New Orleans Saints vs. Cleveland Browns: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The New Orleans Saints are favorites on the road this week, a spot in which they're just 2-4 straight up, 0-6 against the spread over the last couple of seasons.

And their last game against Cleveland ended in a surprising result. Can the Saints avoid an 0-2 start? Or can they hand that fate to the Browns, who are far more accustomed to that record?

Point spread: The Saints opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 47.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark Computer Prediction: 26-15 Saints

Why the Saints can cover the spread

New Orleans once again showed it was capable of putting up 30-plus points on any given Sunday when it racked up 472 yards of offense and 34 points Sunday against Atlanta. Unfortunately, the Saints gave up 37 points to lose outright as three-point road favorites to the Falcons.

New Orleans led 20-7 late in the second quarter, but let that lead slip away. Then in overtime WR Marques Colston fumbled, leading to the game-winning field goal for Atlanta. The Saints defense got gouged for 568 yards Sunday, but it's better than that, after ranking fourth last year in both yardage and points allowed.

Why the Browns can cover the spread

The Browns opened this season with a 30-27 loss at rival Pittsburgh, but covered the spread as six-point dogs. Cleveland trailed in the first half 27-3, then rallied to forge a 27-27 tie, before giving up a Steelers field goal at the buzzer.

When it was over, the Brownies had outrushed Pittsburgh 183-127 and committed zero turnovers. They also got a nice second half from QB Brian Hoyer, who finished 19-for-31 passing for 230 yards and a touchdown.

The Browns didn't give up, and worked their way all the way back, which bodes well. Finally, while it was four years ago, the last time these two teams met Cleveland, with Colt McCoy at QB, went into the Superdome and upset the Saints 30-17, winning straight-up as 12-point dogs in one of the biggest shockers of the 2010 season.

Smart Pick

New Orleans has had some well-documented troubles away from the artificial turf inside the Superdome. Over the last two seasons the Saints are just 4-5 both SU and ATS on grass fields. Cleveland, meanwhile, is 6-2 both SU and ATS the last eight times it's been lined as a home dog.

So the smart money here is with the Brownies and the points, in spite of what the computer says.

Trends

• New Orleans is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games on the road
• Cleveland is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games
• Saints are 1-6 ATS last seven games vs. AFC North
• Saints are 2-6 ATS last eight games as road favorites of six points or more
• Browns are 4-2 ATS last six games as home underdog of six points or more

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark, follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.