NFL Week 1 Picks: Predictions for Favorites and Underdogs

Parity is prominent in the NFL, so in Week 1, it is only through the dictated point spreads that we can determine favorites and underdogs among the 32 teams. Until a live-action, significant game is played, passing judgment on anyone is tough, with the preseason being the only sampler.

Sunday and Monday offer the rest of the regular-season openers following the Seattle Seahawks' 36-16 home victory over the Green Bay Packers to kick the 2014 campaign off.

Now it's time to look ahead to the majority of the action. Below lists all the remaining picks for Week 1's games, along with some bold predictions for the favorites that will cover and the underdogs that will offer surprises.

Away Team	Home Team	Pick
New England Patriots	Miami Dolphins	Patriots (-5)
New Orleans Saints	Atlanta Falcons	Saints (-3)
Oakland Raiders	New York Jets	Raiders (+5.5)
Cincinnati Bengals	Baltimore Ravens	Bengals (+1.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars	Philadelphia Eagles	Eagles (-10.5)
Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Bears (-7)
Cleveland Browns	Pittsburgh Steelers	Steelers (-7)
Washington	Houston Texans	Washington (+3)
Minnesota Vikings	St. Louis Rams	Vikings (+3.5)
Tennessee Titans	Kansas City Chiefs	Titans (+3)
Carolina Panthers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Panthers (+3)
San Francisco 49ers	Dallas Cowboys	Cowboys (+4.5)
Indianapolis Colts	Denver Broncos	Broncos (-8)
New York Giants	Detroit Lions	Giants (+6)
San Diego Chargers	Arizona Cardinals	Chargers (+3)

Mortal Lock Favorites

Denver Broncos (-8) over Indianapolis Colts

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Peyton Manning vs. Andrew Luck. The first time this happened was last year, when the Colts defeated the Broncos 39-33 in Indianapolis.

Now the scene shifts to Denver, where Manning will prove his team is boss and will shrug off any notions of a Super Bowl hangover in abrupt fashion. The big reason why is the absence of suspended Colts pass-rusher Robert Mathis.

Indianapolis needs to get pressure on Manning to have any chance. It could also use a balanced offense to prevent Manning from getting on the field. At least that's what Colts offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton hopes, via the Indianapolis Star's Mike Chappell:

Good luck with that, Indianapolis. Trent Richardson is your feature back and looks every bit like a complete bust as the 2012 No. 3 overall draft pick.

And then there was this from the Detroit Free Press' Dave Birkett:

A lot is made of Luck being the next elite quarterback in the league. Sure, he led Indianapolis to 22 wins in his first two seasons and orchestrated some great comebacks along the way, as SportsCenter points out:

But Luck has been rather erratic, to the point that he might be a bit too hyped. A laundry list of evidence was presented by Rolling Stone's Kenneth Arthur to support this claim. Among the numbers presented, with regard to where Luck ranked in 2013: 6.7 yards per attempt, 21st in touchdown percentage, 23rd in completion percentage.

By any measure, that isn't near where any of the top signal-callers are. Without a strong enough defense to support him, Luck will continue to make critical errors by pressing too much.

The Broncos' upgraded defense, featuring DeMarcus Ware and a lockdown cornerback in Aqib Talib, will make this game rather lopsided, though Luck might push the final score closer than expected.

Prediction: Broncos 41-27 Colts

Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) over Cleveland Browns

USA TODAY Sports

Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, pictured above, has blocked for 20 different starting quarterbacks in Cleveland. Now the AFC North's perpetual cellar-dwelling franchise is trotting out hometown QB Brian Hoyer at Heinz Field to face a vaunted, exotic Pittsburgh defense.

The future of the Browns franchise, at least based on his draft status, is Johnny Manziel. He will be holding a clipboard, unless Cleveland decides to feature him in a special package. That would only exacerbate the team's perpetual quarterback issues.

In stark contrast, despite coming off two disappointing 8-8 seasons, the Steelers are one of the stablest organizations in sports. Giving them a touchdown at home in Week 1 to a team that has lost at least 10 games in six straight seasons seems reasonable enough.

The Associated Press' Tom Withers tweeted the Browns' depth chart, featuring undrafted free agent Taylor Gabriel as the No. 3 wide receiver:

Hoyer's top receiving target, Miles Austin, has battled injuries and is no lock to play all 16 games. The other three Browns wideouts, Andrew Hawkins (995 yards receiving in his career), Travis Benjamin (coming off a torn ACL) and the aforementioned Gabriel, are diminutive and relatively unproven in the NFL.

With how pass-happy the NFL has become, this is not a recipe for success. ESPN Cleveland's Aaron Goldhammer weighed in on ESPN's projections for the Browns:

"

ESPN now says the Browns are going 1-15. ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!?!?!?!?!

