Predicting 20 Breakout Players Across the NFL in 2014
Usually when a player becomes a star in the National Football League, you can see it coming a mile away. Look at your best players at the skill positions in this league: Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson. Each of the three was drafted in the top 10 in his respective draft and each became a star by his second year in the league.
But what every team looks for is a diamond in the rough: a Richard Sherman or Arian Foster who can be selected late in the draft or even signed as an undrafted free agent. Or an Evan Mathis, a 30-year-old veteran signed as offensive line depth who quickly becomes the best guard in the league after being thrust into a starting role.
It's almost impossible to predict a true breakout player. That's what I'm attempting to do here. I'm not going for obvious breakout candidates, like Zach Ertz of the Philadelphia Eagles or Toby Gerhart of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Everybody is predicting a big season for those players. I tried to pick more under-the-radar candidates, guys who casual fans haven't even heard of and only true fans would be able to identify the player's team and position.
I looked for players on teams with dominant position groups, such as Seahawks defensive backs, Giants defensive ends or Steelers linebackers. I also looked for former high draft picks who may have struggled for a year or two, former backups now thrust into a starting role or players who have really flashed during the preseason.
In no particular order, I am predicting the following 20 players to turn in a breakout season in 2014.
Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals
1 of 20
Carson Palmer is one of those frustrating quarterbacks who is just good enough to keep his job but not good enough to lead a team on a Super Bowl run. I'd put Andy Dalton, Matt Schaub (when he was with Houston) and David Garrard (when he was with Jacksonville) on that list.
Unlike those other quarterbacks, though, Palmer has one of the best offensive minds in the NFL as his head coach. He also has a dominant pair of receivers and an emerging future star at running back. Factor all that in and you have the makings of a very underrated season for the former No. 1 overall pick.
It's debatable whether you could call it a breakout season if Palmer plays really well. After all, this is his 12th season in the NFL. So we'll go with breakout season for his current team and that would be impressive enough after his career looked basically over while he played in Oakland.
2014 Projection: 363 of 581 for 4,467 yards, 28 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 90.8 passer rating
Andre Williams, RB, New York Giants
2 of 20
The New York Giants have major question marks at the running back position this season. 2012 first-round pick David Wilson was forced to retire this offseason because of recurring neck issues. That left journeyman veteran Rashad Jennings to compete with rookie fourth-round pick Andre Williams for the starting job during the preseason.
Jennings won the job and is expected to handle the bulk of the carries for Tom Coughlin's team in 2014. But don't expect the 29-year-old to end the season as the starter. Although he averaged 4.5 yards per carry for the Oakland Raiders in 2013, Jennings averaged just 2.8 yards per carry in Jacksonville in 2012. He's never carried more than 161 times in a season. It's hard to see that trend beginning this late in his career.
The door is wide open for Williams to become an impact player this season, and he showed his potential this preseason, leading the league in missed tackles.
"Think he's already graduated from that rank. Hype machine in full swing. RT @scott_breault andre williams a sleeper now?
— Brad Evans (@YahooNoise) August 6, 2014"
2014 Projection: 224 carries, 1,017 yards, 4.54 YPC, 7 TD
Zurlon Tipton, RB, Indianapolis Colts
3 of 20
Buried on the depth chart in Indianapolis, on paper it appears that there's almost no way Zurlon Tipton could get his shot at running back with the Colts, barring a couple of injuries.
But look at who the Colts have ahead of Tipton on the depth chart. Trent Richardson was an absolute disaster last season, averaging 2.9 yards per carry after the Colts forfeited a first-round pick for the former No. 3 overall pick. The Colts can't possibly allow Richardson, who is still penciled in as the starter, to plod his way through another year of 11-carry, 32-yard performances.
Behind Richardson is veteran Ahmad Bradshaw, who has always been a 10 or 15 carry a game back but never a workhorse. Bradshaw played in just three games last season and hasn't played in a 16-game season since 2008. He's going to miss time. The big question is how much. Personally, I'm not sure the 28-year-old has anything left in the tank.
Tipton, an undrafted rookie free agent out of Central Michigan, was far from impressive during the preseason, averaging just 3.0 yards per carry. But he did force 10 missed tackles, second-most among all runners, and if Richardson and/or Bradshaw are ineffective or hurt, Tipton may get his chance whether he earns it or not.
The Colts know Richardson and Bradshaw aren't their future at running back. Tipton may not be either, but for the 2014 season, he may be given his chance sooner than expected.
