FedEx Cup 2014: Dark Horses to Capture $10 Million Prize
At this stage in the FedEx Cup 2014, "dark horse" has a little different definition than it traditionally does in PGA Tour events. With only 29 players in the field (Dustin Johnson is absent, of course), there's not a lot of territory between front-runners and dark horses, especially since the field is theoretically the 30 best golfers on tour this season.
In this case, we'll identify "dark horses" as golfers listed from the 15th through 29th spots in major sportsbooks as potential candidates.
Of this group, the five best based on recent past performance and career success at the Tour Championship will be selected for your reading (and betting) pleasure.
Players six through 29 need both a win at the Tour Championship and some help from the players in the top five. For the purposes of this article, we'll assume that players one through five provide that help.
Click through for the equines.
John Senden
1 of 7
Odds to win Tour Championship: 65-1
BMW Championship finish: T23
Most recent Tour Championship finish: 26 (2012)
Why he should be your dark-horse pick
The winner of this year's Valspar Championship, John Senden has flown under the radar since his victory in March. While he hasn't been superb since raising the trophy, the Australian has been solid in the playoffs. He finished tied for fifth at the Deutsche Bank Championship.
He tied for 10th in greens in regulation at the BMW Championship. Thus, Senden's iron game is on point. Given his overall solid play in the playoffs and past experience at East Lake, the 2014 winner could be poised to win again.
Morgan Hoffmann
2 of 7
Odds to win Tour Championship: 50-1
BMW Championship finish: 3
Most recent Tour Championship finish: N/A
Why he should be your dark-horse pick
Morgan Hoffmann is on fire. He shot 62, 63 over the weekend at Cherry Hills. Forget about the fact that the New Jersey native hasn't played East Lake before. If Hoffmann continues his torrid pace, he's capable of winning anywhere.
In all three events, Hoffmann was outside the bubble to make it to the next tournament. In all three events, Hoffmann responded, playing well enough to advance. That ability to respond under pressure is stuff of champions in general and FedEx Cup champions in particular.
Gary Woodland
3 of 7
Odds to win Tour Championship: 50-1
BMW Championship finish: T23
Most recent Tour Championship finish: T22 (2013)
Why he should be your dark-horse pick
While he wasn't overwhelming at East Lake last year, the Kansas native at least has some experience playing in the season's final event.
Woodland was solid in the first three playoff events. On average, he's hit 70 percent of greens in regulation for the playoffs and hasn't had his characteristic struggles with the flatstick (Woodland is 132nd in strokes gained: putting this year).
If he continues the above trends, Woodland could be your champion.
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Ryan Palmer
4 of 7
Odds to win Tour Championship: 40-1
BMW Championship finish: T4
Most recent Tour Championship finish: 28th (2010)
Why he should be your dark-horse pick
Ryan Palmer played about as well as anyone on this list at the BMW Championship. The Texan was in position to win the tournament after three rounds but wilted Sunday. However, he only has to look to the last two weeks for inspiration.
Billy Horschel came up just short (in more ways than one) at the Deutsche Bank Championship. A week later, however, he regrouped and raised a trophy. Palmer could do the same thing at the Tour Championship if he continues hitting greens at the rate he did in Colorado (76.3 percent).
Jimmy Walker
5 of 7
Odds to win Tour Championship: 40-1
BMW Championship finish: T20
Most recent Tour Championship finish: N/A
Why he should be your dark-horse pick
Appearing in the Tour Championship for the first time in his career, Jimmy Walker shouldn't be a forgotten man. He's played solid golf throughout the playoffs and has the raw materials to win at East Lake.
Walker has played well in the big tournaments this year, finishing inside the top 10 in three of the four majors as well as The Players Championship. He hit an impressive 72.2 percent of greens in regulation at Cherry Hills.
With a similar ball-striking performance at East Lake, Walker could raise the FedEx Cup with a little help. Don't be deterred by the fact that he hasn't played the season-ending event before: Walker has no trouble in his first appearance at a track, as his quality play in the majors indicates.
Hideki Matsuyama
6 of 7
Odds to win Tour Championship: 40-1
BMW Championship finish: T20
Most recent Tour Championship finish: N/A
Why he should be your dark-horse pick
Before you dismiss Hideki Matsuyama, remember: He won earlier this year at difficult Muirfield Village having never played the course before. Thus, Matsuyama should have no trouble playing well at another difficult track he's playing for the first time: East Lake.
After three off-weeks with the flatstick, Matsuyama putted much better on Cherry Hills' tough greens. If he's able to master the Donald Ross layout, he could win for the second time this season in a debut.
Zach Johnson
7 of 7
Odds to win Tour Championship: 33-1
BMW Championship finish: T43
Most recent Tour Championship finish: T7 (2013)
Why he should be your dark-horse pick
While Zach Johnson didn't excel at the BMW Championship, he did tie for 16th the previous week at the BMW Championship. He also tied for seventh at the Tour Championship last year, which means he played better golf at East Lake more recently than any other golfer on this list.
Johnson struggled to find greens at Cherry Hills. His 59.7 percent hit rate was more than 6 percent lower than his GIR numbers from the Deutsche Bank Championship and The Barclays. If he tightens up his iron play, he'll be poised to win at a course that doesn't traditionally favor long hitters.
All stats via PGATour.com. Odds are based on consensus figures from major sportsbooks, obtained via OddsChecker.com.
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