Kentucky Derby Picks 2014: Updated Odds and Predictions with Post Positions Set

Upon the conclusion of Wednesday's draw, the field for the 2014 Kentucky Derby was set—or so we thought.

Early on Thursday, there were concerns about the absence of Hoppertunity, according to a tweet from Mike Welsch of the Daily Racing Form:

Shortly after, the Lexington Herald-Leader tweeted what was feared, Hoppertunity was dealing with a left foot issue and would not run in this year's race:

The scratch of Hoppertunity paved the way for Pablo Del Monte to join the field, according to this tweet from the Daily Racing Forum's Jay Privman:

This led to an overhaul of post positions and gave new odds to plenty of contenders. Here's how the field and odds look after the changes:

Post	Horse	Odds
1	Vicar's In Trouble	20-1
2	Harry's Holiday	50-1
3	Uncle Sigh	30-1
4	Danza	8-1
5	California Chrome	5-2
6	Samraat	15-1
7	We Miss Artie	50-1
8	General A Rod	15-1
9	Vinceremos	30-1
10	Wildcat Red	15-1
11	Dance With Fate	20-1
12	Chitu	20-1
13	Medal Count	20-1
14	Tapiture	12-1
15	Intense Holiday	8-1
16	Commanding Curve	50-1
17	Candy Boy	15-1
18	Ride On Curlin	15-1
19	Wicked Strong	6-1
20	Pablo Del Monte	50-1

Analysis

Morry Gash/Associated Press

Hoppertunity was arguably one of the strongest horses in the field. The scratch not only shifts the odds of the Run for the Roses, but predicting the race changes in a big way as well.

Here's a look at how things could potentially unfold.

California Chrome is a bit further inside than trainer Art Sherman would have liked; however, this has been the most dominant horse in recent history. There hasn't been a horse in this year's field that proved capable of defeating Chrome this season.

The No. 5 post gets slightly tougher being sandwiched between Danza and Samraat—two horses very capable of starting and finishing strong. But expect Chrome to smartly avoid traffic and finish strong, as per usual.

Wicked Strong drew the far outside post at No. 20 on Wednesday but now moves in one spot to 19 after the scratch of Hoppertunity.

This must come as great news to trainer James Jerkens, who looked rather unsettled during an interview with Darren Rogers of KentuckyDerby.com:

"

It might be that speed is quick and they get to rolling in a clump and he can draft in behind them and it'll work out OK. The one positive is that he's not in the gate very long. I'm trying to convince myself that it's not a bad post, but I don't know if I can.

"

Jerkens can rest a little easier now.

Wicked Strong is a horse very capable of making up ground down the final furlong. With a great amount of stamina and closing speed, this finisher should see the front of the pack before the race concludes.

Starting in gate 10 is a blessing, and Wildcat Red is the horse to land in that position this year.

This horse can be quick out of the gate and has the opportunity to set the pace early. Wildcat Red will have to fend off big finishers such as California Chrome and Wicked Strong down the final furlong, but should have enough gas left in the tank to finish in the money.

Prediction

Morry Gash/Associated Press

First Place: California Chrome

Second Place: Wicked Strong

Third Place: Wildcat Red