Kentucky Derby Field 2014: Triple Crown Predictions for All Horses
One question that surrounds the Kentucky Derby every year is whether there's a horse capable of ending the extended Triple Crown drought in the field. No horse has won the Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes in the same year since Affirmed did so in 1978.
California Chrome would seemingly be the horse with the best chance to pull off the rare feat in 2014, at least on paper. That said, whichever horse ends up winning the Run for the Roses will carry the added weight of expectations to Pimlico Race Course in two weeks.
In order to get a better idea of which horses in the Derby field are capable of making their presence felt either Saturday or in the Triple Crown races to come, let's take a closer look at each one. The field shrunk to 19 following a pair of scratches.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
1. Vicar's in Trouble
It's impossible not to be impressed with the performance Vicar's in Trouble put together to win the Louisiana Derby in his final start before the Derby. Not only was it one of the top outings of any horse during the prep schedule, but he beat out Intense Holiday to get the win.
Normally, that would make him one of the top choices for the first leg of the Triple Crown. The luster was wiped away when he drew the inside point, though. Luckily, as Richard Eng of the Las Vegas Review-Journal points out, the scratches allow him to avoid the extreme inside position:
While it may not seem like much on the surface, that extra space gives Rosie Napravnik some extra space to get a clean break. If Vicar's in Trouble can avoid getting caught up in the early chaos, he's one of the top Derby contenders. And looking ahead, his draw luck can only improve in the other races.
2. Harry's Holiday
Harry's Holiday is coming off a very poor performance in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes. He finished a distant 13th in a race won by fellow Derby contender Dance With Fate. It's hard to consider him a contender in any Triple Crown race given the lack of wins against upper-level competition.
3. Uncle Sigh
Uncle Sigh is one of the most consistent horses in the field. He finished behind Samraat in a pair of Grade III stakes races but finished out of the money in the Grade I Wood Memorial. He's a long shot with some talent, but it will take a truly perfect ride from Irad Ortiz Jr. to win a marquee race.
4. Danza
Danza wasn't among the names generating much attention in the months leading up to the Derby. Then he won the Arkansas Derby with a very impressive performance, and it thrust him into the limelight. It's unknown whether he can replicate that showing, but he's a threat to California Chrome if he does.
5. California Chrome
If California Chrome enjoys a relatively clean trip around the Churchill Downs tracks, it's hard to imagine him not winning. He's clearly the most complete horse in the field, something that became even more apparent following the departure of Hoppertunity.
California Chrome has been outstanding over his past four starts, culminating with a picture-perfect run in the Santa Anita Derby to make him the clear favorite looking toward the first Saturday in May. Nothing has changed since that race to alter his status as the horse to beat.
The two biggest concerns are an absolutely terrible break from the gate that leaves him behind a huge surge of horses or getting caught near a very fast-paced lead. As long as Victor Espinoza avoids those two extremes, California Chrome will be in great shape in all three Triple Crown races.
6. Samraat
Samraat opened his career with five straight victories before getting edged by Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial. The fact is that he didn't run poorly in that race, he just couldn't match the remarkable final kick of his fellow Derby hopeful. He's a definite threat to win one of the Triple Crown races.
7. We Miss Artie
Trainer Todd Pletcher sent We Miss Artie into a lot of graded stakes races early in his career, and the results have been very much mixed. He ended on a high note by winning the Grade III Spiral Stakes, but his overall performance doesn't suggest he'll be a major factor in the coming weeks.
8. General A Rod
General A Rod is an intriguing horse that hasn't finished outside the money in five career starts. It also helps that his jockey is Joel Rosario, who won the Kentucky Derby last year aboard Orb. He's a solid Triple Crown sleeper selection despite finishing third in the Florida Derby.
9. Vinceremos
After finishing first or second in each of his first four races, the Blue Grass Stakes was a key test for Vinceremos, and he didn't respond well, finishing 14th. If he bounces back in the Derby, he could be a factor in the Preakness or Belmont, but it's hard to have confidence in him right now.
10. Wildcat Red
Seven starts into his career, Wildcat Red still hasn't finished outside the top two. The last three of those races have all been high-profile graded stakes races too. He's certainly capable of conquering Churchill Downs if California Chrome doesn't enjoy a clean trip.
11. Hoppertunity (Scratched)
Hoppertunity was forced to withdraw from the Derby due to a hoof problem. He was the second choice before his exit and should be a factor down the line, potentially in the Triple Crown races, once he returns to full strength. It's unclear when that could happen, though.
12. Dance With Fate
It's tough to tell whether Dance With Fate is peaking at the right time after winning the Blue Grass Stakes or if he simply had one outstanding run. If it's the former, he's certainly capable of becoming a lucrative long-shot selection.
13. Chitu
The only major question about Chitu is how he'll handle the level of competition. He's won three of his four starts, including the Grade III Sunland Derby in his last start. That said, the colt has never faced a Grade I field, and his only non-win was a second in the Grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
14. Medal Count
Another horse that took part in the Blue Grass Stakes as his final tuneup, Medal Count finished second against a talented field. There have been flashes of his becoming a special horse, giving him a chance to steal the show, but a lack of consistency is an issue on the Triple Crown trail.
15. Tapiture
Tapiture put together a very impressive resume over his first six starts, including wins in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and the Grade III Southwest Stakes. The hype faded after he finished fourth in the Arkansas Derby, but that could allow him to provide good value in the Derby.
16. Intense Holiday
The elite level of competition certainly isn't something new for Intense Holiday. His last six races have all been at the Grade II level or higher, and he finished in the money the last three times. He's definitely a contender for the Derby and beyond.
17. Commanding Curve
It doesn't seem like Commanding Curve is on the same level as the other horses in the race. It took him four races before he finally broke his maiden then finished sixth in the Risen Star Stakes. The lone bright spot is a third in the Louisiana Derby, but it's not enough to count on him on this big stage.
18. Candy Boy
An overlooked contender, Candy Boy finished third, behind California Chrome and Hoppertunity, in the Santa Anita Derby and won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes by edging Chitu. He's been very good, but he will need to put together a great race to win against this competition.
19. Ride On Curlin
Ride On Curlin is always in the mix, but he rarely wins. He has never finished outside the top four in nine career starts. Only twice has he found the winner's circle, however, and one of those was 10 months ago to break his maiden. He's a good exotic wager option, but winning would be a surprise.
20. Wicked Strong
It's fair to wonder whether the outlook for the race would be at least partially different if Wicked Strong drew a more favorable post. His chances took a serious hit when he landed in the No. 20 post. That said, it's not impossible for him to overcome.
The entire race comes down to getting down toward the rail quickly. Otherwise, he's going to expend too much energy to make his patented late charge. Remarks from trainer James Jerkens that were passed along by the race's official site illustrate his lack of enthusiasm about the spot:
"It might be that speed is quick and they get to rolling in a clump and he can draft in behind them and it'll work out OK. The one positive is that he's not in the gate very long. I'm trying to convince myself that it's not a bad post, but I don't know if I can.
"
Wicked Strong came from behind with a memorable charge down the stretch in the Wood Memorial. If Rajiv Maragh can get him into a comfort zone early in the Derby, he can match that result. But there's a better chance he'll be a bigger threat with a better post in the Preakness or Belmont.
21. Pablo Del Monte (Scratched)
Pablo Del Monte had an opportunity to join the field after Hoppertunity dropped out, but the ownership group opted to scratch him instead. It could turn out to be a wise decision should he draw a more favorable post as a fresh horse in the Preakness.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
