Preakness Odds 2014: Morning Line and Predictions After Post Draw

With just 10 horses in the field for the 2014 Preakness Stakes, the post position draw didn't significantly boost or limit the chances of any horse. 

Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome drew the third post, which hasn't fielded a winner since Prairie Bayou in 1993, but that didn't dampen the spirits of those in Chrome's camp, as the following tweet from Maryland Jockey Club's Mike Gathagan highlights:  

With the posts and field set, Chrome is a runaway favorite in the morning line at 3-5. The next lowest odds come at 5-1 on Social Inclusion.

Have a look at the full morning line and how the horses will line up at Pimlico Race Course on May 17. 

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Morning Line
1	Dynamic Impact	Miguel Mena	Mark E. Casse	12-1
2	General a Rod	Javier Castellano	Mike Maker	15-1
3	California Chrome	Victor Espinoza	Art Sherman	3-5
4	Ring Weekend	Alan Garcia	H. Graham Motion	20-1
5	Bayern	Rosie Napravnik	Bob Baffert	10-1
6	Ria Antonia	Calvin Borel	Tom Amoss	30-1
7	Kid Cruz	Julian Pimentel	Linda Rice	20-1
8	Social Inclusion	Luis Contreras	Manny Azpurua	5-1
9	Pablo Del Monte	Jeffrey Sanchez	Wesley A. Ward	20-1
10	Ride On Curlin	Joel Rosario	William Gowan	10-1

California Chrome is the runaway favorite for lots of excellent reasons, and I'm not going to tell you he won't win. 

Chrome has been epic while exploding into the national consciousness. He's won five straight races and has won each comfortably. In fact, Chrome was so dominant in the Kentucky Derby that jockey Victor Espinoza didn't even have to ask his horse to keep the gallop on high. 

Beth Harris of the Associated Press shed light on that in a quote from Chrome's trainer, Art Sherman: "(Espinoza) said he didn't ask him for too much thinking about saving something for the next one, for the Preakness."

Chrome should be ready to go for this race, and the short turnaround from the Kentucky Derby has not kept eight of the past 16 winners of the Preakness from being Kentucky Derby champions. 

Although the third post is in a drought, it is a good position for Chrome. He has speed horses on the outside of him, as the Daily Racing Form's David Grening points out: 

Chrome and Espinoza will be able to measure up the speed horses that set the pace and unleash the perfect burst on the homestretch just as they did at the Derby. 

So, in rather boring fashion, Chrome is my pick to win. He will be followed by Social Inclusion and Bayern. The speed of both, along with Pablo Del Monte, figures to make this a different race than the Derby.

Sherman knows this as well as anyone. USA Today's Jennie Rees got this quote from Sherman:  

"

The Preakness field is different to me (from the Derby) because of the speed-laden horses that are in there. I've watched Bayern run at Santa Anita, and he's got a lot of gas. I see there are a couple of new shooters in here. Wesley Ward's horse (Pablo Del Monte) has speed. Social Inclusion. 

"

Bayern's last time on the track came at the Derby Trial Stakes. He was disqualified for interfering with another horse. Obviously, that is less than ideal. It doesn't change the fact, however, that Bayern was the first to cross the finish line in that race and did so after leading wire to wire. 

Rees reported that legendary trainer Bob Baffert will be taking off Bayern's blinkers for this race. Bayern did not race as a two-year-old, and I believe this horse is just starting to find his stride. This will lead him to a narrow finish in show over Social Inclusion. 

Social Inclusion missed his last start, which was scheduled to be Gulfstream's May 5 Sir Bear Stakes, due to a foot bruise. That shouldn't be any problem this time. Rees reported that the colt posted a 47-second half mile earlier this week at Pimlico. 

There is no denying Inclusion's speed. He set Gulfstream Park's track record for 1 1/16 miles. 

Inclusion and Bayern will battle for the lead for most of the race. This will give them a big enough cushion to hold off the field...other than Chrome. 

This will be an entertaining race, but it will be another comfortable win for California Chrome. 

Prediction

Win: California Chrome

Place: Bayern

Show: Social Inclusion