Fantasy Football 2014: Top 30 Low-Risk, High-Reward Running Backs
Running back has the most inherent risk of all the positions in fantasy football. Whether it’s due to injury, the metaphorical “hitting the wall,” unreasonable preseason expectations, change in offensive scheme or the emergence of another teammate at the position, many running backs significantly underperform relative to their draft positions.
Because of this fact, many fantasy gurus have endorsed draft strategies that entail skipping running backs in the early rounds. Rotoviz and National Fantasy Football Championship winner Shawn Siegele coined the popular “zero running back strategy” in his article “Zero RB, Antifragility and the Myth of Value-Based Drafting.” This strategy consists of picking elite wide receivers and tight ends throughout the early rounds of a draft and spending late-round picks on running backs.
These running back-avoidance drafting strategies could lead to fantasy success in 2014—just as they did in 2013. However, even though an unprecedented number of first-round running backs choked in 2013, recent historical data suggest that elite-level running backs still have the highest value among all fantasy players, as argued by ESPN.com senior writer Christopher Harris.
Whether fantasy owners are still preparing for last-minute drafts or looking to make roster moves prior to the beginning of Week 1, the evidence suggests they should seek running backs with the highest upside and lowest risk, as they are the most valuable players in fantasy football.
The following are the top 30 running backs with the best balance of upside and risk—with risk being weighted heavier. Their upside was estimated using their past production, preseason performances, overall quality of their current offense and their projected usage in 2014.
Their risk was projected using their past injury histories, projected responsibilities for 2014, styles of running, intra-squad positional competitions, career workloads and past week-to-week consistency ratings.
30. Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans
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Sankey was the first running back off the board in May's draft. This young and speedy back will complement Shonn Greene in the lackluster Tennessee backfield.
Sankey has impressed the Titans coaching staff throughout camp. "I think that it was obvious that he’s a talented young man...We’ve seen growth from him...His course on his footwork has improved. His vision is good. He’s seeing the holes well....I’m happy with him," said Titans head coach Ken Whisenhunt regarding Sankey, per TitansOnline.com.
He has no significant past injury history, which is good. Nevertheless, owning him still comes with a lot of risk. Most rookies take awhile to become productive at the professional level, and he will split carries with Greene throughout the season. There is no clear and reliable path for him to be a top-20 fantasy running back as long as Greene is healthy.
29. Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins
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Lamar Miller failed to prove himself as a dependable feature back for Miami in 2013. He was only able to compile 709 total rushing yards, 170 receiving yards and two total touchdowns for the season. This is why the Dolphins picked up running back Knowshon Moreno during the offseason: to take pressure off Miller's shoulders.
Even though this 23-year-old running back has immense talent, his upside is limited. Just like Sankey, Miller will be a part-time back for the season—barring Moreno missing significant playing time due to injury. This is why it's unlikely Miller will finish the season as a top-20 fantasy running back.
28. Steven Jackson, Atlanta Falcons
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This 30-year-old running back is not a spring chicken. Jackson missed a quarter of last season due to a hamstring injury. He then missed the entire training camp and preseason due to another hamstring strain—in the other thigh.
This is just a continuation of his long history of lower-extremity soft-tissue injuries: groin strains ('07, '10, '12), quadriceps strains ('11, '13, '14), back strain ('09) and hamstring strains ('13, '14). This is noteworthy because these injuries have high recurrence rates and each subsequent injury increases the expected recovery time.
Considering his past injury history and the fact that he has 2,993 career touches, it's reasonable to believe Jackson does not have much tread left on the tires. He is a risky player to own for fantasy, and his backup, rookie Devonta Freeman, is worth a flier in the later rounds.
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27. Joique Bell, Detroit Lions
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Joique Bell will be sharing running back duties with Reggie Bush. Bell unfairly received the label of a “goal-line vulture” earlier in his career. However, over the last two seasons, he has shown to be much more than that by accumulating 105 receptions.
