Triple Crown 2014: California Chrome Still a Long Shot to Earn Honor

Although California Chrome is two-thirds of the way to the Triple Crown, his work is only beginning.

The three-year-old colt set the Pimlico Race Course ablaze to take home the 2014 Preakness Stakes:

With that victory, he's now one Belmont Stakes win away from earning the Triple Crown, which would make him the first horse to do so since Affirmed in 1978.

A total of 12 horses have already won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes before faltering at Belmont Park, per ESPN Stats & Info:

It's easy to get caught up in California Chrome's success so far and proclaim him the presumptive Belmont winner.

Certainly, his win at Pimlico was impressive. Despite the track being the shortest of the three Triple Crown races, he had the victory all sewn up with 200 yards to go. You also have to consider his rather easy win at the Kentucky Derby.

But there are two major factors working against California Chrome in his pursuit of history.

The first is that the level of competition he'll face at Belmont Park is miles better than what he saw at Pimlico.

Yahoo Sports' Pat Forde wrote earlier in the week about how the congested Triple Crown schedule forced many trainers to pull their horses out of the Preakness:

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Almost nobody races their horses on two weeks' rest anymore, which is the time between the Derby and this race. The only horse in this year's Preakness field to have run on a two-week layoff is Bayern, who contested the Arkansas Derby April 12 and then came back to run in the Derby Trial April 26 to open Churchill Downs' spring meet. Trainer Bob Baffert is so excited about Bayern's chances that he hadn't even shown up at Pimlico as of Thursday morning, letting an assistant handle pre-race prep.

Baffert is the No. 2 trainer in the nation in terms of purse money won in 2014. The top trainer, this year and most years, is Todd Pletcher. He brought four horses to the Kentucky Derby but zero to the Preakness, skipping it for the third year in a row.

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Gary Mihoces of USA Today pointed out some of the early contenders for Belmont who sat out the Preakness. That list features the second- through fifth-place finishers at the Kentucky Derby:

Winning any Triple Crown race is difficult, but the Preakness Stakes was almost one of those boxing fights where a titleholder is propped up against a far weaker opponent.

California Chrome was so much better and much more equipped to handle the faster pace, and it showed in the final stretch.

When he heads into New York, he'll be facing off against very talented horses who've had almost a month to prepare. They won't be dealing with any fatigue issues.

California Chrome, on the other hand, will have had two weeks between the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes and then three weeks between the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

Such a quick turnaround is bound to adversely affect any horse, no matter how strong he is.

Not only is all of that a major issue, but California Chrome will also have to deal with concerns over his stamina as he prepares for the longest track in the Triple Crown circuit.

Nobody is questioning the colt's speed. He proved on Saturday that he possesses blistering pace.

However, keeping up at that pace will be extremely difficult over 1 1/2 miles. California Chrome isn't built for distance:

The New York Times drew a parallel between Big Brown—who won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, too—and California Chrome:

Big Brown ran a great race at the Preakness and went into Belmont Park as the prohibitive favorite. However, he failed miserably and was eventually eased to the finish line.

Like California Chrome, Big Brown was built for speed, and that was his ultimate undoing in the Triple Crown's final stage.

Even trainer Art Sherman seemed a bit unsure of his horse's chances at Belmont, per Daily Racing Form:

California Chrome has proven himself to be a gifted horse, but those gifts will be put to the test on June 7.

As if batting history wasn't tough enough, he'll likely be looking at a stacked field and the most physically demanding race he's ever had.

If California Chrome still manages to come out on top despite all that is working against him, he will have acquitted himself well against the greatest in horse racing history.