Pittsburgh Pirates: Predicting the 2015 Opening Day Roster
The Pittsburgh Pirates’ resurgence as a National League contender has been spearheaded by players like Andrew McCutchen, Gerrit Cole and Neil Walker, to name a few.
Thankfully for the organization, all those players will be back next year, although Walker is due for a substantial raise in arbitration from his current $5.75 million contract.
Plenty of other players are headed to arbitration, a complicated process wherein teams and agents submit salary figures and haggle over contracts for a coming season. The process is oftentimes decided by a third party if the two sides cannot agree on terms.
The arbitration process will play a huge role in the composition of the 2015 Pittsburgh Pirates, and it’s impossible to predict which players will be non-tendered and not offered contracts by the front office.
Regardless, it’s interesting to take a look at what next year’s Pittsburgh Pirates Opening Day roster might look like as they try to remain consistent contenders in one of the best divisions in baseball.
Catcher: Tony Sanchez
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It’s been said many times before, but it’s worth repeating. Russell Martin is hands-down the best catcher to hit the free-agent market this winter.
Martin has been absolutely crucial to the Pirates’ success over the last two years, establishing a solid rapport with the pitching staff, playing a very stingy defense and providing a reliable bat in the middle of the lineup.
Unfortunately for the organization and its fans, Martin’s days in Pittsburgh are almost over.
The front office has never been one that spends outlandish sums on free agents, and that’s exactly what Martin will command.
Best estimates, such as Bob Smizik's for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, predict Martin will want a deal that will take the 31-year-old catcher into retirement. That means a three- or four-year deal worth more than $10 million a year, a sum the Pirates likely won’t pay.
That means there’s going to be a gigantic hole to fill behind the plate, one that will likely be plugged by Tony Sanchez. Despite the fact Sanchez has been seeing time at first base in the minors, there’s just no one else in the organization ready to take over an everyday role in the majors.
There’s 23-year-old Elias Diaz, who is expected to compete for a roster spot in 2016. There’s also 19-year-old Reese McGuire, a prospect who still hasn’t climbed above Single-A. Neither is a viable option for 2015.
That leaves Sanchez, a man with plenty of question marks when it comes to his defense behind the plate.
That or the front office ponies up the dough and signs Martin or another free agent, either of which is preferable to Sanchez.
1st Base: Ike Davis/Gaby Sanchez
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Whoever mans first base next year for the Pirates won’t have big shoes to fill in replacing the tandem of Gaby Sanchez and Ike Davis. That is unless the starting first baseman is either Gaby Sanchez or Ike Davis.
It’s not clear if either player will be offered a contract by the front office, although each is entering his third year of arbitration.
Davis is making $3.5 million this year, Sanchez $2.3 million. Both could be in line for big raises if their cases hit arbitration, despite the fact that neither has done much to deserve it.
Barring any surprise free-agent signings, there aren’t many other options for the Pirates.
The front office hasn’t ruled out Pedro Alvarez returning to third base, but that’s only if it exercises the option on his contract next year. The team could also give Andrew Lambo another shot at first base, although he failed in a big way when given the same chance in spring training this year.
The best guess here is that first base will again be manned by either Davis or Sanchez—or both. The real question is whether fans can stomach another ineffective platoon at first base for an entire season.
2nd Base: Neil Walker
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This one is a no-brainer. The Pittsburgh Kid will again man second base next year because the Pirates will pay whatever they have to in arbitration to bring Walker back.
He is having another spectacular season at the plate and can make a case as being the best all-around second baseman in the National League.
Nothing to see here. Walker will again be in the middle of the Pirates’ plans for 2015.
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Shortstop: Jordy Mercer
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You might as well just read the Neil Walker slide again.
Jordy Mercer took a big step this season in establishing himself as one of the better shortstops in the National League. He’s hitting .260 this year, an average that would be much higher if it weren’t for a dismal April at the plate.
He’s also an above-average defender in the field at shortstop, one of the most important defensive positions on the diamond.
Again, there isn’t much speculation here. Mercer will be back in 2015.
3rd Base: Pedro Alvarez/Josh Harrison
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This one is more wishful thinking than anything else, but it’s important to note that the front office hasn’t given up on Alvarez.
It’s been a nightmare season for El Toro, who went from leading the National League in home runs last year to being a bench player this year.
The decline in his offensive stats has somehow not been the worst part of his season. Even the casual fan is aware of the fact that Alvarez somehow forgot how to throw a routine ball from third to first base, resulting in 25 errors that have literally cost the Pirates several games this year.
Somehow, none of that means his playing days at third base are over, per Jenn Menendez of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
"We’ll certainly revisit it after the season, General Manager Neil Huntington said. “A guy that’s capable of hitting .250 with 36 home runs and 100 RBIs and playing adequate defense at third base? That’s a pretty good player for an organization to have. We’re not ready to close the door on that long term.
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Of course, there's always Josh Harrison to fall back on.
The man fans love to call Jay-Hay will be back with the team next year, albeit with a significant raise. Surely next season will be a lot like this one, where manager Clint Hurdle will find playing time if Harrison's bat remains hot and his defense is solid.
He's not a shabby fallback plan if Alvarez again fails at the hot corner, given the fact that Harrison is currently in the batting-title race in the National League.
Right Field: Gregory Polanco
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It hasn’t been all rainbows and unicorns for Polanco this season as many fans expected him to arrive on the scene in a big way. He hasn’t—hitting for a .238 average in a season that saw him get sent back to the minors after a 1-30 streak at the plate.
The silver lining? Polanco is 22 years old and has the potential to be one of the best players in baseball. Scouts agree that he has all the tools necessary to be one of the best in the game, and he’ll have all offseason to hone his craft.
At least he won’t have to worry about making the major league roster next year. Polanco is a shoo-in to be the starter in right field next year.
Center Field: Andrew McCutchen
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Talk about a shoo-in.
The reigning National League MVP in 2013 likely won’t repeat that feat this year, although he’s put together another incredibly solid season at the plate.
He’s by far the best player in the organization and has played a huge role in bringing this team back to respectability. Look for him to again man center field for the Pirates in 2015 as one of the best players in the game.
Left Field: Starling Marte
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The final piece of what could be one of the best outfields in baseball, Starling Marte is experiencing an explosion at the plate in the past several weeks, showing the front office a glimpse of the player it hoped he’d be when it signed him to a long-term deal.
Like other players on this list, there are no surprises here. Look for the tandem of Polanco, McCutchen and Marte to man the outfield for the Pirates for at least the next several years.
Starting Rotation
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A few days ago B/R's Ryan Gaule predicted the starting rotation for 2015 with several interesting additions.
What’s not debatable is that the rotation will be partially filled with names like Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke. What comes after is still very much in the air.
The front office likely won’t re-sign Francisco Liriano, who will garner significant interest this winter from teams around baseball as a free agent.
The same can be said for the resurgent Edinson Volquez, who will likely command a higher salary than the team wants to pay despite Volquez being the best starter on the team this year. It’s possible but not likely the front office decides to re-sign Volquez at a higher annual salary.
That’s where players like Vance Worley and Nick Kingham come in, players already in the organization who wouldn’t command a great deal of money to pitch next season.
Worley has pitched well above expectations this season and could easily earn himself a starting spot next year, while Kingham has pitched very well in the minors recently and could fill the spot vacated by Jameson Taillon, another top prospect who this spring underwent Tommy John surgery.
Taillon himself could even become a viable option midway through next season if the team again has holes it needs to fill.
Regardless, look for the starting rotation to get much younger and more inexperienced than the current bunch, something that shouldn’t be a problem as long as pitching coach Ray Searage is in town.
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