He has also shown to be a more productive pass-catcher than his counterpart. Bell’s average yards per catch for his career is 28.9 percent more than Bush’s, and he finished fourth among all running backs in yards per pass route run in 2013. This sort of receiving production is valuable considering he plays in the pass-happy Lions offense.
Bell’s past injury history is relatively insignificant, and he is the clear-cut favorite for goal-line carries. All in all, he has decent upside and relatively low risk.
26. Shane Vereen, New England Patriots
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Shane Vereen missed eight games in 2013 due to a fractured wrist that he suffered in Week 1. He still managed to finish the season 11th among all running backs in total receiving yards (502), and tied for ninth in yards per reception (9.3). He did this while playing with a cast on his wrist for the second half of the season.
He is clearly an elite pass-catching running back. And as long as Tom Brady and Josh McDaniels are running the Patriots offense, that skill set has a lot of fantasy value.
Unfortunately, Vereen has durability concerns. He has never played an entire 16-game NFL season and has missed 11 games in the past two seasons due to injuries. None of those injuries are too concerning, but his 205-pound frame may not be able to sustain an extensive workload at the professional level.
There is also increased risk with all New England running backs due to the unpredictability of their usage from game to game.
25. Maurice Jones-Drew, Oakland Raiders
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This once elite fantasy running back comes with a lot of risk. He suffered a devastating Lisfranc fracture in 2012 and was forced to miss the final 10 games.
When he returned to play in 2013, he looked like he had lost a lot of his linear and lateral speed. He continued to have nagging foot pain and suffered a hamstring strain. All in all, the season did not go well for Jones-Drew. To add insult to injury, he is now on the historically dysfunctional Oakland Raiders offense.
Heading into the regular season, Jones-Drew is atop the Oakland depth chart in front of Darren McFadden and Latavius Murray. This means he will get plenty of opportunities to prove himself and be productive once again. But it is unlikely he will be a fantasy force in a crowded backfield on a lackluster offense.
24. Reggie Bush, Detroit Lions
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Bush will be a part-time running back for the Lions. He is expected to have more of a pass-catching role than his counterpart, Joique Bell, which is a valuable role to have on a pass-happy offense.
Surprisingly, he was a very consistent fantasy running back last season. He was a top-25 running back in 71 percent of the weeks he played. He also surpassed both 1,000 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards in a season for the first time in his career.
Despite his nice production in 2013, Bush is ranked low due to his fumbling issues and durability concerns. He missed two games last season with knee and calf injuries, and he fumbled the ball five times. Just as he has been for his entire NFL career, Bush is a high-risk, high-reward fantasy running back.
23. Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens
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Ray Rice was arguably one of the most disappointing players in fantasy football last season. His average draft position was in the first round, but he finished the season as the 30th best fantasy running back in the standard-scoring format.
He finished as a top-25 running back in only 20 percent of the weeks he played. Overall, he looked slow and indecisive when he carried the ball and appeared to have hit the proverbial wall.
He will begin the season by serving a two-game suspension for off-field troubles. He is currently going for a discount in fantasy drafts with an average draft position of 67.4 overall, according to FantasyPros.com. He is worth drafting at that value, but his upside is limited. Running backs rarely bounce back after hitting the wall later in their careers.
22. C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills
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Like Ray Rice, C.J. Spiller was a first-round fantasy draft pick who finished outside the top 25 running backs for the season. However, Spiller's lack of production was due to an injury. He suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 4, and it nagged him for the rest of the season.
Spiller has enormous upside as a fantasy running back. He is on one of the most run-oriented teams in the league, and his burning speed allows him to take it to the house on any given play. His career average of 5.1 yards per carry proves that he is a big-time playmaker.
His downside is he is part of a running back by committee. Fred Jackson and Bryce Brown are also in the Buffalo backfield, and they will consume a large portion of the workload. Additionally, high ankle sprains have a relatively high recurrence rate.
21. Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers
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Mathews was a workhorse for the Chargers offense last season. He finished the season seventh in the league in total rushing yards (1,249). His 4.4 yards per carry was strong, to say the least.
