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Kansas City Chiefs' Jamaal Charles runs before an NFL football preseason game against the Green Bay Packers Thursday, Aug. 28, 2014, in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Tom Lynn)
Kansas City Chiefs' Jamaal Charles runs before an NFL football preseason game against the Green Bay Packers Thursday, Aug. 28, 2014, in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Tom Lynn)Tom Lynn/Associated Press

Fantasy Football Week 1: Last-Minute Stat Predictions Before Sunday's Games

Chris RolingSep 7, 2014

The crunch to get those lineups in has arrived.

On one hand, Week 1 is a blessing for fantasy football owners because there are so many options out there thanks to the lack of a bye for a swath of teams, but on another, that makes things all the more difficult—not to mention the lack of recent on-field performances to act as a guide.

Sleepers and busts line each lineup and even the waiver wire like a minefield, so those owners who do not invest a ton of time in the homework department will come up short in what is perhaps the most difficult week of the calendar.

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Let's help to lessen the workload below by projecting some of the top scorers and putting the microscope on the skill positions.

Week 1 Projected Top Scorers

1 Peyton Manning DEN IND 260 yards, 4 TDs26
2 Drew Brees NO at ATL 380 yards, 3 TDs25.5
3 Nick Foles PHI JAC 225 yards, 3 TDs24
4LeSean McCoy PHI JAC 120 yards, 2 TDs24
5Colin Kaepernick SF at DAL 310 yards, 2 TDs23.5
6Jamaal Charles KC TEN 92 yards, 1 TD23
7Montee Ball DEN IND 95 yards, 1 TD22.5
8Matthew Stafford DET NYG 380 yards, 2 TD22
9Adrian Peterson MIN at STL 70 yards, 2 TD20
10Jay Cutler CHI BUF 175 yards, 4 TDs20
11Jimmy Graham NO at ATL 55 yards, 2 TDs18
12Calvin Johnson DET NYG 120 yards, 1 TD18
13Matt Forte CHI BUF 85 yards18
14Andrew Luck IND at DEN 250 yards, 2 TDs18
15Rob Gronkowski NE at MIA 90 yards, 2 TDs16
16Arian Foster HOU WSH 80 yards, 1 TD16
17A.J. Green CIN at BAL 101 yards, 1 TD16
18Demaryius Thomas DEN IND 109 yards, 1 TD16
19Dez Bryant DAL SF 84 yards, 1 TD14
20Giovani Bernard CIN at BAL 58 yards14

Quarterback 

Quarterback is far and away the easiest position to project when it comes to fake football, even during Week 1.

Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are going to produce no matter the matchup but perhaps even better than usual this week against the weak defenses of the Indianapolis Colts and Atlanta Falcons, respectively.

With another year of experience under his belt in Chip Kelly's innovative attack, expect Nick Foles to have a major output as well, especially against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that gave up the fifth-most points to the position one season ago and proceeded to focus most of its efforts on the offensive side of the football this past offseason.

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick is arguably one of the biggest sleepers of the week. It hurts that No. 1 receiver Michael Crabtree's status is up in the air, but the signal-caller can hurt defenses on the ground and has an amazing matchup against a Dallas Cowboys defense that gave up the second-most points to the position last season and is already hobbled.

Even Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler should score highly thanks to favorable matchups. In other words, it is more so than usual a great week to own one of the projected top-10 quarterbacks.

Running Back

While the position as a whole is an unpredictable mess this season, the top five running backs are pretty cut and dry.

LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles and Matt Forte are sure to wreak havoc on the ground and through the air, while Adrian Peterson will get his as always.

Of note is Montee Ball in Denver, the young player tasked with replacing Knowshon Moreno. Given his place in a Manning-led offense, it is not ridiculously out of the question to expect Ball to have a top-five season at the position as his predecessor did while rattling off 11 games in double figures.

Arian Foster is perhaps the best sleeper at the position this week. He meets a Washington defense that surrendered the fourth-most points to backs last season and is set to see a major workload now that he is healthy.

"Arian's going to play a lot," coach Bill O'Brien said, per John McClain of the Houston Chronicle. "After that, we'll see how it goes."

Pitfalls to avoid include Ben Tate, Le'Veon Bell, Ryan Mathews and Pierre Thomas, as all have usage or matchup concerns that better suit them for a bench role for the opening week.

Wide Receiver

Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant are set to rule the fantasy landscape this week thanks to favorable matchups and, well, being the most dominant players at the position.

The good thing about receiver is the value and production run deep.

Take New York Jets wide receiver Eric Decker for example. He's the No. 1 wideout, but many are worried his top-eight production from a season ago was the byproduct of playing with Manning. Those numbers are sure to drop off in New York with Geno Smith under center, right?

Please. Rotoworld's Patrick Daugherty puts it best:

Those owners savvy enough to capitalize when opportunity knocks may also unearth some rather deep sleepers for the opening week too.

Denver, which seems to be the focal point this week in a number of ways thanks to last year's output, will be without Wes Welker due to suspension, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. All that does is make Emmanuel Sanders and rookie Cody Latimer rather reliable options this week.

Tight End

Jan 6, 2013; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta (88) runs after a catch for a third quarter touchdown against the Indianapolis Colts during the AFC Wild Card playoff game at M&T Bank Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA

Hit-or-miss is the only way to describe the tight end position, outside of the top two, of course.

Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski will make owners proud, even if the latter continues to be a major risk thanks to his injury history—it does not change the fact he has hauled in 42 touchdowns in 50 appearances.

After that, the drop-off is significant, even for Denver's Julius Thomas. There are project players such as Ladarius Green and Zach Ertz worth a gamble, as well as Dennis Pitta, who has lost the attention of a nation due to injury last season but may very well find himself in the top five by season's end.

With production so even across the board after the top two, owners can feel safe with most options as long as they know the player will actually take the field.

Note: Green Bay/Seattle omitted due to Thursday Night Football. All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as is points-against info. Statistics courtesy of ESPN.

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