2014 Non-Tournament Teams That Will Make the 'Big Dance' This Season

Once the confetti settles at the Final Four and a new national champion is crowned, every college basketball team heads back to the drawing board. Those that didn't reach the NCAA tournament have likely been there for weeks already.

Change is the only constant in sports, and that goes for the field of 68 as well. When seniors and transfers are done bolting and freshmen and other transfers finish arriving, teams both in and out of the just-concluded tournament can find themselves totally unrecognizable.

Earning one bid is hard, and starting a string takes a blend of luck and talent that not many programs can bank on year to year. Hence, spots come open when tournament teams can't adequately regroup.

The following 10 teams didn't quite earn their golden tickets last season for a variety of reasons. Through other teams' attrition and their own additions, all look good to reach the field this season.

Of course, only the season will tell the tale.

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Arkansas Razorbacks

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So many of the teams on our list could have actually made the 2014 tournament if not for puzzling late losses. Arkansas perhaps typifies that better than anyone.

The Razorbacks were on a roll late in the season, rattling off six straight victories, including their second overtime win over Kentucky—this one at Rupp Arena. After blowing out Ole Miss 110-80, the Hogs merely needed to handle their business at Alabama. A 25-point loss ended their regular season on a sour note, but surely Arkansas could start an SEC tournament run by stomping lowly South Carolina, right?

Wrong. The Hogs were shunted off to the NIT after that brief cameo.

While five seniors are gone, that just means that the uber-deep Razorbacks return seven players who averaged at least nine minutes per game in coach Mike Anderson's high-pressure system. That includes second-team All-SEC performer Bobby Portis, hyper-athletic Michael Qualls and shooting guard Ky Madden, who emerged as one of the SEC's more efficient scorers last year.

Point guard play was an issue last year, and a pair of newcomers will try to shore up that position. If freshman Anton Beard—a 4-star recruit per ESPN—or 247Sports top-25 junior college transfer Jabril Durham turns out to be the real deal, expect the Hogs to avoid those shaky losses and find the safe side of the bubble next March.

Florida Gulf Coast Eagles

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Conference realignment has been very, very good to Florida Gulf Coast.

While Mercer was set to lose a large senior class from the crew that upset Duke, coach Bob Hoffman is always a threat to cobble together a solid roster on short notice. Now, however, he'll be doing it in the Southern Conference instead of the Atlantic Sun. East Tennessee State is also headed to the SoCon after a fourth-place finish in 2013-14.

The Eagles, meanwhile, are still reaping the benefits of the epic #DunkCity Sweet 16 run of 2013. FGCU is fast becoming the Southeast's mid-major version of an Iowa State or Oregon, a priority destination for transfers who may not have gotten a chance in a power conference.

All-conference first-team guards Brett Comer and Bernard Thompson will be supplemented by a host of players who began their college careers elsewhere.

Wing Jamail Jones (ex-Marquette) and center Nate Hicks, late of Georgia Tech, are the Eagles' top two returning rebounders. Junior Julian DeBose racked up 10.4 points and 4.3 rebounds per game for Rice in 2012-13. Athletic power forward Demetris Morant is immediately eligible after coming in from UNLV.

Low-post scoring is likely a problem, and so is finding a suitable backup to give Comer a rest. Still, there isn't a team in the A-Sun equipped to stop Gulf Coast over the course of the regular season. From there, it'll be up to the Eagles to avoid a fatal letdown in the conference tournament.

Florida State Seminoles

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From 2009 through 2012, Florida State rode into the NCAA tournament on the back of a defense that never ranked lower than 13th in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy.

Two seasons ago, the wheels completely fell off of that chariot as the Seminoles slumped to 190th nationwide. The repair process began last season, but fell just short of its goal, as FSU had to settle for a No. 1 seed in the NIT.

This season's defense still isn't likely to regain the past glories of those Bernard James/Michael Snaer teams, but with three 7-footers on the roster, the Noles should be hard to drive on. It's on offense that this Seminole team will separate itself from those of past years.

FSU's backcourt could be one of the ACC's deepest, with potential all-conference selection Aaron Thomas first in line. Junior Devon Bookert should inherit the departed Ian Miller's mantle as the team's top sniper, and he'll be supplemented by talented redshirt freshman Xavier Rathan-Mayes. Wing Montay Brandon was an inconsistent scorer all season, but he averaged 5.2 rebounds per game over his final 10.

Most important of all could be JUCO point guard Dayshawn Watkins, who may battle Bookert for a starting role. Listed at 6'0" (which means he could be up to three inches shorter in real life), Watkins doesn't have the size of FSU's other guards, but he's a quick, shifty penetrator who could make a lot of drive-and-dish plays look easy.

Last year's offense was the second best of coach Leonard Hamilton's FSU tenure according to KenPom. This year's could be even better, and if it is, the Noles are well-equipped to end the two-year tourney drought.

Georgetown Hoyas

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With so much individual talent (Doug McDermott, Bryce Cotton, Semaj Christon and JaKarr Sampson being the biggest names) now departed, projecting the 2014-15 Big East season feels like a crapshoot outside of the prohibitive favorites at Villanova.