His durability has always been a concern. In fact, 2013 was the first season in his four-year career that he played in all 16 regular-season games. His past injury history is worrisome: high ankle sprain ('10, '13), multiple clavicular fractures ('12), concussion ('13) and a hamstring strain ('13).
Mathews is coming off a great 2013 season but will need to continue fighting off the injury bug if he wants to have a similar outcome in 2014. He will also need to perform well enough to justify keeping highly paid Donald Brown on the sidelines.
20. Ben Tate, Cleveland Browns
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Ben Tate is entering the season as a lead back for the first time in his career. However, this strong runner will have to show improved receiving and blocking abilities if he wants to be a three-down back.
His backup, Terrance West, has performed well throughout the offseason, so it's likely that Tate will be sharing the workload with the rookie. Nevertheless, following the upholding of Josh Gordon's season-long suspension, Cleveland is expected to rely on its running game this season. That will equate to a healthy workload for Tate—as long as he is productive. However, the uninspiring Browns offense decreases Tate's fantasy value.
19. Chris Johnson, New York Jets
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Chris Johnson is no longer an elite running back. Despite finishing in the bottom third of the league in yards per carry last season, he still managed to finish fifth among running backs in total fantasy points. This was primarily due to his enormous workload.
Johnson will have a smaller role in the Jets backfield this season. Because his fantasy value has primarily relied on his high workload and durability, Johnson is not expected to finish as a top-10 fantasy running back in 2014.
But if you are in need of a durable running back who will consistently give you meaningful points week to week, Johnson is your guy. Throughout his six-year professional career, Johnson has never missed a game due to injury.
18. Rashad Jennings, New York Giants
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Rashad Jennings was impressive coming off the bench in Oakland last season. He finished the year with a strong 4.5 yards-per-carry average and proved to be an excellent receiver. He has the skill set needed to be a three-down running back.
With David Wilson no longer in the Giants backfield, Jennings is their default lead back. The only challenger he has for the job is rookie Andre Williams, who is currently not a big threat to Jennings.
Owning Jennings in fantasy does come with two big risks. First, the Giants offense has looked terrible since the 2012 season. Second, Jennings has suffered a concussion in each of the past three years. Because each concussion increases the person's chance of suffering another, Jennings has a significantly higher chance of suffering a concussion this season than most other players.
17. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers
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This 31-year-old running back continues to defy logic and Father Time as a matter. In 2013, he played his third straight 16-game regular season. He finished the season in the top 10 for carries, rushing yards and touchdowns.
His impressive durability has been due in part to the way the 49ers have used him. Last season, they let him rest on the sidelines during passing situations and gave him extra days of rest during game weeks.
During this preseason, the 49ers backfield has been diminished due to injuries. With only Carlos Hyde to help him with the backfield workload, Gore will likely be used more this season than he was in 2013. That is not a good thing for a running back who already has 2,518 career touches.
Due to Gore's advanced age and the lack of help in the backfield, it wouldn't be a shock to see him have a regression in production this season. Nonetheless, he is the leading running back on an excellent run-heavy offense, and he has no significant durability concerns.
16. Toby Gerhart, Jacksonville Jaguars
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After spending four years in the shadow of Adrian Peterson, Toby Gerhart has his first opportunity to be a lead back. During his limited playing time in the NFL, he has shown to be an effective three-down running back. Once he gets a full head of steam, he is hard to bring down.
However, he plays for an offense with a relatively low ceiling. Red-zone scoring opportunities will not be abundant for Gerhart, so his value will be derived primarily from his total yardage. Overall, he is low risk but has only RB2 upside.
15. Zac Stacy, St. Louis Rams
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Zac Stacy was last season's ultimate sleeper. He was undrafted in most fantasy leagues but ended the 18th fantasy in fantasy points among running backs. His bruising running style will be put to good use as the Rams will be missing Sam Bradford for the season due to an ACL injury.
Stacy does not have a significant past injury history, but he does come with a decent amount of risk. His risk comes primarily from being on a lackluster offense that will not be in the red zone as often as most teams.
Additionally, Benny Cunningham has been impressive during the preseason and will likely take carries away from Stacy throughout the season. If Stacy does not perform up to snuff, he could easily lose the starting job to Cunningham.
14. Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers
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Despite his impressive fantasy performance in 2013, Le’Veon Bell was actually quite mediocre while running the ball. He finished the season with a miserable 3.5 yards per carry and did not score any rushing touchdowns of 10-plus yards out from the goal line—showing a lack of big-play ability.
Bell’s fantasy value last season came primarily from his receiving production and high volume of carries. He missed three games and still finished 12th overall in carries (244).
Bell's recent off-the-field issues will have little bearing on Bell’s fantasy production this season. The addition of LeGarrette Blount to the Pittsburgh backfield, on the other hand, will impact Bell’s fantasy season. Blount will receive a sizable portion of the carries and, more importantly, the goal-line work. Because Bell’s fantasy value in ’13 relied heavily on volume, the addition of Blount increases Bell’s risk of significantly underperforming his draft value.
13. Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals
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Giovani Bernard was one of the most impressive rookie players in 2013. He compiled the eighth most receiving yards (514) among running backs. He finished the season as the 13th highest-scoring fantasy running back in the points-per-reception format and 16th for the standard scoring format. Not bad for a rookie who had a part-time workload.
Bernard has game-changing elusiveness and impressive acceleration. If new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson can figure out how to get Bernard the ball in open space often enough, he will be a surefire top-15 fantasy running back in all formats.
Because the Bengals cut veteran running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bernard and rookie Jeremy Hill will need to lead the ground game. As long as Bernard stays healthy—there is no reason to doubt he will—he will get a hefty workload this season.
12. Arian Foster, Houston Texans
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Arian Foster’s 2013 regular season was cut short due to a lumbar-disc herniation. Foster played two snaps in his Week 8 game against the Indianapolis Colts and never the saw field again for the rest of the season. He underwent season-ending microscopic lumbar discectomy surgery on November 13 to alleviate his low back and lower-extremity symptoms.
After returning to play this preseason, Foster continued to have hamstring pain, one of the primary symptoms he had due to the lumbar-disc herniation. He sat out most of training camp and appears to be on course to return to full duty in Week 1.
On pure ability alone, Foster has proved to be one of the elite running backs in the NFL. He has the size, speed, agility, field vision and receiving ability to be a top-five fantasy running back this season...if he can stay on the field.
His lumbar-disc herniation should no longer be an issue. However, if he suffered significant nerve damage due to the herniation, he could continue to have the lower-extremity radicular pain. However, it is way too early after surgery to speculate.
Overall, Foster has the upside of a top-five fantasy running back, but the condition of his hamstrings and the state of the offense are concerning.
11. Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals
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Arizona head coach Bruce Arians indicated this summer that Andre Ellington was going to be his No. 1 running rack and expects him to have 25-30 touches per game, according to Fox Sports reporter Mike Jurecki.
If Arians was being honest, this is great news regarding Ellington’s fantasy value for 2014. In 2013, Ellington was second among running backs in yards per carry and yards after contact per attempt. He frequently showed open-field abilities comparable to those of C.J. Spiller and Giovani Bernard. The only restraining factor for him last season was the light work volume.
If he gets at least 20 touches per game this season, it’s reasonable that he will finish as a top-10 fantasy running back. He is a clear 2014 breakout candidate. Nevertheless, until he proves he can physically handle a full workload, he does come with extra risk.
10. Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins
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Alfred Morris is a high-quality two-down runner who thrives in a zone-blocking offense. According to Pro Football Focus advanced metrics, Morris averaged an amazing 4.7 yards per carry against base defenses.
The biggest downside to Morris’ skill set is his receiving abilities—or his lack thereof. Because he is a poor receiving running back, he will not get a lot of touches if his team is significantly down on the scoreboard. Head coach Jay Gruden hinted he will continue to use Washington’s zone-blocking scheme for running plays, but if the team gets down big, all bets are off.
Considering his bulldozer-like running style, Morris surprisingly has had no significant injuries in his career. He has also been one of the most consistent fantasy running backs over the past two seasons. In 2013, he finished as a weekly top-25 running back in 11 of his 16 games. He also consistently finished outside the weekly top five running backs (zero games).
