Kentucky Derby 2014 Horses and Jockeys with Best Post Positions and Odds
The 2014 Kentucky Derby landscape took an unexpected twist when trainer Bob Baffert announced Thursday that Hoppertunity, the No. 2 morning-line favorite, would not start in the 140th annual Run for the Roses.
BloodHorse.com's Esther Harr reported the news, which caused a bit of a shake-up from Wednesday's post position draw:
Pablo Del Monte replaces Hoppertunity in the field of 20 for the time being, but Wesley Ward says that his horse may not start since he was pushed into the farthest post from the rail, per Jonathan Lintner of The Courier-Journal:
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But the past three winners in the first leg of the Triple Crown have come from the six-slot auxiliary gate, which encompasses the 15th post through the end. Perhaps Ward will have a change of heart, even though his horse is being given just a 50-1 shot to get to the winner's circle.
Hoppertunity's absence makes things a bit easier on 5-2 favorite California Chrome, yet his morning-line odds didn't budge when the field adjusted. There are a couple of other horses with capable jockeys that are starting from ideal posts to thrive at Churchill Downs.
Below is an overview of the entire field as it now stands, followed by analysis on the prohibitive favorite, along with two other contenders to watch for.
| 1 | Vicar's In Trouble | Rosie Napravnik | Mike Maker | 20-1 |
| 2 | Harry's Holiday | Corey Lanerie | Mike Maker | 50-1 |
| 3 | Uncle Sigh | Irad Ortiz Jr. | Gary Contessa | 30-1 |
| 4 | Danza | Joe Bravo | Todd Pletcher | 8-1 |
| 5 | California Chrome | Victor Espinoza | Art Sherman | 5-2 |
| 6 | Samraat | Jose Ortiz | Rick Violette Jr. | 15-1 |
| 7 | We Miss Artie | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 50-1 |
| 8 | General A Rod | Joel Rosario | Mike Maker | 15-1 |
| 9 | Vinceremos | Joe Rocco Jr. | Todd Pletcher | 30-1 |
| 10 | Wildcat Red | Luis Saez | Jose Garoffalo | 15-1 |
| scratched | Hoppertunity | Mike Smith | Bob Baffert | scratched |
| 11 | Dance With Fate | Corey Nakatani | Peter Eurton | 20-1 |
| 12 | Chitu | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | 20-1 |
| 13 | Medal Count | Robby Albarado | Dale Romans | 20-1 |
| 14 | Tapiture | Ricardo Santana Jr. | Steve Asmussen | 12-1 |
| 15 | Intense Holiday | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 8-1 |
| 16 | Commanding Curve | Shaun Bridgmohan | Dallas Stewart | 50-1 |
| 17 | Candy Boy | Gary Stevens | John Sadler | 15-1 |
| 18 | Ride On Curlin | Calvin Borel | Billy Gowan | 15-1 |
| 19 | Wicked Strong | Rajiv Maragh | Jimmy Jerkens | 6-1 |
| 20 | Pablo Del Monte | Jeffrey Sanchez | Wesley Ward | 50-1 |
California Chrome (Victor Espinoza, Post No. 5)
History suggests that jockey Victor Espinoza will fare well from the fifth post. That's where he began in 2002 aboard eventual champion War Emblem and also went on to claim victory at the Preakness Stakes that year.
Winning the Santa Anita Derby proved that California Chrome could compete with a Grade 1 crowd, and it marked his fourth straight win with Espinoza in the saddle. This duo has an evident rapport and has yet to explore the horse's full potential.
However, the draw could have worked a little bit more in California Chrome's favor if he were further from the rail. Uncle Sigh is a speedy long shot in the No. 3 spot, and in the fourth is Arkansas Derby winner Danza, who is a bit of an unknown commodity, given his limited experience.
With Rosie Napravnik trying to get Vicar's In Trouble off the rail in the No. 1 spot as quickly as possible, traffic is going to be a legitimate issue in all likelihood.
