Belmont Stakes Odds 2014: Race Lines, Post Positions and Picks for Elmont Lineup
The time for horse racing history—whether good or bad—is nearly upon us. California Chrome's quest to become the first Triple Crown winner since 1978 is a mere three days away, and Wednesday's post draw did little but prod the excitement bar.
California Chrome starts in the No. 2 post, which will go down as a death sentence or merely the latest overcoming of odds for this miracle horse. Tabasco Cat was the last horse to win from the No. 2 starting spot. His victory came in 1994, a year when people were wearing flannel shirts and not showering for days to honor the late Kurt Cobain.
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That's a very long time ago.
But regardless of the result Saturday, California Chrome will go down in history. The 3-year-old colt will either rejuvenate the horse racing discourse and someday become his own Disney movie for ending the Triple Crown drought, or he will rejuvenate the horse-racing discourse with a familiar question: Why can't just one horse get this done?
Trying to stop California Chrome's gallop to triumph are 10 other horses—some familiar foes, others not. Ride On Curlin, the only thoroughbred to come within eight lengths of the favorite at the Preakness, is back for a third straight challenge. Commanding Curve will hope the extra 1/4 mile is enough to pass California Chrome the way he couldn't at Churchill Downs.
More importantly, people care about horse racing again. History will do that to folks. With that in mind, let's check in with a preview of Saturday's run from Elmont.
| 1 | Medal Count | Spendthrift Farm | Dale Romans | Robby Albarado | 20-1 |
| 2 | California Chrome | Perry Martin, Steve Coburn | Art Sherman | Victor Espinzoa | 3-5 |
| 3 | Matterhorn | Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners | Todd Pletcher | Joe Bravo | 30-1 |
| 4 | Commanding Curve | West Point Thoroughbreds | Dallas Stewart | Shaun Bridgmohan | 15-1 |
| 5 | Ride On Curlin | Daniel J. Dougherty | Billy Gowan | John Velazquez | 12-1 |
| 6 | Matuszak | George J. Prussin | Bill Mott | Mike Smith | 30-1 |
| 7 | Samraat | My Meadowview Farm | Rich Violette | Jose Ortiz | 20-1 |
| 8 | Commissioner | WinStar Farm | Todd Pletcher | Javier Castellano | 20-1 |
| 9 | Wicked Strong | Centennial Farms | Jimmy Jerkins | Rajiv Maragh | 6-1 |
| 10 | General A Rod | Skychai Racing, Starlight Racing | Mike Maker | Rosie Napravnik | 20-1 |
| 11 | Tonalist | Robert S. Evans | Cristophe Clement | Joel Rosario | 8-1 |
Race Preview
California Chrome isn't just racing for history; he's racing against it. There have been 33 horses in history (not including California Chrome) to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Eleven have walked away with the threesome.
Twelve horses alone since Affirmed's triumph in 1978 have failed at the Belmont. The last two, Big Brown (2008) and I'll Have Another (2012), didn't even cross the finish line in southeastern New York. Perhaps drought isn't even the proper way to characterize horse racing's lack of a Triple Crown winner. It's an epidemic of biblical proportions, one that has seen the once-thriving swath of the sport's fandom shrink exponentially.
"And, as the American dream is more elusive in this age of inequity, so too is California Chrome not so much a dream as a fairy tale," the great Frank Deford wrote in a piece for NPR. "In concert with that, my friends in racing all tell me how important it is for the horse with the four white hooves to win the Triple Crown, because racing needs a hero to help revive the sport of kings in the United States."
Major League Baseball famously went without its version of the Triple Crown for more than four decades before Miguel Cabrera broke the streak. Carl Yastrzemski spent every year since 1967 arguably more famous for being the last Triple Crown winner than for his other on-field accomplishments. The same goes for Affirmed.
But horse racing does not have the other hallmarks that allow MLB to thrive. There is no 500 home run club. No advanced-statistics movement. No Mariano Rivera cutter or Derek Jeter jump throw or Yasiel Puig everything to hold fans over.
Sure, both sides have their well-publicized bouts with performance-enhancing drug use.
The difference here is that while MLB allows us to guffaw at the sanctimony of Ryan Braun, horse racing's drug use opens up a whole different issue about the concept of human beings still pushing animal bodies to the limit for profit in 2014.
So, no, horse racing has little else beyond California Chrome in its favor. The sport at its best is still as majestic and beautiful as always and its dark underside nearly as seedy.
The horse racing industry is the Triple Crown industry. In recent years, the horse racing industry has made the Triple Crown drought an industry of itself. As the margin between the haves and have-nots within the sport shrinks every year, so does the likelihood of a horse winning all three premier races. More people have access to better technology in this age, meaning the fields are deeper and better than ever.
"They're nice and fresh for the next race," jockey Victor Espinoza said of his competitors, per Gary Milhoces of the USA Today. "Any horse that's going to win the Triple Crown, it's going to be better than any horse in history because this is the year there's the toughest race ever. Not just this year, like the last past 10 years."
This is what makes California Chrome so important.
There is a difference between a difficult task in sports and an impossible one. No one will ever break Cy Young's 511 career wins. It is the type of record most young fans don't even know off the top of their heads because it's so unfathomably beyond what's realistically possible in the 21st century. Same goes for Wilt Chamberlain's 50.4 points per game in 1961-62 and Wayne Gretzky's 215 points in 1985-86.
The Triple Crown stays relevant because it seems so attainable. It's only three straight wins. Two of them are on tracks of almost identical lengths. And even the Belmont, at 1 1/2 miles, is only a 1/4 mile longer than the Kentucky Derby.
Is a distance less than two blocks in length really the difference between an elite horse and a mediocre one?
No one in California Chrome's stable seems to think so.
"I feel better about this race than I have any other race, to be honest with you, just looking at the horse and saying, 'Wow,'" trainer Art Sherman noted, per CBS News/Associated Press. "I see how far he's advanced. I know it'll be tougher going a mile and a half, but this horse is a good horse. I think he's the real McCoy."
Sherman and horse racing as a whole better hope so.
There may never be another Secretariat, but the backstory of California Chrome is more than enough for a PG-rated family movie coming to theaters in spring 2016. There is the story of the two blue-collar owners who see something special in a filly no one wanted and spending $8,000 to form a partnership. They spend another $2,000 to breed said filly with another horse, upping the the total to $10,000. Sherman, a wise 77-year-old still looking for his shot at the big time, comes into the picture to train this young colt.
You get the rest of the picture. There aren't even any fictional rewrites needed. You even have the built-in tension of co-owner Perry Martin skipping out on the Preakness in large part because of his aging mother's mistreatment at the Kentucky Derby. You already have the $12 of any sentimental mother looking for a nice family movie and a built-in ambassador for the sport that can help hook younger fans.
It's all meant to be.
Or is it?
2014 Belmont Stakes Picks
Win: California Chrome
Show: Wicked Strong
Place: Ride On Curlin
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