New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Green Bay Packers will try to rebound from a season-opening loss at Seattle when they host the New York Jets on Sunday.

The Packers were crushed by the Seahawks and will be happy to be back home at Lambeau Field, where they have gone 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as eight-point favorites or more.

Point spread: The Packers opened as nine-point favorites, and the number is creeping toward 10 as of Friday; the total was 46. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark Computer Prediction: 21.1-16.3 Packers

Why the Jets can cover the spread

The Jets are coming off a 19-14 home win against Oakland last week that was far from perfect but still managed to get the job done. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs of eight points or more and need to play better offensively in the red zone than they did last week.

New York had to settle for four field goals against the Raiders, and if only one of those had been a touchdown, the team would have covered the spread. The Jets can watch the tape on Green Bay’s run defense to find the holes running backs Chris Ivory (team-high 102 rushing yards on 12 carries versus Oakland) and Chris Johnson (68 yards on 13 carries) can exploit because there is a definite weakness in the middle.

Just ask the Seahawks.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

The Packers are a much better offensive team with All-Pro quarterback Aaron Rodgers back under center despite how he played at Seattle, totalling 189 passing yards with one touchdown and one interception.

That goes without saying, but Green Bay's running game is a bigger issue following a concussion to second-year running back Eddie Lacy, who was limited to 34 yards on 12 carries by the Seahawks. While Lacy may play, his questionable status gives Rodgers a good excuse to throw the ball more against a weakened New York secondary.

The Jets got to face a rookie QB last week but will be going up against one of the NFL's best here.

Smart Pick

The Jets defense is good enough to keep them in this game even though there are some questions at cornerback. That's because their defensive line should be able to pressure Rodgers consistently throughout and shut down the Packers on the ground.

Green Bay's offensive line was immediately weakened against Seattle when right tackle Bryan Bulaga left the game with a knee injury. Bulaga is considered doubtful to return against New York, and his loss will show with Rodgers being forced to scramble and improvise more than he would like.

Just as the prediction computer suggests with its 21-16 call, look for the Jets to stay within a touchdown of the Pack, who have failed to cover their last five games at Lambeau.

Trends

• Jets are 3-0-1 ATS in last four games as road underdogs of eight points or more
• Jets on 0-3 ATS run vs. NFC North teams
• Packers 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as home favorites of eight points or more

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.