California Chrome doesn't get out of the gates particularly fast, though he tends to cruise from there—similar to how Olympic sprinter Usain Bolt has pulled away from his peers in the past. Espinoza has a great feel for the horse, so it's just a matter of being within striking distance after the first half-mile or so.
Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports hinted that while the fifth position wasn't exactly ideal, the draw could have been far worse for the odds-on favorite:
As long as Espinoza is able to walk the line of not pushing California Chrome too hard too soon and he remains in the hunt after the initial cluster, they could very well be a winning Kentucky Derby combination for trainer Art Sherman.
General A Rod (Joel Rosario, Post No. 8)
In the irons for General A Rod is Joel Rosario, who was second only to Javier Castellano in 2013 earnings. Last season was a breakout of sorts for the jockey, as Rosario won the Kentucky Derby aboard Orb and also won the Dubai World Cup with Animal Kingdom.
His debut at Churchill Downs came in 2010, where he finished just outside the money in fourth with Make Music For Me. To say he likes this venue and the big stage is an understatement, and he also knows how to pick the proper horses to mount.
This last Monday, Skychai Racing and Starlight Racing bought General A Rod. River Road Asset Management firm chief investment officer Jim Shircliff spoke about his conversations with trainer Mike Maker leading up to the sale and why he thinks General A Rod is a worthy investment, per Jennie Rees of The Courier-Journal:
"[...] Mike let me know the first time they ever wanted to sell part of the horse. That was back in January. As soon as we indicated an interest, the price went up and we never got a deal done. I thought it was dead. Late last week, Mike said the guy wants to sell again...The Florida Derby, Joel lost his iron at one point, he was wide. He still only lost by a length and a half. Mike said, "Jimmy, he’s a contender."
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General A Rod has had a strong run up to the Kentucky Derby, finishing runner-up in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes in a close duel with Wildcat Red (more on him in a moment). Those two horses were in the Florida Derby field and finished second and third, with Wildcat Red getting the better of him again.
Only a long shot in Vinceremos sits between those two in the post-position lineup, so they should feed off each other yet again and drive on to strong performances in pursuit of the first Triple Crown jewel.
Wildcat Red (Luis Saez, Post No. 10)
Hoppertunity would have been right next to Wildcat Red in the starting gates, but it wasn't meant to be. That should free up trainer Jose Garoffalo's entrant to make an even stronger push toward the rail in the beginning.
Luis Saez is a rising jockey but one who seems poised for a breakthrough, similar to what happened for Rosario in last year's Kentucky Derby. In 2013, Saez was the runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Classic, which is one of the most significant graded-stakes races outside of the Triple Crown campaign.
Mike Welsch of the Daily Racing Form alluded to the disappointing work that Wildcat Red did at Churchill Downs this past week, implying that the track didn't suit him:
The pure results even from his two-year-old season suggest that Wildcat Red is the ultimate gamer, for lack of a better term. Never has he finished worse than second in seven previous starts, and he nearly won his maiden Grade 1 run at Gulfstream Park in the Florida Derby, if not for Constitution beating him at the finish by no more than a neck.
Since he was nearly able to go wire-to-wire in that race, Wildcat Red has the pace to contend in the Kentucky Derby. Saez just has to make sure he doesn't break too early. That lesson should have been learned in Florida, and Garoffalo has almost certainly used it as a point of emphasis in discussing strategy with Saez.
The fact that familiar foes in General A Rod and Wildcat Red are so close together, without elite competition in their proximity absent Hoppertunity, should bode well for their chances. Both of them should contribute to a strong pace throughout and be among the leaders.
California Chrome has a tough road to navigate before the first turn, but if Espinoza can hold him steady to that point, he's going to be hard to beat. But don't discount Rosario from being a serious challenger for his second straight triumph at this race, and Saez has all the ability to win the big one.
These three horses stand out as rather fortunate beneficiaries to the sudden scratch of Hoppertunity. Now the question is whether their jockeys can capitalize on their favorable situations and translate them to great results.
Note: Statistics are courtesy of Equibase.com.
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