2014 Projection: 143 carries, 595 yards, 4.16 YPC, 5 TD
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Golden Tate, WR, Detroit Lions
4 of 20
Finally. After years of playing with No. 2 receivers like Nate Burleson and Titus Young, Calvin Johnson finally has a legitimate weapon lined up on the other side of the field. Golden Tate, signed in free agency after four seasons in Seattle, has breakout season written all over him in a pass-happy offense instead of a run-oriented offense.
Tate was already a pretty good receiver, as he caught 64 balls for 898 yards and five scores in 2013. He also forced 21 missed tackles, the highest total in the National Football League, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
The elusive Tate has the potential to finish in the top 10 in receiving yardage. After all, Nate Burleson recorded 757 yards under Matthew Stafford in 2011, and Burleson was never anything special as a receiver.
2014 Projection: 94 catches, 1,333 yards, 10 TD
Jermaine Kearse, WR, Seattle Seahawks
5 of 20
There are a couple of reasons the Seahawks felt comfortable letting Golden Tate walk via free agency.
Most importantly, they're a running team that doesn't need to overpay for a solid No. 2 receiver when they're a year away from handing out massive contracts to both Russell Wilson and Earl Thomas. Second, they have Percy Harvin returning from injuries that cost him almost the entire 2013 season. And third, the Seahawks know they have a future playmaker in Jermaine Kearse.
Kearse, just 24, signed with the Seahawks as an undrafted free agent in 2012. He caught 23 passes for 346 yards and four scores in 2013 before turning in this incredible play in the Super Bowl.
Kearse is slated as the team's No. 3 receiver in 2014 behind Percy Harvin and Doug Baldwin. But Harvin is made of glass and has missed 22 games in the last two seasons. An injury would open the door for Kearse to emerge as a legitimate weapon.
2014 Projection: 57 catches, 794 yards, 7 TD
Corey Washington, WR, New York Giants
6 of 20
It's not hard to look at Corey Washington and see a player who just might be the next Victor Cruz, a la an undrafted rookie free agent who came out of nowhere to become one of the best wide receivers in the National Football League.
Washington, named the preseason Most Valuable Player by the NFL's Around the League crew, scored a game-winning or go-ahead touchdown in four straight preseason games. He finished the preseason with 10 catches for 155 yards and four scores.
There's certainly an opening for a playmaker in the Giants offense. Victor Cruz is clearly the No. 1 option, and Rueben Randle is expected to turn in a breakout season as the No. 2 receiver. But rookie first-round draft pick Odell Beckham Jr. is still hampered by a hamstring injury, and Jerrel Jernigan is just a guy as the fourth receiver.
Washington won't collect 1,500 yards, or even 1,000, like Cruz did in 2011, but he should be able to average three catches and close to 50 yards per game.
2014 Projection: 49 catches, 712 yards, 4 TD
Jeff Janis, WR, Green Bay Packers
7 of 20
The Green Bay Packers have set Aaron Rodgers up with the most talented supporting cast he's ever had. Throwing to the likes of Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Jarrett Boykin, Davante Adams and Jeff Janis, with power runner Eddie Lacy coming out of the backfield, sets Rodgers nicely up for an MVP-caliber season.
This piece by RotoViz's Davis Mattek does a nice job explaining why Janis is a sleeper for this season. Mattek goes into depth about the revolving door the Packers have had at wide receiver over the past few seasons.
When you think about Cobb's inability to remain healthy and Boykin's lack of overall athleticism, there's a high possibility that Janis could emerge as Rodgers' No. 4 or even No. 3 weapon during some games.
2014 Projection: 43 catches, 565 yards, 4 TD
Matt Tobin, OL, Philadelphia Eagles
8 of 20
The Philadelphia Eagles have arguably the best offensive line in the National Football League. They also have the oldest, with veterans Jason Peters, Evan Mathis and Todd Herremans all over 30 and likely in the final year or two of their career in Philly.
Whether by an injury to one of the veterans or poor play by Allen Barbre, who is slated to open the season at right tackle after Lane Johnson's suspension, Tobin should get his chance.
He's able to play four of the five offensive line positions, everywhere but center. He was the most dominant offensive lineman on the team this preseason. In fact, Pro Football Focus rated him as the league's best offensive player (subscription required).
I'd start Tobin over Barbre, who struggled all preseason, at right tackle but the Eagles want to go with the veteran. Regardless, Tobin should find his way onto the field for a few games this season, and I wouldn't be surprised if he played well enough that the Eagles handed him a starting job next season, likely at right guard (meaning Herremans would be a veteran cut).