No team personifies the hit-or-miss nature of this year's predictions better than Georgetown. The Hoyas will miss second-leading scorer Markel Starks and yeoman forward Nate Lubick.

Two factors, however, lead to optimism that those capable hands can be replaced. One is the presence of Big East Player of the Year candidate D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera. DSR is likely to replace Starks at the point this season, giving him tremendous input into the flow of the Georgetown offense. At 6'3" and a muscular 215 pounds, he's a difficult matchup for most mortal floor generals.

The other cause for optimism stems from a pair of talented freshman forwards that may see extended minutes immediately. Isaac Copeland and Paul White headline a recruiting class ranked No. 11 in the nation by the 247Sports composite. Copeland in particular has the required shooting range to make an immediate impact on the wing. White will provide mid-range scoring and tenacious work on the glass.

Relying on freshmen is not always an exact science, but between Smith-Rivera and seniors Jabril Trawick and Mikael Hopkins, there's still a solid amount of experience on hand. And that's not even mentioning senior center Josh Smith, who can still salvage one dominant season out of a disappointing career if he keeps his weight in check and his grades on track.

Georgetown should make the Big Dance even if Smith's head isn't on straight or one of the freshmen disappoints. If they all produce to their capabilities, however, the Hoyas could go a step or two further.

Georgia State Panthers

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Like Florida Gulf Coast, Georgia State was relegated to the NIT after falling one win short in its conference tournament. The Panthers fell to a Louisiana-Lafayette team led by eventual first-round draft pick Elfrid Payton.

This season, Payton's gone. So is perennial gadfly Western Kentucky, which left the Sun Belt for Conference USA. GSU will miss double-figure scorers Manny Atkins and Devonta White, but it still boasts one of America's most underrated backcourts.

The duo of Ryan Harrow and R.J. Hunter was all over the Sun Belt's final leaderboards last season. Harrow ranked in the top six in points, assists and steals, while Hunter finished fourth in scoring, second in steals and even eighth in blocks.

The Panthers should also see solid contributions from vicious rebounder and rim-protector Curtis Washington (10.4 boards and 4.2 blocks per 40 minutes last season) and Louisville transfer Kevin Ware, who would love to generate some more highlights to make people remember that he's more than just a gruesomely broken leg.

Again, like FGCU, Georgia State doesn't appear to have any serious challengers in the Sun Belt. Due to the boneheaded policy of awarding precious tournament bids to whoever gets hot for four days, however, the Panthers have to keep the throttle down all the way through March if they want to prove worthy of the "best mid-major" hype they're receiving heading into this campaign.

Illinois Fighting Illini

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The month of January was a particularly cold one for basketball fans in Champaign, Illinois. The Fighting Illini torpedoed their season that month with an eight-game losing streak, the defeats coming by an average margin of 11.1 points per game. They included losses to postseason wallflowers Northwestern, Indiana and Purdue, the latter coming at home.

So what's changed this season? A lot and a little, all at the same time.

From last season's team, the Illini lose only wings Joseph Bertrand and Jon Ekey, but the major story lies in the talent becoming available. Guards Ahmad Starks, last seen at Oregon State, and Aaron Cosby (ex-Seton Hall) are finally eligible after their year in residence, and both will provide a major shooting upgrade for a team that last year couldn't hit water while falling out of the proverbial boat.

Starks and Cosby will also be important for their playmaking skills following the torn ACL to incumbent point guard Tracy Abrams. While neither is the distributor or defender that Abrams is, the hope is that Illinois can finally score enough points to take the pressure off of every stop.

All-Big Ten wing Rayvonte Rice is still on hand, as is veteran center Nnanna Egwu, but the underclassmen may be the most important factors.

Sophomores Kendrick Nunn and Malcolm Hill became starters late in the season and helped the team to a 7-5 finish. The Illini were 5-2 in games in which Nunn started and scored in double figures.

Freshman Leron Black (No. 43 in the 247Sports composite) is a tremendous athlete and tenacious rebounder who should help the Illini get some easy points on the offensive glass and at the foul line, a place they frequently feared to tread last year.

Compared to other teams in the Big Ten, Illinois' talent loss was relatively minor and well-remedied. Even programs like Michigan State and Michigan—though they'll still be plenty dangerous—can't claim they filled all their holes as effectively as the Illini appear to have done.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

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Conference realignment both gaveth and tooketh away from Conference USA this season. (Somehow, I'm doubting those are real words, but we'll go with it. Moving on.) Out go East Carolina, Tulane and Tulsa, bound for the American. In comes Western Kentucky from the Sun Belt.

And a nation collectively yawns. After all, this isn't Louisville to the ACC we're talking about here.

For Louisiana Tech, these changes came a year late, as Tulsa tripped the Bulldogs at the final hurdle to capture the C-USA automatic bid last March. A Tech team that plays an exciting, high-pressure brand of basketball will still enter this season as a favorite, but there's still an air of "what might have been" about last season.

Approximately 45 points per game walked out the door with four departed seniors and two transfers, but the Dogs still return guards Speedy Smith, Alex Hamilton and Raheem Appleby. Smith finished second in the nation in assists and 10th in steals, and he'll own both school records by the time he's through.

