Kentucky Derby Picks 2014: Predictions Based on Odds for Churchill Downs

The odds heading into the 140th Kentucky Derby point to a predictable outcome of California Chrome galloping past the finish line first.

Well, there's a good chance that happens, but it's far from a lock that the favorite seizes the Triple Crown's opening leg. Plenty of other horses are drawing strong recognition from bettors, preluding a race with several applicable contenders.

One of them is not receiving nearly enough love based on past results, but they hold the actual race for a reason. Let's take a look at the odds before tallying Saturday's top-three finishers at Churchill Downs.

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	Vicar's In Trouble	Rosie Napravnik	Mike Maker	25-1
2	Harry's Holiday	Corey Lanerie	Mike Maker	66-1
3	Uncle Sigh	Irad Ortiz Jr.	Gary Contessa	33-1
4	Danza	Joe Bravo	Todd Pletcher	8-1
5	California Chrome	Victor Espinoza	Art Sherman	11-4
6	Samraat	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	18-1
7	We Miss Artie	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	40-1
8	General A Rod	Joel Rosario	Mike Maker	18-1
9	Vinceremos	Joe Rocco Jr.	Todd Pletecher	50-1
10	Wildcat Red	Luis Saez	Jose Garoffalo	16-1
11	Hoppertunity	Mike Smith	Bob Baffert	SCRATCHED
12	Dance With Fate	Corey Nakatani	Peter Eurton	22-1
13	Chitu	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	28-1
14	Medal Count	Robby Albarado	Dale Romans	25-1
15	Tapiture	Ricardo Santana Jr.	Steve Asmussen	18-1
16	Intense Holiday	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	14-1
17	Commanding Curve	Shaun Bridgmohan	Dallas Stewart	40-1
18	Candy Boy	Gary Stevens	John Sadler	25-1
19	Ride On Curlin	Calvin Borel	William G. Gowan	20-1
20	Wicked Strong	Rajiv Maragh	James A. Jerkens	10-1
21	Pablo Del Monte	Jeffrey Sanchez	Wesley Ward	SCRATCHED

Odds, courtesy of Odds Shark, are updated as of Friday, May 2, at 4:30 p.m. ET.

Predictions

Win: California Chrome

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Let's go boring with the winning pick and tab the considerable favorite, California Chrome, to emerge victorious in the 140th Kentucky Derby.

Hey, favorites are favored for a reason. It hardly makes him a slam dunk, home run or other out-of-place sports metaphor to run away with first, but it's something he's done time and time again in the past.

On April 5, California Chrome trotted to a 5 1/4-length victory in the Santa Anita Derby, a Grade 1 stakes race that the colt treated like a practice run. The smooth triumph gave him his fourth straight victory and sixth first-place finish in the last 10 races.

The fifth post position has boded well for jockey Victor Espinoza in the past. Twelve years ago, he led War Emblem to first place from the No. 5 slot. He now gets a horse who is arguably the fastest creature he has ever mounted.

Place: Samraat

Happy now, imaginary person in my mind that is only happy seeing underdogs get praised?

Samraat is no Cinderella, but he's also not frequently cited among the Derby's premier contenders. Bettors should reconsider that slight and pay him some attention.

Through five races, Samraat maintained an unblemished track record, crossing the finish line first in each bout. A Negative Nancy (or Sensible Sally) would point to those coming against lesser competition, as none were Grade 1 events.

Fair enough, but he rose to the challenge at the Wood Memorial Stakes, earning a runner-up finish behind Wicked Strong, who I'll get to in just a moment. Never finished worse than second, yet five horses sport better odds as of Friday afternoon. Interesting.

Samraat placing is far from the upset of the century, but the odds will pay well enough barring a major last-second surge.

Show: Wicked Strong

In an event that can rub people the wrong way for its eliteness and the audience's fancy-yet-ridiculous clothing choices, people outside the 1 percent have someone to root for.

Donald Little Jr., who named his horse Wicked Strong to commemorate Boston, told The Boston Herald's Colneth Smiley Jr. that he'll donate some of his winnings to the One Fund, an organization created to help those affected by the Boston Marathon bombings. 

“If he’s fortunate enough to win on Saturday that will be roughly a $70,000 donation to The One Fund," Little said.

Little added that he's glad to have acquired Wicked Strong, who won the Wood Memorial Stakes in April.

“We were fortunate to get him,” Little said in Smiley's story. “We had to stretch our budget, but he stood out. He’s very keen-eyed, he didn’t miss a beat. And when we got to our farm in Middleburg, Va., he was a dominant horse of the group. He impressed me from Day One.”

The Washington Post's Andrew Beyer believes Wicked Strong will earn that sizable donation, citing his speed as a reason not to fear the No. 19 post position.

"

In the Wood Memorial, Wicked Strong belatedly lived up to the promise he showed as a 2-year-old. His Beyer Speed Figure of 104 wasn’t quite as good as California Chrome’s last two performances (107 and 108), but it was superior to other contenders who will be coming from behind — Danza, Intense Holiday and Candy Boy. He’ll have to start from post position 19, but outside posts have not been a disadvantage in recent runnings of the Derby. With the pace and the distance of the Derby likely to work against the favorite, Wicked Strong is the horse to bet.

"

The third-place prize pot is better than nothing. It'd match jockey Rajiv Maragh's highest previous Triple Crown finish, which he obtained with Mucho Macho Man in the 2011 Kentucky Derby.