Morris’ impressive durability and consistency make him a high-end RB2 for the 2014 season. He will not finish in the top five, but he will also not finish outside the top 20. When it comes to safety, Morris is the poster boy for fantasy running backs.
9. DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys
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In 2013, DeMarco Murray proved he was among the most talented all-around running backs in the league. He finished the season sixth in rushing touchdowns (nine), fourth in yards per carry (5.2) and ninth in receptions (53) among all running backs. This put him eighth overall in fantasy scoring among running backs for the season.
Murray’s durability is not as appealing as his on-field production. He has never finished a full NFL season. In fact, he has missed 11 games in the past three seasons. Unfortunately for his fantasy owners last season, he missed the final two games of the season—the time of the fantasy playoffs—with a knee sprain.
Murray has accumulated a noteworthy list of injuries throughout his career including a high ankle sprain (2011), foot sprain (2012) and knee sprain (2013). His past injury history and his upright running form are not promising for Murray to make 2014 his first full season of participation. But there is a first time for everything.
Overall, Murray has top fantasy running potential, but he comes with a high risk of missing playing time due to injury.
8. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Martin missed the last 10 games of the 2013 regular season due to a shoulder labral tear that required season-ending surgery. During the games he did play, his production was not overly inspiring. He broke only 11 tackles of his 127 attempts. He also averaged a weak 2.7 yards per carry against base defenses, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). That was the fifth worst in the league for 2013.
Regardless of his snakebitten 2013 season, Martin has proved that he can be a top-10 fantasy running back. In 2012, his rookie season, he was the second-highest scoring fantasy running back for the year. He showed he can run between the tackles and has respectable top-end speed. Additionally, he showed that he can receive the ball well enough to be a three-down running back in the NFL.
Heading into Week 1, Martin and Bobby Rainey sit atop the depth chart. Playing in Jeff Tedford's run-heavy offense, Martin will likely see a huge workload. And opportunity alone has great fantasy value.
As for his health, Martin's shoulder injury is healed, and he is not at any higher risk of re-injury.
7. Montee Ball, Denver Broncos
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Montee Ball is landing the starter's job in the most fertile backfield in fantasy football. The Denver offense led by Peyton Manning had a historic season in 2013. The offense was so efficient and productive that it allowed Knowshon Moreno to end the season as the fifth highest-scoring running back in fantasy.
One reason Moreno was so effective last season was due to the looks he got from the defense. Manning rarely ran Moreno into a box with more than six defenders in it. According to ESPN.com's Christopher Harris, Moreno had 192 of his 242 carries against six or fewer defenders in the box. If Ball gets the same amount of favorable looks from defenders, he will be set up for huge fantasy numbers.
Ball has no significant past injury history. His only real risk in terms of fantasy is his past blocking ability. Last season, he did not see much playing time throughout the first half of the season due to his poor pass blocking. If this deficit is improved, he could be a top-five fantasy running back. But first he needs to show that he is up to the task.
6. Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks
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Since joining the Seahawks, Marshawn Lynch has entrenched himself among the elite fantasy running backs. He has finished as a top-five fantasy running back in the last three seasons. In 2013, he finished as the fourth highest-scoring running back in standard scoring leagues and led the league in rushing touchdowns and avoided tackles.
Lynch has been a workhorse for the Seahawks since his first day on the roster, and he is expected to continue that through this season. Considering the Seahawks have the most run-heavy offense in the NFL, there is a great chance that Lynch will continue to be a top-five fantasy running back.
If that is all true, then why is not he ranked higher? Lynch has a huge career workload. He has had 1,753 career carries and 1,955 career touches. Considering how violent of a running style he has, that is a lot of tread off the tires.
Additionally, he is in the last year of his contract, and he is not expected to be in Seattle next season. With the young-up-and-comer Christine Michael also on the depth chart, it’s reasonable to think Seattle will try to work him into the offense more this season.
