NBA Offseason Flux Ultimately Won't Mean Much

Shaquille O’Neal. Ron Artest. Hedo Turkoglu. Vince Carter. Rasheed Wallace.

All of these NBA players will play for new teams in the 2009-2010 NBA season, and the five aforementioned players bring either championship pedigree or veteran experience.

It is my contention, however, that the upheaval and flux resulting from this summer’s NBA trades and free-agency signings are much ado about nothing, and not only because of next season’s prized free-agent crop, a group led by one LeBron James.

The current signings and trades have failed to change the hierarchy of power in the NBA. The Los Angeles Lakers, the current NBA champions, were one of arguably four teams with realistic title aspirations at the start of the 2008-2009 season; the Boston Celtics, the Cleveland Cavaliers, and the San Antonio Spurs were the other three teams. That list sits at five teams in the midst of the current offseason , add Orlando to the bunch of teams that will vie for a championship.

All five of the teams mentioned above have made “key” acquisitions during this offseason, but only one team has upgraded from last season.

THE LOS ANGELES LAKERS ACQUIRE ARTEST, BUT LOSE TREVOR ARIZA VIA FREE AGENCY. Artest was one of the key cogs on a Houston Rockets team that forced a seven-game series with the Lakers, and the eccentric forward came of age as a reliable scorer, rebounder and leader on a team riddled with injuries. Artest will join Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Andrew Bynum to form a potent lineup that, on paper, should be as efficient on offense as it is on defense. However, the Lakers lost Ariza, ironically enough, to the Houston Rockets via free agency. Ariza provided the Lakers with clutch play during the postseason, whether it came from his perimeter shooting or his timely steals in the Lakers’ series against the Denver Nuggets. Essentially, the Lakers traded away Ariza, a player approaching his full potential as a dangerous wingman and flourishing under the tutelage of Kobe Bryant, for a player in Artest poised to suffer decline in the coming years and has had off-the-court issues in the past. More importantly, I fail to see where Artest, a modest perimeter shooter at best, will be able to match Ariza’s contributions from behind the arc.

THE ORLANDO MAGIC ACQUIRE CARTER, BUT LOSE HEDO TURKOGLU VIA FREE AGENCY. The Orlando Magic recently signed Carter, a native of Orlando, which virtually guaranteed Turkoglu’s departure from the team. The problem with Turkoglu’s departure was that he, not Magic center Dwight Howard, was arguably the most valuable player of Orlando’s run to the NBA Finals. Turkoglu, a gifted 6’10” forward, made clutch shots for the Magic and served as the team’s primary facilitator. Turkoglu averaged almost 17 points, five rebounds, and five assists for a team that suffered the loss of its starting point guard near the All-Star break, was the primary go-to option in the crunch and displayed a strong shooting touch from behind the three-point line. Carter, whose best basketball seems to be behind him, certainly enjoys a touch of clutch in his repertoire, but will be a downgrade from Turkoglu, whose range in the clutch extended to 25-30 feet. Additionally, Carter’s penchant for settling for jumpshots will essentially force him to languish in Orlando’s system, which relies on long-range shots to establish Howard in the post.

THE BOSTON CELTICS PLAN TO ACQUIRE WALLACE. Rasheed Wallace enjoys a skill set rarely found in the NBA; the veteran-forward/center can score in the post, he can score from behind the arc and can cover some of the NBA’s best big men without help from a double-team.  However, Wallace will give the Celtics four perimeter-oriented starters in he, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. Yes, Wallace, Garnett and Pierce have the ability to get to the cup, but all suffer bouts where they settle for jumpshots. Additionally, Wallace’s strong interior defense becomes a moot point when one realizes that the Celtics have both Kendrick Perkins and Glen “Big Baby” Davis on the roster.

THE CLEVELAND CAVALIERS ACQUIRE O’NEAL. Cleveland’s acquisition of Shaq sounds good on paper – combine “The King” with one of the most dominant post players in League history. The problem is that despite LeBron’s brilliance, Cleveland hangs its hat on defense, and Shaq is now a defensive liability. Shaq doesn’t guard the pick and roll, which will mean trouble when the Cavs face the likes of Orlando. Yes, Shaq might be able to secure 20 points and 10 rebounds, but how do the Cavs expect to combat Boston’s depth or Orlando’s jumpshooting? I believe the Cavs will endure another fruitless postseason, which might mean LeBron’s departure from the franchise.

That leaves the San Antonio Spurs, which might be the team to beat in the West depending on whether the Lakers re-sign Lamar Odom. The Spurs acquired Richard Jefferson, a gifted swingman that may be able to frustrate Bryant, from the Milwaukee Bucks. Additionally, the Spurs’ second-round draft coup yielded DeJuan Blair and Jack McClinton. A healthy lineup of Jefferson, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan has the experience and talent to win the West.

[Motown and the Mavericks: Other NBA acquisitions

I’ll express my thoughts on Dallas’ acquisition of Shawn Marion, in addition to the Detroit Pistons’ acquisitions of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva, in short. 

Marion will likely flourish playing with a true point guard in Jason Kidd; however, the Mavericks will still flounder in the playoffs because they feature players that periodically disappear in the clutch (Dirk Nowitzki, Marion).  Kidd’s career is on the downturn, and the Mavericks’ roster, including Marion, still will not be able to contend with the likes of the Lakers, the Spurs, or even the Denver Nuggets.

I fear that Joe Dumars’ time as Detroit’s president of basketball operations may be coming to a close, especially with the team’s lackluster acquisitions of Gordon and Villanueva.  Here’s some ugly truth for Detroit fans – Dumars traded Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson last season; the Nuggets fielded a one-two punch in Billups and Carmelo Anthony that should have worn royal blue, red and white.

Iverson and Detroit appear to be parting ways, which in conjunction with Wallace’s departure means that the Pistons are not the dominant bunch of years past.  Gordon and Rip Hamilton are both two-guards, Villanueva and Jason Maxiell are both power forwards ; position battles were part of the strife that led to Detroit’s decline last season.  Add newly-acquired head coach John Kuester to the mix, and it appears to be a recipe for disaster, concocted by Dumars.]