2014 Projection: 359 snaps, 6 games, 5 starts, PFF rating +12.9
O'Brien Schofield, DE, Seattle Seahawks
9 of 20
Despite having the best defense in the National Football League (and arguably one of the best defenses in NFL history), the Seattle Seahawks don't have the vaunted pass-rushers that many seem to think they have.
Veterans Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril are both good but not great pass-rushers, able to collect eight or nine sacks each season. But both are approaching 30, and a starting spot could be up for grabs in a year or two.
O'Brien Schofield, currently listed as the third defensive end per Ourlads.com, could be the next great pass-rusher in the league. He was the fifth-best 4-3 defensive end this preseason, per Pro Football Focus, collecting two sacks, five quarterback hits and six quarterback hurries. Expect his playing time to increase significantly after veteran Chris Clemons departed for Seahawks South (the Jacksonville Jaguars).
2014 Projection: 535 snaps, 31 tackles, 9 sacks, 1 FF, 3 PD
Damontre Moore, DE, New York Giants
10 of 20
There's no doubt in my mind that Damontre Moore is the next great pass-rusher for the New York Giants, and it really couldn't come at a better time.
Veteran Justin Tuck departed for the Oakland Raiders and former first-round pick Jason Pierre-Paul collected just eight sacks over the past two seasons after recording 16.5 in 2011. The Giants desperately need a player who can collect double-digit sacks to step up and fix a once-great pass rush that won two Super Bowls in five seasons.
Moore barely played as a rookie but was unblockable this preseason, collecting four sacks, eight hurries and 10 stops in the equivalent of two full games, per Pro Football Focus.
2014 Projection: 717 snaps, 12.5 sacks, 56 tackles, 3 FF, 2 FR, 1 TD
Margus Hunt, DE, Cincinnati Bengals
11 of 20
The Cincinnati Bengals defensive end seems to be a popular breakout pick across the NFL this season, especially after his monster preseason. In four games this August, Hunt collected a ridiculous four sacks, 10 hurries and 10 stops in the equivalent of two full games, per Pro Football Focus.
There's an opening for a defensive end to emerge on Cincinnati this season, especially after veteran Michael Johnson signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
2014 Projection: 549 snaps, 39 tackles, 11.5 sacks, 4 FF, 9 PD, 1 TD
Corey Liuget, DE, San Diego Chargers
12 of 20
Three years into his career, Corey Liuget has been a solid yet unspectacular defensive lineman. He recorded seven sacks and nine passes defensed in 2012 but failed to build on his success last year, seeing his sack total drop to 5.5 with just two passes defensed.
But Liuget played through most of the 2013 season with a torn labrum in his shoulder. He still managed to lead the team in sacks, hurries and hits, per Pro Football Focus. Fully healthy now, he's just 24 years old and playing for a new contract. Expect a career-best year.
2014 Projection: 914 snaps, 48 tackles, 10 sacks, 3 FF, 7 PD, 1 INT
Jarvis Jones, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
13 of 20
The first-round pick by the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2013, Jarvis Jones produced almost nothing as a rookie. He was thrust into action in midseason when LaMarr Woodley suffered an injury, but he still finished the season with just one sack and 41 tackles.
The breakout player on the Steelers defense turned out to be Jason Worilds, who played well enough that the Steelers felt comfortable letting Woodley walk in free agency. Jones is penciled in as a starter at outside linebacker in 2014, and I'm confident that the second-year player will become a borderline Pro Bowl player this season.
An offseason to learn defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau's schemes will help tremendously, as will the hiring of Joey Porter, a former Steelers Pro Bowl linebacker, to be Jones' personal coach this season. Knowing that he's a starter heading into the season will help Jones' development a lot more than getting thrust into action in midseason as a rookie because of an injury to a veteran.
When you look at Jones' numbers, he really wasn't that bad last season. In particular, although he recorded just a single sack, he collected 25 quarterback hurries, the second-most on the team (and higher than both Woodley and Worilds), per Pro Football Focus. He's looked very impressive in training camp as well.
2014 Projection: 877 snaps, 86 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 36 hurries, 7 PD, 2 FF, 1 INT, 1 TD
Jamie Collins, LB, New England Patriots
14 of 20
It's been a while since Bill Belichick had dominant linebackers. In fact, you can go back to the days of Mike Vrabel, Tedy Bruschi and Willie McGinest.
