NFL Week 2 Picks: Predictions for Favorites and Underdogs

In terms of NFL picks against the spread, labels such as "favorites" and "underdogs" should already make bettors shudder.

Wallets, purses and other money-carrying apparatuses are significantly lighter than usual one week into the season as bettors were burned repeatedly by both ends of the spectrum.

Those brave souls should tread lightly, too. The same teams that gave them issues last week might just do so again. Look at Kansas City, a team that opened as a favorite last week and seemingly attempted to lose. Or New England, which also opened a favorite, only to simply go through the motions in an all-important divisional game. Dallas was a popular underdog, and well, then Tony Romo happened.

Suffice it to say, Week 2 may turn out just as unpredictable. Below, let's glance at the full schedule and zoom in on notable favorites and underdogs.

NFL Week 2 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Miami at Buffalo	EVEN	Miami	Miami took care of Tom Brady, so EJ Manuel shouldn't be a problem.
Jacksonville at Washington	Washington (-4.5)	Jacksonville	Washington lost to a team on a 14-game losing streak. RG3 is a mess.
Dallas at Tennessee	Tennessee (-3.5)	Dallas	Tony Romo does not throw three picks THAT often.
Arizona at NY Giants	NY Giants (-1.5)	Arizona	The Giants defense is a mess and can't match up with a pair of great receivers.
New England at Minnesota	New England (-4.5)	Minnesota	See analysis below chart.
New Orleans at Cleveland	New Orleans (-6.5)	New Orleans	Cleveland's biggest weakness is under center, which is a bad recipe against Drew Brees.
Atlanta at Cincinnati	Cincinnati (-5)	Atlanta	Cincinnati's defense showed cracks last week when Baltimore actually caught the ball. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan threw for 448 yards.
Detroit at Carolina	Carolina (-1)	Detroit	Detroit touts an elite run defense, and Cam Newton will be rusty upon return. Panthers cannot guard Calvin Johnson, either.
St. Louis at Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay (-4.5)	Tampa Bay	Josh McCown will continue to improve in new surroundings.
Seattle at San Diego	Seattle (-4.5)	Seattle	Seattle secondary can quiet Philip Rivers.
Houston at Oakland	EVEN	Oakland	Home team has an advantage, right?
NY Jets at Green Bay	Green Bay (-9)	NY Jets	Rex Ryan's defensive line will obliterate the Packers offensive line.
Kansas City at Denver	Denver (-12.5)	Kansas City	See analysis below chart.
Chicago at San Francisco	San Francisco (-7)	San Francisco	Chicago's defense is a mess.
Philadelphia at Indianapolis (Mon., Sept 15)	Indianapolis (-2.5)	Philadelphia	Philadelphia offense will have a big day against Colts defense.

Odds via Odds Shark and accurate as of 5 p.m. ET, Sept. 12.

Notable Favorite Breakdown: Kansas City at Denver (-12.5)

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos came dangerously close to letting down a vast array of bettors to start the season last week, hardly covering the opening line against Indianapolis.

Good news for the massive line here—Alex Smith isn't Andrew Luck. Andy Reid certainly isn't Chuck Pagano. The Kansas City Chiefs are simply not the Indianapolis Colts.

Look, it was disappointing that Denver allowed Luck and Co. to rally late and make the eventual 31-24 win a close one. But bumps were to be expected for a new-look defense that will only continue to grow stronger in the coming weeks.

The team's biggest offseason additions came on that side of the football. End DeMarcus Ware, cornerback Aqib Talib and safety T.J. Ward now headline a unit that is suddenly quite formidable. Talib wound up ranked as the No. 4 corner in the NFL last week at Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Ward came in at No. 30 at safety and Ware notched 1.5 sacks.

Bettors know Manning and the offense will score. But it only helps that he gets to go against a Kansas City defense that last week allowed Tennessee's Jake Locker to throw for 266 yards and two scores, while the plodding Shonn Greene took 15 carries and found 71 yards.

Don't even get started on the Kansas City offense. Jamaal Charles, arguably the best back in the league, touched the ball all of 11 times total. Eleven. 5+6. One more than 10.

Terez A. Paylor of The Kansas City Star asked Reid about the gaffe:

Alright then. It is also noteworthy that No. 1 wideout Dwayne Bowe, leader of the league's worst receiving corps, will make his return from suspension.

And promptly be blanketed by Talib. And hope beyond hope that he is even a part of the game plan. And rely on Smith, who was intercepted three times and completed just 54.3 percent of his passes last week.

Reid is unlikely to make the same mistake twice when it comes to Charles, though, so at the very least expect the Chiefs to stick around enough to the point that the spread is a tad too much. Add in that this is a divisional bout that last year saw neither side win by more than 10 points and feel comfortable betting the under, but with Denver outright.

Prediction: Broncos 35, Chiefs 24

Notable Underdog Breakdown: New England at Minnesota (+4.5)

L.G. Patterson/Associated Press

So Minnesota is at home, just won 34-6 against St. Louis and faces a New England team that got upset by Miami to start the season, 33-20—but is the underdog.

Right.

Look, nobody would be silly enough to suggest that taking down a Sam Bradford-less Rams team is something to entirely write home about, but the fact remains that new coach Mike Zimmer is arguably the NFL's best defensive mind and his unit held a professional team to all of six points and 318 total yards.

Numbers Never Lie concurs that Tom Brady and the Patriots are in a bit of trouble in what is their second consecutive road game:

Remember, last October while still defensive coordinator of the Cincinnati Bengals, Zimmer dialed up a game plan that limited Brady to an 18-of-38 line for 197 yards and an interception.

Just last week, Brady attempted 56 passes but managed 249 yards and a score while being sacked four times. The blueprint to stop the Patriots is certainly something Zimmer understands and the Dolphins put to good use last week.

Conversely, a New England defense that gave up 191 rushing yards and two touchdowns through the air is in some trouble on the road once again. This time, the unit has to somehow stop a strong running game and stud wideout Cordarrelle Patterson, who caught three passes last week and rushed as many times for 102 yards and a score.

The point is, Brady's offensive line is a mess at exactly the wrong time. His defense mishandled the Dolphins, which does not bode well against a Norv Turner offense that features dynamic players such as Kyle Rudolph and Patterson.

It will surely be a close contest if Brady can pull off some heroics and Rob Gronkowski can play more than he did a week ago, but the Vikings will take it at home.

Prediction: Vikings 23, Patriots 20

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).