2009 Fantasy Football Sophomore Jinx Predictions

You can put the dreaded sophomore jinx right up there with the Madden curse and the SI cover curse as things that can spoil you top fantasy football players and have you kicking yourself all season.

First off, don’t take these “curses” too seriously. You can cause yourself to over think and assume things and end up messing up your draft picks over something that isn’t really there.

Still, the sophomore jinx is something that definitely happens in the NFL, like all sports. Here are some of last year’s breakout rookies who may or may not be in line for the sophomore jinx.

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Chris Johnson – Tennessee Titans

This is the guy a lot of people have gone both ways on. Some people say he will be more effective in 2009, while others say to draft him with caution. The Tennessee Titans are likely to stick with what earned them a first-round playoff bye last year, the tandem of Johnson and Lendale White running up and down the field.

Given the fact that Jeff Fisher has said this offseason that Johnson could have handled the ball more had he not been a rookie leads me to believe that he will get more carries in 2009, including more goal-line touches.

There’s no doubt that he is the cornerstone of this offense. The Titans have tried to strengthen their passing game a little bit with the acquisition of Nate Washington and the drafting of Kenny Britt.

If the passing game can improve and either White or Javon Ringer can do a decent job of spelling Johnson, he should be in line for a productive second season. Another factor here is that Johnson has no health issues right now.

He’s healthy and ready to go. I say Johnson will be huge in ’09. Book it!

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Matt Forte – Chicago Bears

Here’s another rookie RB in 2008 who came out of nowhere and had a great opening season. He should be the focal point of the Chicago Bears’ offense, despite the addition of Jay Cutler. The problem with Cutler being on the team now is they didn’t acquire him because he’s great at handing the ball off.

They want him to sling it down the field like he did in Denver. But Chicago didn’t add any new or better receivers to go with Cutler. This is going to cause more pressure on Forte to not only carry the ball well, but to possibly be the team’s leading receiver for the second straight season.

Forte won’t be fooling anybody this season either. Defenses have had the offseason to prepare for him and they know that the Bears will go where Forte goes.

Combine that with the fact that Forte is dealing with a hamstring issue right now, and this could all be adding up to a stressful season for Forte and the Bears.

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Kevin Smith – Detroit Lions

Why don’t I think Kevin Smith will suffer the sophomore jinx? He’s already survived the freshman jinx. Last season, Smith, who at one point had lost his job as the Detroit Lions top RB, had only five touchdowns after Week 14.

In addition, he had only one game in which he recorded over 90 yards rushing. In the final three games of the season, though, Smith finally got it going, scoring in each of last three contests, logging his first 100-yard rushing performance and notching performances of 92 yards and 88 yards in the other two contests.

Keep in mind that although their season was realistically over, the Lions were trying desperately to not finish 0-16. So in each of those last three games, Detroit was playing with a playoff mentality and Smith rose to the occasion.

Calvin Johnson is still the main man in this offense, which is causing Smith to be greatly overlooked. The more he’s under the radar, the better it could be for him. The last three games of 2008 should propel Smith to a strong 2009 campaign.

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DeSean Jackson – Philadelphia Eagles

DeSean Jackson’s inaugural season started off with a bang as he turned in back-to-back games with 100 yards receiving. He was Donovan McNabb’s main target, though, because Kevin Curtis and Jason Avant were still nursing injuries.

Once those two receivers came back, specifically Curtis, Jackson’s production decreased simply due to the fact that McNabb was spreading the ball around to everybody. This offseason, the Philadelphia Eagles drafted Jeremy Maclin, so McNabb can now add another name into the hat of receivers on this team.

Don’t forget about Brian Westbrook. As long as he’s healthy, he will be involved in this offense more than any of the receivers. Jackson seemed to almost fall off the map by the end of 2008 and I don’t think much will change in 2009 as long as everybody’s healthy. This could of course all change if some of these receivers suffer injuries during camp and the preseason.

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Eddie Royal – Denver Broncos

Eddie Royal found himself in a great situation in 2008. With Brandon Marshall facing suspension at the outset of the campaign, Royal was able to make a name for himself to Jay Cutler and his coaches, and he remained a key part of the offense when Marshall made his 2008 debut. Things have changed in ’09 for Royal and the Broncos. Cutler is gone and who knows where Marshall will be (Denver, another team, jail). Kyle Orton will be Royal’s quarterback now, but don’t forget that Orton had a pretty respectable season in Chicago, playing for a team that really didn’t have any legitimate receivers. Orton now has Royal, Brandon Stokely, Tony Scheffler and maybe still Marshall as much better options who will spread the field. This bodes well for Royal as, with or without Marshall, he should be a strong target for Orton. The AFC West isn’t known for its defense, so there’s six games right there where Royal could post some big numbers. 

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Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons

First impressions are everything, and that’s exactly what Matt Ryan did in his first game last year when he chucked a touchdown to start the season. Ryan went on a roll for most of the season, eclipsing 300 yards passing twice and three more games of 250 yards and higher. He had 13 touchdowns after Week 13. In the last four regular-season games, however, Ryan was only able to throw for three scores and had five interceptions. In the last three contests, he was only able to manage 206, 134 and 160 yards passing. Combine that with another sub 200-yard performance, two more picks and three sacks in the Atlanta Falcons’ lone playoff game and you could make a fair assumption that being a rookie caught up to Ryan. He does have a star in Roddy White and future hall of famer Tony Gonzalez to throw to, but Ryan’s end to the 2008 doesn’t look as promising to 2009 when defenses will know his tendencies better. There’s also Michael Turner who is still expected to carry the ball a lot. Ryan's success will heavily weigh on his shoulders and his ability to make adjustments on the fly.

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Joe Flacco – Baltimore Ravens

Joe Flacco seemed to mature pretty quickly last year for the Baltimore Ravens, leading them to the AFC title game. Flacco didn’t have many weapons at his arsenal on offense, but he found ways to win football games.

He reminds of Eli Manning, a smart quarterback who finds ways to win football games, but doesn’t look pretty on the stat sheets. That’s great for John Harbaugh, but not so great for fantasy football owners. In contrast to what I said about Matt Ryan, I think Flacco will continue to produce like he did in 2008, but that’s not really saying much when you look at what this offense is capable of.

Until the Ravens can get him a better receiver (one that can stretch the field) than the aging Derrick Mason, Flacco isn’t going to put up tremendous numbers. On the plus side, the Ravens’ defense isn’t going to be as strong as it had been in years past, so they may need to score more points than in recent years now.

The running game looks like it’s still a bit of a question mark right now, so you can take solace in the fact that Baltimore should ride Flacco’s arm to success in 2009. 

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