Regardless, Lynch has great upside and an insignificant injury history—the back spasms seem to be behind him. Considering the mileage he has accumulated, it’s just hard to predict when he will hit that wall, but it will be sooner rather than later.
5. Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers
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Eddie Lacy was the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2013 for good reason. He helped carry the Green Bay offense for a good part of the year, while Aaron Rodgers was sidelined due to a injury. Lacy racked up 1,178 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns in '13. He also proved to have soft receiving hands with his 35 receptions for 257 yards. His production on the field made him the sixth highest-scoring fantasy running back in standard scoring leagues last season.
Lacy was labeled as an injury concern heading into the NFL draft in 2013. He had fusion surgery of a great toe in 2011, and there were concerns that he would not be able to push off the foot sufficiently enough for the demands of an NFL running back. Lacy also suffered a significant concussion last season from a helmet-to-helmet hit from Brandon Meriweather. It appears the concussion left no noticeable and lasting effects, but the great toe fusion does slightly increase Lacy's risk of injury to that foot.
Overall, he is primed to be the lead back in one of the league's top offenses, although his great toe surgery elevates his risk slightly.
4. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
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Very little needs to be said about the upside of Adrian Peterson. He has had elite fantasy running back production throughout his career—while he has been healthy. He has scored 10 or more touchdowns in each of his seven NFL seasons. Only once has he finished a season with less than 1,400 total yards.
Despite still having the ability to be the top fantasy running back for the season, Peterson comes with more risk than the next three running backs. He has missed seven games in the past four seasons and has accumulated a lengthy past injury history, including an ACL rupture (2011), sports hernia (2012), multiple hamstring strains and multiple groin strains.
Additionally, he has had 2,033 career carries and 2,239 career touches and is 29 years old. All of those numbers should cause concern for fantasy owners. It's very rare for a running back to sustain such a high workload and still be an effective runner. But if any running back in history defies those odds, it will be Peterson, a hands-down future Hall of Fame inductee.
Overall, Peterson still has the ability and opportunity to be the top running back in fantasy this season. However, he has more risk than the next three running backs due to his enormous career workload and length injury history. There is a real chance that he could hit the proverbial running back wall in 2014.
3. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears
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Matt Forte finished the 2013 season as a top-three running back for carries (289), rushing yards (1339), targets (86), receptions (74), receiving yards (594) and fantasy points (264 in standard scoring). There is no reason to believe he will have a regression this season. Marc Trestman's high-powered offense will lead to many scoring opportunities for Forte, especially now that he is the Bears' primary goal-line rusher.
Forte has only missed one game in the past two seasons, and his past injury history is relatively unimpressive: high ankle sprain (2012) and a sprained knee MCL (2011).
Overall, Forte does not have as high of an upside as the final two running backs on this list, but he is as safe of a running back as there is in the league. He is a top contender to be the No. 1 fantasy running back this season in PPR formats.
2. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles
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Behind arguably one of the best offense lines in the NFL, McCoy led the league in carries (314) and rushing yards (1,607) in 2013; he had 200-plus yards more than the second leading rusher for the year. Additionally, he racked up 52 receptions for 540 yards. This is how he became the second highest-scoring fantasy running back in '13.
Besides suffering a concussion in 2012, McCoy has a clean bill of health. The only reason he is second on this list is because the next running back is unmatched in fantasy upside.
1. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs
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Charles was the fantasy football MVP in 2013. He led the league in both rushing (12) and receiving touchdowns (seven) for a running back. He averaged an impressive 5.1 yards per carry against base defenses, per Pro Football Focus. That was the third best in the league in '13. Last but not least, Charles scored 45 standard-scoring fantasy points more than the second highest scorer, Matt Forte. He also was a weekly top-25 running back in all 16 weeks, and he was a top-five running back in eight of those weeks.
Excluding his ACL rupture and repair in 2011, Charles has shown great durability. His overall past injury history is insignificant.
Overall, he has the highest upside of all fantasy running backs, and he is a safe investment as well.
All statistics are courtesy of Pro Football Focus (subscription required) and ESPN.com’s fantasy football statistics.
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