— Aaron Goldhammer (@HammerNation19) September 2, 2014"

Tight end Jordan Cameron is the only reliable pass-catcher. Cleveland coach Mike Pettine is making his debut, and if the preseason is any indication, the defense he was supposed to bring over from Buffalo isn't clicking just yet. None of that translates well to the Browns' efforts of snapping the double-digit loss skid.

Two-time Super Bowl champion Ben Roethlisberger runs the Pittsburgh passing attack and has the likes of Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount to lean on in the backfield.

Expect growing pains and the same old Browns, as the Steelers steamroll their divisional foe in dominant fashion.

Prediction: Steelers 27-13 Browns

Surprise Underdogs To Cover

Dallas Cowboys (+4.5) over San Francisco 49ers

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Much is made of how horrendous the Dallas defense is. In contrast, that has been the foundation of San Francisco's success since coach Jim Harbaugh took over.

The Cowboys can't be much worse than last year, though, while the same can't be said for the Niners. Linebackers Aldon Smith and NaVorro Bowman are out for an extended period of time, and the best corners San Francisco had in 2013, Tarell Brown and Carlos Rogers, now start for Oakland.

Talk about a dream matchup for Dallas QB Tony Romo, who's often blamed for the team's perils yet still produces like a Pro Bowl player. ESPN's Numbers Never Lie notes how Romo is more clutch than many think, too:

Colin Kaepernick is far from a finished product as a passer. Although he lit up Green Bay for 412 yards through the air in the 2013 season opener, he had just one 300-yard game thereafter. Playing on the road with so much at stake is going to be difficult.

San Francisco has established a physical identity in its recent success. Without key personnel at linebacker and a shabby secondary, the Niners aren't the best matchup versus Dallas.

For once, a QB other than Romo will come under Week 1 scrutiny. Kaepernick may put up decent numbers against Dallas, but Romo's demonstrated knack for leading comebacks will give the Cowboys critical early-season momentum and culminate in a thrilling victory.

Prediction: Cowboys 34-31 49ers

Oakland Raiders (+5.5) over New York Jets

Is everyone really this low on Derek Carr? Yes, the Jets have a strong defensive front featuring Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson, but their defensive backfield is another matter.

John Middlekauff of Comcast SportsNet highlights a key misconception that likely led a lot of teams to pass on Carr, who is now the only rookie to start Week 1:

Jets head coach Rex Ryan doesn't seem to be as concerned as he would be if this matchup occurred later in the year, via the New York Daily News' Manish Mehta:

But no matter what Ryan schemes up against the rookie Carr, he ought to be ready for it. Carr ran a 4.69-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine, so he has the speed to avert the rush and buy time.

Also helping the cause is that Carr has a cannon for an arm to throw his receivers open against lackluster New York corners. Experienced former Green Bay receiver James Jones figures to be a strong target for Carr, and a player who had a nose for the end zone with 14 TD receptions in 2012.

Jones knows a little about strong QB play, having caught balls from Aaron Rodgers. Check out what he said recently in comparing Carr and Rodgers, via the San Francisco Chronicle's Vic Tafur:

In a game that will loom large for both Carr and the Jets' second-year signal-caller Geno Smith, it wouldn't be a shock to see the former be superior because of his more diverse knowledge of offenses. Carr can work with both pro-style and spread elements.

Meanwhile, Smith was all spread at West Virginia and hasn't exactly lit it on fire in Marty Mornhinweg's West Coast offense. Smith also has a veteran behind him in Michael Vick, who enjoyed his best NFL success under Mornhinweg's guidance in Philadelphia.

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

You don't trust Carr against a Ryan defense? How about Smith facing a Raiders unit that features newcomers Justin Tuck and LaMarr Woodley on the line to harass him in the pocket? Or former 49ers Brown and Rogers starting in the secondary, with strong safety Tyvon Branch back from injury?

And then there's No. 5 overall draft pick Khalil Mack at outside linebacker, joining a corps featuring another rising stud in Sio Moore.

A lot of people counted Carr out because his brother, David, didn't thrive in the NFL as a former No. 1 overall pick. Many are counting him out on this road trip, though it's Smith who may be under the most pressure.

Carr has shown a better attitude to succeed, is a more talented passer and has a backfield with more upside behind him for support. If Maurice Jones-Drew can bounce back and Darren McFadden can stay healthy, which ought to be the case for at least Week 1, that's better than Chris Ivory and the declining Chris Johnson.

All signs point to Oakland because Carr has brought some significant excitement to a team full of veterans, and the Raiders need a strong start in a crossroads season for their entire regime.

Prediction: Raiders 24-20 Jets