkins also joined rare company with his performance against Miami, according to ESPN Stats & Info:

San Diego losing Ryan Mathews for 4-5 weeks with a knee injury does hinder the running game, though he was hardly effective with 3.1 yards per carry this season. The Chargers have big-play capability on offense with Rivers, Allen and Gates. 

EJ Manuel will have to make a few plays to keep up with the Chargers' offense. Even with the trip across the country and an early start time, San Diego's still the better team and ready to take a step forward after a Week 1 hiccup. 

Prediction: Chargers 27, Bills 17

Green Bay Packers (+1) at Detroit Lions

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

In two games, the Packers haven't looked much different from the team that was barely over .500 last season and had to sneak into the postseason. You can forgive losing at Seattle in Week 1, but they were down 21-3 in the second quarter against the Jets before a second-half rally gave them a 31-24 win. 

The Lions continue to be an enigma, though that's likely our fault for looking at the raw talent all the time instead of the results on the field. They looked good against a bad New York Giants team in Week 1, but they had no answers offensively at Carolina in Week 2.

So in the battle of two teams we think should be better than they are, who do we go with? Well, author Rob Reischel has a stat that can mean everything:

These two teams are very similar, though the Lions are better equipped to rush the passer with their defensive line. 

However, Detroit's offense remains an unbalanced mess. The Lions are averaging 73 yards per game on the ground, while Matthew Stafford has thrown 80 passes in two games. 

The Packers found their rhythm on offense after the debacle in Seattle. Specifically, Aaron Rodgers got back on track with 346 yards and three touchdowns. Jordy Nelson had a game Calvin Johnson would envy with nine receptions for 209 yards and one touchdown. 

Green Bay's ground game hasn't taken off like analysts expected. Eddie Lacy is averaging a disappointing 3.1 yards per carry through two games. With a lot of passing coming this week, it comes down to which quarterback you trust more in the fourth quarter. 

Stafford has the best weapon with Megatron, but Rogers has a deeper stable with Nelson, Randall Cobb and Andrew Quarless. It will be a close battle with the Packers eking out a win late. 

Prediction: Packers 31, Lions 27

Denver Broncos (+5) at Seattle Seahawks

Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

Playing the team that embarrassed him in the Super Bowl seven months ago, Peyton Manning enters a game as an underdog for the first time in what feels like years. He also has to contend with a Seattle team that will be angry after last week's loss and playing in front of a raucous home crowd. 

However, we did see that there is a weak spot in Seattle's defense from that loss in San Diego. Pete Carroll put a linebacker on Antonio Gates the entire game, which resulted in three touchdown catches from Rivers and this tweet from ESPN's Ed Werder:

Looking at recent trends in games doesn't give the Broncos much of an edge. Jason McIntyre of The Big Lead tweeted this stat about Denver's performance in its last six quarters:

So what's to like about the Broncos this week?

In addition to the matchup of Julius Thomas against a linebacker, Manning isn't an idiot. I would be willing to bet no one poured over more footage of that Super Bowl than the future Hall of Famer, examining Seattle's coverage and schemes. 

The Seahawks also tipped their hand to success in the Super Bowl when Sherman told Robert Klemko of TheMMQB.com that they knew Manning's signals. He's not going into this game using the same calls again, though he might use some of the same terms to bait Seattle's defense. 

It's also hard to know where Seattle's offense is at right now. Marshawn Lynch looked like a beast in Week 1 with 110 rushing yards and two touchdowns, but he had no time to do anything against San Diego because the Chargers controlled the ball so long. 

The Broncos rebuilt their defense this offseason with the goal of keeping up with the more physical teams in the NFC, specifically Seattle. This is the litmus test they will be judged by the rest of the year, so anything short of a victory will be considered a disappointment. 

Prediction: Broncos 28, Seahawks 20

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