NFL Picks Week 2: Upset Predictions Based on Latest Vegas Odds

Now that we have been given a taste of what all 32 NFL teams are capable of doing, it's time to start separating the wheat from the chaff. This might only be Week 2, but trying to climb out of an 0-2 hole with only 14 games left puts tremendous pressure on a roster and coaching staff. 

It's also interesting to see how the oddsmakers in Las Vegas react to the first week of the season. They put so much energy into being ahead of the curve that when an upset like Buffalo defeating Chicago on the road happens, it causes them to reassess everything. 

In their effort to examine what happened last week, while being realistic that it was just one week, betting lines reflect that hard work. However, there are still some lines that are just itching to be picked apart. We are going to do just that by picking the biggest upsets for Week 2 based on what the oddsmakers are saying. 

Matchup	Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)	Steelers, 24-21
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (Pick 'Em)	Dolphins, 24-20
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)	Panthers, 27-23
Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals (-5)	Falcons, 28-20
New Orleans Saints (-7) at Cleveland Browns	Saints, 23-16
New England Patriots (-3) at Minnesota Vikings	Patriots, 31-17
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at New York Giants	Cardinals, 20-10
Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans (-3)	Cowboys, 27-17
Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington (-7)	Jaguars, 20-17
Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) at San Diego Chargers	Chargers, 24-21
St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7)	Bucs, 31-20
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-13)	Broncos, 41-27
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers (-9.5)	Packers, 34-24
Houston Texans (-2.5) at Oakland Raiders	Raiders, 17-14
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)	49ers, 28-24
Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts (-3)	Colts, 31-28

Upset Predictions

Atlanta Falcons (+5) at Cincinnati Bengals

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Let's go back real quick. The Falcons started the season with a victory, albeit at home, against a New Orleans team that a lot of analysts think has a great chance to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the Bengals go on the road against an inferior Baltimore team, hang on to win that game and are five-point favorites against Atlanta. 

I am sure there is logic to this, but it baffles me. The Falcons are always going to have questions on defense, as evidenced by the 472 yards allowed last week. The Bengals, who are supposed to have a strong defense, allowed 423 yards to the Ravens. 

Matt Ryan continues to be money in late-game situations, with ESPN Stats & Info providing this number on the Atlanta quarterback following last week's comeback win:

The Falcons also have their big-play duo back with Roddy White and Julio Jones healthy. Jones had 116 yards against New Orleans, while White had 72 yards and a touchdown. Even Devin Hester got in on the action with six receptions for 99 yards. 

The Bengals offense struggled to put the ball in the end zone against Baltimore, settling for five field goals in the first half, before A.J. Green made the big play in the fourth quarter. Prior to that, Andy Dalton wasn't exactly quieting any doubters. 

One concern for Atlanta's defense last week was the lack of pressure on Drew Brees, who wasn't sacked once in the game. However, defensive coordinator Mike Nolan told Vaughn McClure of ESPN there was a reason for this:

"

We eliminated a lot of the potential pressures we were going to use because the things that Drew [Brees] was doing took us a little bit out of our game. I've got to give the guy credit: The frustrations that we had were really created by him. He did an outstanding job. He's a great quarterback, no question.

"

Dalton certainly doesn't have Brees' pocket presence or quick release, so the Falcons will find it easier to generate pressure. It will all add up to a 2-0 mark for the Falcons, who will remind everyone why they were in the NFC Championship Game two years ago. 

Prediction: Falcons 28, Bengals 20

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) at Washington

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

It's rare that you will find a lot of positive things to say about a team coming off a 17-point loss, but the Jacksonville Jaguars are taking small steps to get back to respectability. For the first half of their game in Philadelphia, Gus Bradley's team destroyed the Eagles with an aggressive defense and big plays on offense. 

Things were going so well in the first 30 minutes that Eagles quarterback Nick Foles nearly matched his turnover total from all of 2013, via SportsCenter:

Allen Hurns was doing his best Calvin Johnson impression with four catches for 110 yards and two touchdowns to give the Jaguars a 17-0 lead. It all came crashing down in the second half when the Eagles scored 34 unanswered points, but there was evidence that these aren't the Jags of old. 

On the other side, it turns out that Robert Griffin III's 2013 performance may not have been an aberration. His stat line against Houston in Week 1 doesn't look bad (29 of 37, 261 yards), but he never got the offense in rhythm in a 17-6 loss. 

J.J. Watt's constant presence in the backfield didn't help matters, though Griffin said that he was more concerned about execution in the red zone, via Washington's official Twitter:

Griffin did have a costly fumble on a muffed handoff in the third quarter. More alarming is the way Washington wasn't able to exploit Houston's defense with Pierre Garcon and the newly acquired DeSean Jackson having just 139 yards on 18 combined catches. 

Considering there was more evidence of the Jaguars improving than Washington, it shouldn't come as a surprise when the road team comes out with its first victory of 2014. 

Prediction: Jaguars 20, Washington 17

Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers (+5.5)

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

If you were to rank all 32 teams based on their Week 1 performance, with no knowledge about their recent past, how do you not put Seattle No. 1? The defending Super Bowl champions showed no signs of slowing down against Green Bay, running all over the Packers defense with 398 total yards and stifling Aaron Rodgers on defense. 

On the list of disappointing teams, San Diego's lackluster effort against Arizona ranks right up there. The Cardinals are a quality team with a good secondary, but the Chargers were up by 11 in the fourth quarter before blowing the lead. 

Of course, blowing late leads is nothing new to the Chargers, via ESPN Stats & Info:

So why take San Diego in this matchup? There are two reasons for the pick. First, while they are still a good road team, the Seahawks aren't the same away from home. Two of their three losses last year were away from home and the defense allowed 20 or more points in three road games.

Those aren't alarming numbers but still worse than what they were in the comforts of CenturyLink Field. Second, while not a scientific reason, this is the kind of game the Chargers always win. They were 5-7 last year, then reeled off four straight wins, including a Thursday night road victory at Denver, to make the playoffs. 

Just when you start to think that this is the year things will bottom out for the Chargers, they find a way to do enough to keep you on the bandwagon. Philip Rivers isn't backing down from the challenge of facing Seattle's secondary, telling reporters, via Terry Blount of ESPN, he will do something Rodgers didn't last week:

"[Sherman] is a great corner," Rivers said. "But at the same time, I think you have to be smart. It's not one of the deals that you want to go after him by any means. But our approach is not going to be to completely eliminate [Sherman] and not throw over there any."

I will admit that it wouldn't surprise me if this game turns into a blowout for the Seahawks. They are the best team in the NFL, and San Diego didn't inspire a lot of confidence with its performance last week. Sometimes, though, weird things happen in the NFL. 

Plus, it's not like the Chargers are a bad team. They did win a playoff game last year and gave the Broncos a fight in the divisional round. 

Prediction: Chargers 24, Seahawks 21

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