NFL Week 1 Picks: Last-Minute Advice on Vegas Odds and Spreads

The expiration date on NFL Week 1 spreads is about to pass. 

Football is back, but for those bettors who wish to make some cash on its return and have withheld wagers until now in the hopes of getting more favorable lines, the time is now to throw down the coin or tuck the tail and turn toward next week.

A retreat is respectable in this case, because to be frank, Week 1 is a minefield of horrible decisions waiting to happen due to the nature of the wild NFL offseason and the propensity for the unpredictable to happen now that each team has toyed with its roster and staff.

Below, let's attempt to make the process easier with a look at each game and zoom in on two that even the most cautious of bettors should feel comfortable with at the deadline.

NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Green Bay at Seattle (Thurs., Sept. 4)	Seattle (-3.5)	Seattle	Seahawks don't lose at home, and Aaron Rodgers has to break in a new center.
New Orleans at Atlanta	New Orleans (-1)	New Orleans	Drew Brees has more weapons than ever, and that Rob Ryan defense will be nothing short of improved.
Minnesota at St. Louis	St. Louis (-3)	Minnesota	Mike Zimmer defense, no Sam Bradford and Adrian Peterson? Easy.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh (-5)	Pittsburgh	More no-huddle for Ben Roethlisberger means plenty of scoring.
Jacksonville at Philadelphia	Philadelphia (-11.5)	Jacksonville	See analysis below chart.
Oakland at NY Jets	NY Jets (-4.5)	Raiders	A Rex Ryan defense awaits Derek Carr's debut.
Cincinnati at Baltimore	Baltimore (-1)	Cincinnati	Andy Dalton seems to have improved, and Geno Atkins is healthy. No Ray Rice for Baltimore.
Buffalo at Chicago	Chicago (-4.5)	Chicago	The Bills are a mess, and Marc Trestman's offense won't skip a beat.
Washington at Houston	EVEN	Washington	Unless Ryan Fitzpatrick can out-gun RGIII, this one may get ugly.
Tennessee at Kansas City	Kansas City (-5.5)	Tennessee	Defensive-centric contest with Jake Locker able to keep the Titans close.
New England at Miami	New England (-1.5)	New England	Rob Gronkowski's return threw Miami's chances out the window.
Carolina at Tampa Bay	Carolina (-3)	Tampa Bay	Lovie Smith will get the most out of an elite defense while a hobbled Cam Newton struggles.
San Francisco at Dallas	San Francisco (-2.5)	San Francisco	See analysis below chart.
Indianapolis at Denver	Denver (-6)	Denver	Indianapolis has done little to improve an already leaky defense from a season ago.
NY Giants at Detroit (Mon., Sept. 8)	Detroit (-3.5)	NY Giants	Lions offense is too explosive for Giants to keep up.
San Diego at Arizona (Mon., Sept. 8)	Arizona (-3)	Arizona	Forced to pick, home team with a great defense seems the likely bet.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 12 p.m. ET, Sept. 6. 

Jacksonville at Philadelphia

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

This isn't the 2013 Jacksonville Jaguars. Or the 2012. Or the 2011. Or the 2010...

Look, at first pass it is easy to get why this just so happens to be the biggest spread of opening week. Chip Kelly leads a sexy, well-oiled offense at home against Jacksonville, a team seemingly forever trapped in a rebuild.

Except that rebuild, under the watchful eye of Gus Bradley, is not going all that horribly. Chad Henne is not that horrible under center, especially with a talented rookie duo of Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson to hit.

Bradley, who most recently made a stop in Seattle, also has himself a power back by the name of Toby Gerhart who can bruise for tough yardage and in theory protect his quarterback as Marshawn Lynch did for the Seattle Seahawks.

Most important of all, though, is Bradley's defense. He brought on former Seattle defensive end Red Bryant, who ranked as the No. 17 overall player at the position last year, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). At the other end is Chris Clemons, another former Seattle standout and recently acquired player.

ESPN.com's Michael DiRocco explains that the newfound depth in the trenches will make all the difference for Bradley's team:

"

I think it has a chance to be much better because of the upgrades the team made along the defensive line. The Jaguars were 31st in total defense last season but the additions of defensive ends Chris Clemons and Red Bryant and defensive tackle Ziggy Hood via free agency, plus finally having defensive tackle Roy Miller healthy, makes the defensive line significantly better. Now the Jaguars go two-deep across the front and the first unit of Clemons, Miller, Sen’Derrick Marks, and Bryant is pretty darn good. Most people focus on Clemons because he’s a pass-rusher, but the addition of Bryant is huge because he sets the edge in the run game and that’s an area in which the Jaguars struggled last season.

"

The point is these Jaguars won't just roll over to a team that went 4-4 at home a year ago and lost a major offensive weapon in DeSean Jackson, which places a load of pressure on the oft-injured Jeremy Maclin to produce in droves. Not to mention we don't know just yet what to fully make of Nick Foles based on a rather limited sample size.

Make no mistake, the Eagles should come out on top. LeSean McCoy is elite, and the offense will score enough to get the win, but a victory by so many points to start the season against a team seemingly headed in the right direction seems a bit far-fetched.

Prediction: Eagles 28, Jaguars 23

San Francisco at Dallas

USA TODAY Sports

At first glance it looks like the Dallas Cowboys catch a major break with this matchup occurring now rather than later in the season.

After all, the San Francisco 49ers are not at full strength. No. 1 wideout Michael Crabtree is hobbled. NaVorro Bowman is still out. Aldon Smith is suspended. Interestingly, though, coach Jim Harbaugh confirmed Ray McDonald will take the field, as Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee explains:

"

Jim Harbaugh: Ray McDonald will travel with team, will play on Sunday... #49ers #Cowboys http://t.co/60ZOUywZGf

— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) September 5, 2014"

Regardless, the home team appears to have an advantage.

Key word there being "appears." Dallas has a potent offense, sure, but so does San Francisco. Led by Colin Kaepernick, who finished last year with 3,197 passing yards and 21 touchdowns to eight interceptions, not to mention another 524 yards and four scores on the ground, the 49ers will have a field day against the Dallas defense.

Don't forget that the team went out and added receivers Stevie Johnson and Brandon Lloyd via free agency and deep threat Bruce Ellington through the draft. To help the ground game, Frank Gore is now spelled by rookie Carlos Hyde.

That sort of offensive potency screams efficiency against a Dallas defense that ranked dead last with an average of 415.3 yards allowed per game. Offseason additions such as tackle Henry Melton and corner Brandon Carr help, but losses such as Sean Lee, Amobi Okoye and DeVonte Holloman mean the unit is already running on fumes.

Even owner Jerry Jones seems down on his team's luck before the game.

''I think there is a difference being optimistic and assessing the odds,'' Jones said, per The Associated Press (via Fox Sports). ''You've got guys out there, no-name guys. You've got guys out there who retired. You've got guys who are coming back from injury. Man, this is a `to prove' group.''

Expect San Francisco to have little issue moving the ball on the ground Sunday, hostile environment or not. While the missing-in-action list on defense is alarming, it's not enough to think the unit, led by Patrick Willis, can't keep the Dallas offense in check.

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).