Right now, it's looking like last year's second-round draft pick, Jamie Collins, could be that next great Patriots linebacker.
Collins started just eight games as a rookie but recorded 56 tackles and displayed abilities as both a run-stopper and a pass-rusher. With Brandon Spikes now in Buffalo, Collins bulked up this offseason and is now a starter at strongside linebacker. Expect him to be the team's best defensive player not named Darrelle Revis.
2014 Projection: 1,010 snaps, 124 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 3 INT, 3 FF, 2 FR, 6 PD, 1 TD
Melvin Ingram, LB, San Diego Chargers
15 of 20
Although he's 25 years old and entering the third season of his career, it seems like Melvin Ingram is just getting started. That's essentially because he is.
After a subpar rookie season, Ingram tore his ACL during the 2013 offseason, costing him the first 12 games of the year. He finished his sophomore season with just a single sack and seven tackles.
Fully healthy now, Ingram is poised for a third-year breakout season, one that will cement him as one of the top pass-rushers in the AFC. It doesn't hurt that he's also playing for a contract extension after the season.
2014 Projection: 858 snaps, 10.5 snaps, 7 PD, 1 FF, 3 FR, 1 safety
Davon House, CB, Green Bay Packers
16 of 20
He spent the offseason training with the NFL's best cornerback, Darrelle Revis, and he rated as Pro Football Focus's best cornerback his preseason. He's currently buried on the depth chart, as the team's dime corner, but expect Davon House to find his way onto the field for significant action this season.
He has to. He's too good to play in just a quarter of the snaps. House broke up 12 passes and recorded 44 tackles despite starting just five games last season.
2014 Projection: 535 snaps, 57 tackles, 4 INT, 2 FF, 13 PD, 1.5 sacks, 1 TD, 78.4 passer rating allowed
Byron Maxwell, CB, Seattle Seahawks
17 of 20
The NFL's next great cornerback plays on, shockingly, the Seattle Seahawks. Seriously, it must be something in the water in this city, or else head coach Pete Carroll is just unbelievable at drafting late-round defensive backs who turn into superstars.
Last season, Maxwell allowed the second-best passer rating in the NFL (47.8), trailing only teammate Richard Sherman, per Pro Football Focus. With Brandon Browner now in New England, Maxwell is a starter next to Sherman. He's Pro Bowl caliber without a doubt.
2014 Projection: 934 snaps, 57 tackles, 3 INT, 17 PD, 2 FF, 1 FR, 73.4 passer rating allowed
Johnathan Cyprien, S, Jacksonville Jaguars
18 of 20
Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley came from Seattle, where he helped turn Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman into two of the best defensive backs in the NFL. His next task? Doing the same with 2013 second-round pick Jonathan Cyprien.
Cyprien rated as the third-worst safety in the NFL in 2013, per Pro Football Focus. But the potential is there. He recorded 102 tackles, six passes defensed, an interception, a sack and two forced fumbles.
His learning curve will be greatly improved by the increased additions on the Jaguars' pass rush, thanks to a number of free-agent signings this offseason. He'll be a Pro Bowler sooner rather than later.
2014 Projection: 1,014 snaps, 121 tackles, 5 INT, 17 PD, 2.5 sacks, 4 FF, 1 FR, 2 TD
Mark Barron, S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19 of 20
Sometimes a change in the coaching staff is all a player needs to become a star, especially if that player was once a top-10 draft pick. I'm betting that's what happens with Tampa Bay's Mark Barron, who gets to play under Lovie Smith instead of Greg Schiano.
The former Alabama star has averaged 89 tackles over his two seasons but has recorded just three interceptions and one forced fumble. Playing behind potential Defensive Player of the Year candidates Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David will also help Barron become the league's next great safety.
2014 Projection: 1,124 snaps, 111 tackles, 5 INT, 3 FF, 2 FR, 13 PD, 78.4 passer rating
Harrison Smith, S, Minnesota Vikings
20 of 20
I picked Harrison Smith to lead the NFL in interceptions in 2013. But the 2012 first-round pick played in just eight games with a foot injury and finished the season with two interceptions.
I wouldn't be surprised if he emerged as the league interception leader under new head coach Mike Zimmer in 2014. Like Barron, a change of scenery might cause Smith to become the star the Vikings expected when they drafted him 29th overall.
2014 Projection: 1144 snaps, 83 tackles, 6 INT, 19 PD, 2 FF, 1 TD
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