Hamilton and Appleby are both potential all-conference scorers if they become more judicious with their shot selection from behind the arc. They hit a combined 29 percent from deep on nearly six attempts per game.

Forward Michale Kyser, who's led the WAC and C-USA in blocks in successive seasons, returns to protect the rim and allow his guards to gamble for steals.

Newcomers such as Murray State transfer Erik McCree and freshmen Joniah White and Jacobi Boykins may have to play supporting roles immediately, but coach Michael White shouldn't have much trouble recruiting players for a fun, wide-open system like this one.

Miami Hurricanes

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The Miami Hurricanes weren't exactly running a gale-force offense last season. More like a gentle summer breeze, as the Canes ranked dead last in Pomeroy's adjusted tempo standings.

Coach Jim Larranaga did a masterful job to even craft a winning season from a roster that lost nearly all of its key contributors from the 2013 ACC championship team. There's still more fluctuation this season, with three starters graduating, but the Canes will also integrate an extremely intriguing set of newcomers.

Big 12 transfers Sheldon McClellan (Texas) and Angel Rodriguez (Kansas State) should both slot into immediate starting roles. Both have been through a power-conference grind and seen the NCAA tournament on the other side, experience that will come in very handy.

Junior college transfer Ivan Cruz Uceda could likewise slot in at power forward, giving the Canes some of the rebounding that they lost with Donnavan Kirk's departure. Same with Niagara transfer Joe Thomas.

True freshmen Ja'Quan Newton, James Palmer and Omar Sherman should all see minutes, along with redshirt Deandre Burnett. Newton is a 247Sports top-50 recruit, while Burnett isn't far removed from averaging 37 points per game as a high school senior.

The only returnees that will see any minutes at all are junior center Tonye Jekiri and presumptive backup point guard Manu Lecomte. So Larranaga has an absurd number of new pieces to put together. They are, however, somewhat more talented than the ones who've left.

SMU Mustangs

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SMU was one of the most notable snubs on Selection Sunday 2014, done in by a terrible nonconference schedule and a league whose bottom half was nearly as bad.

While the American hasn't done much to upgrade itself—there's absolutely no way to spin East Carolina/Tulane/Tulsa for Louisville as a winning trade for the AAC—the Mustangs are out to ensure that the committee can't overlook them again for a lack of quality opponents outside their conference.

True road games at Gonzaga and Indiana start the season off in some style, then Arkansas and Mountain West dark horse Wyoming journey to Dallas. The Mustangs will add a second Big Ten road game when they take on Michigan in Ann Arbor just before Christmas.

Hopefully, this will earn coach Larry Brown's talented cast some of the shine it richly deserves. Point guard Nic Moore and power forward Markus Kennedy are easily the American's best returning inside-outside duo, and the two juniors are still augmented by a host of talented supporting pieces.

Big men Cannen Cunningham and Yanick Moreira—the latter fresh off a stellar performance for Angola in the FIBA World Cup—will help Kennedy protect the rim and clean the glass. Sophomore forward Ben Moore is also a strong offensive rebounder and mid-range scorer off the bench.

In the backcourt, former McDonald's All-American Keith Frazier may win the starting job next to Nic Moore. Frazier played only 14.8 minutes per game in a puzzling freshman year, but he did shoot one basket shy of 40 percent from three-point land. Graduate transfer Justin Martin was another solid shooter for Xavier, and he'll likely earn a starting wing position.

The Mustangs likely aren't a preseason Top 10 team without stud recruit Emmanuel Mudiay, but they're still very comfortably in the Top 20. Don't expect them to fall too far unless those ambitious nonconference games trip them up. If that happens, there aren't many signature wins to be had in the American.

Utah Utes

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Like SMU, Utah absolutely phoned in its nonconference schedule last season. Beating things called Evergreen State and St. Katherine don't curry any favor with the selection committee, and the likes of Grand Canyon, Ball State and Lamar weren't much better.

This season, not only has Utah scheduled better competition, but they're also traveling for the games. The Utes travel to Viejas Arena to battle San Diego State, play Kansas in Kansas City and take on UNLV at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. The latter two are neutral-site games in name only. Oh, and Wichita State is coming to Salt Lake City.

Utah returns everyone of significance from last season's team, led by the solid perimeter trio of Delon Wright, Jordan Loveridge and Brandon Taylor. The three combined for approximately 41 points, 16 rebounds and 11 assists per game last season.

Wright was the only power-conference player to finish in his league's top 10 in points, assists, steals and blocks, plus he shot 63.3 percent on his two-point attempts.

The Utes sport five players 6'8" or taller, but only two have any game experience. Nevertheless, the eyes of Utah are trained on in-state power forward Brekkott Chapman and redshirt frosh Kyle Kuzma. Rookie point guard Isaiah Wright (no relation) will see time as a defensive pest off the bench.

Aside from Isaiah Wright, backcourt depth could be a problem, but Utah has more than enough top-line talent to crack the upper half of the Pac-12. The league lost some talent this offseason, but not so much that it should send fewer than four or five teams to the Dance.

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